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Catalan Secessionists Set To Win Election Amid Record Turnout
Catalan Secessionists Set To Win Election Amid Record Turnout
On Friday we previewed what we said could be the next European black swan.
In short, elections in Catalonia on Sunday were a proxy for an independence referendum.
The outcome is critical for several reasons, not the least of which are i) Spain’s debt-to-GDP ratio could spike to 125% in an independence scenario, ii) Catalonia would likely be forced out of the euro in the event they secede, iii) the impact on social stability is decisively unclear, iv) Catalonia accounts for nearly a fifth of Spanish GDP.
Here are the results, tallied amid record turnout.
- JUNTS PEL SI WINS CATALAN ELECTION
- JUNTS PEL SI WINS 63-66 OF 135 SEATS IN CATALONIA: EXIT POLL
- CUP WINS 11-13 OF 135 SEATS IN CATALONIA: EXIT POLL
- SOCIALISTS WIN 14-16 OF 135 SEATS IN CATALONIA: EXIT POLL
- PP WINS 9-11 OF 135 SEATS IN CATALONIA: EXIT POLL
- PODEMOS-BACKED GROUP WINS 12-14 OF 135 SEATS: EXIT POLL
- CATALAN SEPARATISTS CLOSE TO 50% OF VOTES: EXIT POLL
* * *
Full preview
Earlier this week, we asked why multiple armored vans were parked outside the Bank of Spain’s Barcelona branch.
The convoy would have been curious enough on its own, but the fact that the vehicles were stationed in the Catalan capital ahead of what amounts to an independence referendum piqued our interest and we asked if perhaps the Bank of Spain was preparing for any and all contingencies. According to the Bank of Spain itself, our suspicions were unfounded as “nothing extraordinary happened [on Wednesday] in the building of Banco de España in Barcelona.”
“By the way,” the central bank added, “there is no gold in this site of Banco de España in Barcelona.”
Maybe not, and perhaps nothing was amiss, but this Sunday’s plebiscite in Catalonia is worth watching closely as it could very well represent the next European black swan.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Spanish Banks Warn of Financial Meltdown if Catalonia Votes for Independence
Spanish Banks Warn of Financial Meltdown if Catalonia Votes for Independence
In Spain’s north eastern region of Catalonia, the fear-mongering and doom-saying is reaching a deafening crescendo. If voters return a majority of pro-independence politicians in next Sunday’s regional elections, all manner of economic disaster will befall the region — according to the defenders of Spain’s established political and economic order.
The doomsayers include the Spanish government, the main opposition party, PSOE, Angela Merkel, David Cameron, Barack Obama, John Kerry, the spokesperson of the president of the European Commission, Margaritis Schinas, and just about every business lobby representative in Spain. Some Catalan business leaders have even urged their employees to vote against independence, warning that a yes-vote on Sunday could lead to them losing their jobs — a major threat in a nation with over 20% official unemployment!
Warning of a Crisis
The latest chorus of doom and gloom came from Spain’s two biggest banking associations AEB and CECA, whose members include Banco Santander, BBVA, Banco Popular, and Bankia. They warn that the exclusion of Catalonia from the Eurozone will trigger “serious problems of legal insecurity” for banks based in the region. Those banks include Caixabank and Banc de Sabadell, Spain’s third and fifth largest banks respectively, both of whom are also members of AEB and CECA.
In their joint communiqué the two lobbying groups urge the people of Catalonia to honor Spain’s current constitutional order and safeguard the region’s membership of the Eurozone. Failure to do so, they warn, could jeopardize the ability of local financial entities to “protect depositors” (ha!) and “maintain the flow of funds to families, SMEs, and to the country’s productive sectors and job creators” (ha ha!):
The expulsion of Catalonia from the euro zone, resulting from a unilateral breakup of the prevailing constitutional framework (of Spain), would mean that banks based in Catalonia could face serious problems of legal insecurity.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Is Catalonia About to Go All In?
Is Catalonia About to Go All In?
An extremely high-stakes game of political poker, not just for Catalonia and Spain but for Europe.
