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Forget the Black Swans; the Vultures already Circling us Are Bad Enough to Kill us
Forget the Black Swans; the Vultures already Circling us Are Bad Enough to Kill us There is certainly more coming to eat away at your finances as infamous bankster Jamie Dimon laid out quite broadly and plainly this week. Photo by Abhishek Singh on Unsplash Jamie Dimon never saw a dying bank he didn’t want to eat. Yet, […]
Should we have predicted Black Swan events like COVID and the war in Ukraine? Where is the next crisis coming from?
Should we have predicted Black Swan events like COVID and the war in Ukraine? Where is the next crisis coming from? A Ukrainian serviceman looks out from inside a tank and as the war with Russian rages it’s not unthinkable that Vladimir Putin will unleash nuclear weapons.(Reuters) Who predicted the 2008 global financial crash? COVID? The war […]
A potential ‘black swan’ for US oil prices is being overlooked: unreliable electricity grids
A potential ‘black swan’ for US oil prices is being overlooked: unreliable electricity grids Failing power grids and electricity shortages across the US could throw the oil market into chaos. Photo by: Planet One Images/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images Failing US power grids could be the next vulnerability in the supply chain for oil, energy […]
Black Swan Event? Top US Fertilizer Producer Hit With Rail Delays To Midwest
Black Swan Event? Top US Fertilizer Producer Hit With Rail Delays To Midwest A fertilizer supply shock is imminent for US farmers as CF Industries Holdings, Inc. warned Thursday that rail shipments of crop nutrients would be reduced to top agricultural states, which couldn’t come at the worst time as the Northern Hemisphere spring planting season is […]
The Black Elephant in the Room
The Black Elephant in the Room ALMOST EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT YOU MEAN NOW WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT BLACK SWANS That unexpected event, which upends all the plans you had and turns your life – or everyone’s – upside down. An apparent surprise, but which, once the event has happened, is rationalized, making it seem predictable and giving […]
Markets and Black Swans
Markets and Black Swans I began studying complexity theory as a consequence of my involvement with Long-Term Capital Management, LTCM, the hedge fund that collapsed in 1998 after derivatives trading strategies went catastrophically wrong. After the collapse and subsequent rescue, I chatted with one of the LTCM partners who ran the firm about what went […]
Black Swans, Dead Cats, Live Bats, and Goodbye to All That
Black Swans, Dead Cats, Live Bats, and Goodbye to All That Had enough excitement yet? At least the stock markets are following an established script: the bubble pops, the elevator drops, for a while it stops… and then investments sink to the deepest sub-basement, where they linger for a long, long time. Hello, next great […]
Global Financial System Is A Big Rube Goldberg Machine
Global Financial System Is A Big Rube Goldberg Machine While pondering the current economy that is becoming more of a conundrum every day, I stumbled upon an analogy I would like to share. The global economy is like a giant “Rube Goldberg” machine. It is a ridiculously complicated contraption built to perform what should normally be a […]
MAULDIN: One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018
MAULDIN: One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018 Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis. By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses […]
The Sound of One Wing Flapping
The Sound of One Wing Flapping And suddenly the storms of early Trumptopia subside, or seem to. The surface of things turns eerily placid as the sweets of May sweep away the toils of an elongated mud season. Somebody stuffed Kim Jong Un back in his bunker with a carton of Kools and the Vin […]
Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016
Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016 If you’re the type who likes black swans this has been the month for you. On the political front, Portugal’s Socialists, led by Antonio Costa, formed an alliance with the Left Bloc and the Communists on the way to overthrowing the Passos Coelho government and presaging a repudiation of Berlin’s brand […]
A Black Swan Lands In Southern Austria: The Ripple Effects Of “Mini-Greece Going Off In The Heartland Of Europe”
A Black Swan Lands In Southern Austria: The Ripple Effects Of “Mini-Greece Going Off In The Heartland Of Europe” By far the most notable news of the past week, which has still gone largely unnoticed by the greater investing community whose focus instead was on whether algos would ramp the Nasdaq to 5000, and keep the S&P […]
Monetary System, World Order We’ve Had Since 1940’s Are Collapsing: Richard Maybury
Monetary System, World Order We’ve Had Since 1940’s Are Collapsing: Richard Maybury Richard Maybury has been predicting ‘black swan’ events in his newsletter Early Warning Report for the last two decades. In a recent conversation, he put his finger on something happening around the world. He sees a growing anxiety about global events – “everybody knows there’s […]
The Myth of Black Swan Market Events
The Myth of Black Swan Market Events Mark Spitznagel is the founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, and the author of “The Dao of Capital.” As André Gide, the French Nobel laureate in literature, once said, “Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything […]
