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“Virtually Everybody Knew This Was Coming”

“Virtually Everybody Knew This Was Coming” Was it Turkey’s “executive presidency” and its unwillingness to hike rates in the face of soaring inflation? Or maybe the record global debt accumulated over the past decade? Maybe the artificially low interest rates? Or perhaps it was the pervasive current account deficits amid easy outside capital. How about […]

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Turkey Rules Out Capital Controls As Germany Says IMF Bailout “Would Be Helpful”

Turkey Rules Out Capital Controls As Germany Says IMF Bailout “Would Be Helpful” During this morning’s conference call organized by Citi, HSBC and other banks with “thousands”  of investors, Turkey’s Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak – the Jared Kushner of Turkey  – eased nerves when in an attempt to bolster confidence, said that capital controls […]

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Always Blame Your Enemy – Turkey is Endangering the Entire World Economy

Always Blame Your Enemy – Turkey is Endangering the Entire World Economy COMMENT: Marty, On Aug 12/18 you wrote about “Iran and & Turkey Ripe for Revolution?” and in that blog, you mentioned … They will both turn toward Russia for help and portray their political crisis as a CIA plot. When watching the news […]

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Boiling A Turkey

Boiling A Turkey There is an age old fable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will try and save itself. However, if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive […]

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The Turkish Emerging Market Timebomb

YASIN AKGUL/AFP/Getty Images The Turkish Emerging Market Timebomb As the Turkish lira continues to depreciate against the dollar, fears of a classic emerging-market crisis have come to the fore. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s populist economic policies have finally caught up to him, and sooner or later, he will have to make nice with his […]

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US Sanctions Foster Emergence of Multipolar World

US Sanctions Foster Emergence of Multipolar World Russia, Iran, China, and now Turkey are in the same boat, as all have become the target of US sanctions. But none of those nations has bowed under the pressure. Russia had foreseen the developments in advance and took timely measures to protect itself. The Turkish national currency, the lira, […]

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Economic Contagion? Central Banks Are The Real Culprit

Economic Contagion? Central Banks Are The Real Culprit The mainstream news has been awash lately in talk over the danger of economic “contagion,” primarily due to lack of dollar liquidity in emerging markets. This lack of liquidity is being pegged as a trigger for instability in stocks, bonds and forex markets around the world, and […]

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16 Billion Reasons Why Turkey’s Currency Crisis Will Become A Debt Crisis

16 Billion Reasons Why Turkey’s Currency Crisis Will Become A Debt Crisis Earlier this week, when the Turkish lira imploded over the weekend, plunging by the most on record in two consecutive days, bonds of Turkish banks tumbled amid concerns that lira’s slump this year would makes it extremely difficult for lenders to repay dollar-denominated […]

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Turkey Joins Russia In Liquidating US Treasuries

Turkey Joins Russia In Liquidating US Treasuries Last month, when we reported that Russia had liquidated the bulk of its US Treasury holdings in just two months, we said that “we can’t help but wonder – as the Yuan-denominated oil futures were launched, trade wars were threatened, and as more sanctions were unleashed on Russia […]

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These people lost one-third of their savings in a single week (not in crypto)

These people lost one-third of their savings in a single week (not in crypto) Let me say up front– I know I’ve been a bit quiet lately. It happens every year around this time when I hold the annual Liberty and Entrepreneurship Camp that I’ve been sponsoring for the past nine years. The event is […]

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America’s Lengthening Enemies List

America’s Lengthening Enemies List Friday, deep into the 17th year of America’s longest war, Taliban forces overran Ghazni, a provincial capital that sits on the highway from Kabul to Kandahar. The ferocity of the Taliban offensive brought U.S. advisers along with U.S. air power, including a B-1 bomber, into the battle. “As the casualty toll […]

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Talk Cold Turkey

Talk Cold Turkey Henri Matisse View of Nôtre Dame 1914 Recep Tayyip Erdogan became Prime Minister of Turkey in 2003. His AKP party had won a major election victory in 2002, but Erdogan was banned from political office until his predecessor Gül annulled the ban. Which he had gotten in 1997 for reciting an old […]

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That Escalated Quickly: The Emerging Market Currency Crisis Of 2018 Threatens To Destabilize The Entire Global Financial System

That Escalated Quickly: The Emerging Market Currency Crisis Of 2018 Threatens To Destabilize The Entire Global Financial System We haven’t seen emerging market currencies crash like this in over a decade, and analysts are warning that if this continues we could witness a devastating global debt crisis.  Over the past decade, there has been an […]

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Weekly Commentary: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff)

Weekly Commentary: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff) The Turkish lira sank 13.7% in chaotic Friday trading. The lira’s 21.0% “worst week in 17 years” collapse pushed y-t-d losses to 41.1%. Turkish 10-year yields spiked to almost 21%, before retreating somewhat. After beginning the year at 155, Turkey sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spiked 166 bps […]

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Russell Napier: “Turkey Will Be The Largest EM Default Of All Time”

Russell Napier: “Turkey Will Be The Largest EM Default Of All Time” Regular readers of the Fortnightly will know that The Solid Ground has long forecast a major debt default in Turkey. More specifically, the forecast remains that the country will impose capital controls enforcing a near total loss of US$500bn of credit assets held […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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