For a nation that doesn’t officially exist, Catalonia sure knows how to throw a national-day party. September 11, approximately 1.4 million people filled the streets of the region’s capital, Barcelona (urban population: 1.6 million), to commemorate La Diada, the fateful day 301 years ago when Catalonia was defeated during the War of the Spanish Succession.
This year’s event was widely praised, even among some unionists, for its near flawless organization, and once again the atmosphere was one of peaceful joviality, resolute defiance and collective hope.
Here are some photos I took in the evening after the march, at an event held in our neighborhood. In the first one, you can see a Castellers (human tower):
In the second one you can see the “Arc de Triomf” in the background, with a massive independence flag swaying in the breeze:
But now the festivities are over, and the really hard work of nation building begins. Hope, catchy slogans, and huge demonstrations alone are not enough to create a new nation.
Institutions of State
A nation needs a viable economy, which Catalonia already has; it needs international acceptance and recognition, which could be a much higher mountain to climb, especially given the threat posed by separatist movements in other European countries (France, Italy, the UK, Belgium); and it needs the basic organs and institutions of state. According to Catalonia’s premier, Artur Mas, these are now under development.
“One crucial task for the next government will be to create the state structures that will succeed those of the Spanish state: the tax authority, for example, which we have already worked on for the past year and a half, or social security or the central bank,” he told the Financial Times.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Spain Defense Minister Warns Army May Intervene Unless “Catalonia Obeys The Rules”
Spain Defense Minister Warns Army May Intervene Unless “Catalonia Obeys The Rules”
With Spain’s Catalan region on the verge of electing pro-independence parties and seeking autonomy from central rule, the government (clearly worried) has ramped up the rhetoric on what consequences lie ahead. In a rather stunning outburst for a supposed democracy, CNA reports, the Spanish Defence Minister, Pedro Morenés, assured that the army won’t act in Catalonia as long as “everybody fulfills their duty.” The Catalan minister for the presidency exclaimedMorenes statement was “out of this world,” and could only be made by “someone who is afraid of democracy.” The army will “enforce the Constitution,” Morenes concludes, unless “members strictly obey the rules.” As one pro-independence minister opined, “threatening and trying to intimidate means that you are only left with stupidity.”
In Novermeber, Spain got a big surprise… Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has a problem. Despite his best legal and propoganda defenses (and harsh weather conditions) today’s symbolioc vote for Catalonia independence proceeded… and the initial results (with 88% of the vote counted) are in:
- *TURNOUT IN CATALAN BALLOT WAS ABT 2.25 MLN, GOVT SAYS
- *81% BACK INDEPENDENCE IN CATALAN BALLOT
The Spanish government is saying the “data is not valid” and is investigating the illegal ballot calling it a “useless sham.” Catalan President Mas says pro-independence parties will meet this week to put pressure on Madrid.
The Spanish Defence Minister, Pedro Morenés, assured that the army won’t act in Catalonia on 9/27 as long as “everybody fulfils their duty.”In an interview with Spanish National Radio (RNE) this Tuesday he recalled that Catalan politicians “have sworn to obey and enforce the Spanish Constitution” and said that he expected them “to do so.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Spain shuts down nuclear reactor after blackout
Spain shuts down nuclear reactor after blackout
A Spanish nuclear power plant was shut down following an electricity failure, local media reported late on Tuesday. Strong winds reportedly caused the blackout in the northeast of the country.
Operations at the Vandellos II 1,000-megawatt nuclear power station, located in Catalonia, Spain, were brought to a halt on Tuesday afternoon, Europapress.es reported, citing Nuclear Association Asco-Vandellos II and the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN).
READ MORE: Fukushima radiation detected 100 miles off California coast
Strong winds in the area were reportedly behind the electricity shortage. The shutdown was automatic following the power outage. According to the plant: “All the safety systems worked as planned” and the there is currently no danger.
The plant has notified the CSN of the incident. The outage did not cause any harm to the environment or the plant’s workers, CSN said in a statement.
Once the power is restored, the plant will be back online.
