Catalan Secessionists Set To Win Election Amid Record Turnout
On Friday we previewed what we said could be the next European black swan.
In short, elections in Catalonia on Sunday were a proxy for an independence referendum.
The outcome is critical for several reasons, not the least of which are i) Spain’s debt-to-GDP ratio could spike to 125% in an independence scenario, ii) Catalonia would likely be forced out of the euro in the event they secede, iii) the impact on social stability is decisively unclear, iv) Catalonia accounts for nearly a fifth of Spanish GDP.
Here are the results, tallied amid record turnout.
- JUNTS PEL SI WINS CATALAN ELECTION
- JUNTS PEL SI WINS 63-66 OF 135 SEATS IN CATALONIA: EXIT POLL
- CUP WINS 11-13 OF 135 SEATS IN CATALONIA: EXIT POLL
- SOCIALISTS WIN 14-16 OF 135 SEATS IN CATALONIA: EXIT POLL
- PP WINS 9-11 OF 135 SEATS IN CATALONIA: EXIT POLL
- PODEMOS-BACKED GROUP WINS 12-14 OF 135 SEATS: EXIT POLL
- CATALAN SEPARATISTS CLOSE TO 50% OF VOTES: EXIT POLL
* * *
Full preview
Earlier this week, we asked why multiple armored vans were parked outside the Bank of Spain’s Barcelona branch.
The convoy would have been curious enough on its own, but the fact that the vehicles were stationed in the Catalan capital ahead of what amounts to an independence referendum piqued our interest and we asked if perhaps the Bank of Spain was preparing for any and all contingencies. According to the Bank of Spain itself, our suspicions were unfounded as “nothing extraordinary happened [on Wednesday] in the building of Banco de España in Barcelona.”
“By the way,” the central bank added, “there is no gold in this site of Banco de España in Barcelona.”
Maybe not, and perhaps nothing was amiss, but this Sunday’s plebiscite in Catalonia is worth watching closely as it could very well represent the next European black swan.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