Catalanstrophe – 81% Of 2.25 Million Voters Choose Independence; Government Responds: “Useless Sham”
Catalanstrophe – 81% Of 2.25 Million Voters Choose Independence; Government Responds: “Useless Sham”
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has a problem. Despite his best legal and propoganda defenses (and harsh weather conditions) today’s symbolioc vote for Catalonia independence proceeded… and the initial results (with 88% of the vote counted) are in:
- *TURNOUT IN CATALAN BALLOT WAS ABT 2.25 MLN, GOVT SAYS
- *81% BACK INDEPENDENCE IN CATALAN BALLOT
The Spanish government is saying the “data is not valid” and is investigating the illegal ballot calling it a “useless sham.” Catalan President Mas says pro-independence parties will meet this week to put pressure on Madrid.
Catalan President Mas speaks…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It’s Official: Spain is Unraveling | Wolf Street
It’s Official: Spain is Unraveling | Wolf Street.
While the Rajoy government fiddles in its endemic culture of corruption, the people simmer with anger.
By Don Quijones, freelance writer, translator in Barcelona, Spain. Editor atWOLF STREET. Mexico is his country-in-law. Raging Bull-Shit is his modest attempt to scrub away the lathers of soft soap peddled by political and business leaders and their loyal mainstream media. This article is a Wolf Street exclusive.
Since taking office in late 2011, Rajoy’s government has been embroiled in one sordid political scandal after another. In the latest episode, the Punica Affair, more than 100 politicians have been arrested and charged with varying acts of white collar crime, including taking kick backs from private sector companies.
Payment often came in the form of cash-stuffed envelopes although, as El Confidencial reports, it could also include completely free-of-charge construction work on a politicians’ property, luxury holidays, hunting trips and even an intimate evening or two with a high-class prostitute. Most of the politicians involved in the scandal are – or at least were – members of the governing Popular Party. The rest belong – or at least belonged – to the other partner in Spain’s (until now) two-party system, the not-really-socialist-at-all party, the PSOE.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Catalans hope for big turnout in symbolic independence vote | Reuters
Catalans hope for big turnout in symbolic independence vote | Reuters.
(Reuters) – Hundreds of thousands of Catalans are expected to back independence from Spain on Sunday in a symbolic referendum on secession being held across the northeastern region, despite opposition from Madrid.
The “consultation of citizens” follows a legal block by the central government against a more formal, albeit still non-binding ballot which regional leaders had been pushing for.
Pro-independence organizations have campaigned vigorously for a big turnout from the wealthy region’s 7.5 million people, and more than 40,000 volunteers will help set up informal voting stations on Sunday.
Pro-secession politicians hope a high level of support will prompt central government to sit down with them and negotiate more tax and political autonomy, or even convince Madrid to accept a full-blown independence referendum in the future.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
EITHER YOU’RE THE BUTCHER OR YOU’RE THE CATTLE « The Burning Platform
EITHER YOU’RE THE BUTCHER OR YOU’RE THE CATTLE « The Burning Platform.
I know many people have no interest in watching the boob tube because 99% of the programming is either mindless drivel or government sanctioned propaganda. It’s the 1% that reflects the deeper themes and moods engulfing our society. Television shows like Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and The Walking Dead reflect the darkening mood of this intensifying Fourth Turning. I wrote one of my more pessimistic articles called Welcome to Terminus in April regarding the season four finale of the Walking Dead series. I essentially argued we are approaching the end of the line and the world is going to get real nasty.
In the six short months since I wrote that depressing article, we’ve seen men beheaded on Youtube videos by terrorists no one had ever heard of at the beginning of this year. Somehow a ragtag band of 30,000 Muslim terrorists, using American military equipment supplied to fight Assad in Syria and taken from the Iraqi Army when they turned tail and ran away, have been able to defeat 600,000 Iraqi and Kurd fighters with air support from the vaunted U.S. Air Force. Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan descend into never ending religious based warfare. We’ve even had passenger planes mysteriously disappear in Asia with no trace.
…click on the above link for the rest of the article…
