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Spanish Energy Markets Roiled Amid Chilling Temps

Spanish Energy Markets Roiled Amid Chilling Temps

A cold snap across Spain is expected to last through mid-January has resulted in natural gas prices more than doubling in the last week, according to Bloomberg.

LNG prices trading at Spain’s Punto Virtual de Balance (PVB) gas trading hub hit a record 51.55 euros ($63.13) a megawatt-hour this week, or $18.54 per million British thermal units as the nation grapples with dangerously cold weather and snowfall in Madrid.

Spain has one of the largest LNG terminals in Europe. “Surging prices, coupled with a lack of available LNG vessels for longer journeys between Europe and Asia, will probably limit cargo exports from the nation’s ports and further tighten the supply of the fuel,” Bloomberg noted.

Frigid weather in China has resulted in surging LNG prices as well. This week Beijing meteorological station recorded one of the coldest temperatures in decades this past week, sending power demand through the roof. LNG imports in China last month were at record highs as demand to heat homes has surged.

A possible theory behind the wicked cold weather could be the sudden stratospheric warming splitting the polar vortex into two, allowing Arctic temperatures to pour into Europe and Asia.

“A strong sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) over the Pole has temperatures spiking in the Arctic, plummeting in portions Europe and Asia.

The remnants of the Polar Vortex (PV) has also aided in unusual heavy snow in the forecast across portions of Spain in…forecast models spitting out over 12″ + of snow in the short term. While these areas of the world feel more “wintry”, it has allowed especially the northern half of the US to run much above normal in temperatures, losing our tap to cold air. Signs will need to be watched getting later into January, however, for the increased potential for cooler or colder outbreaks of air across the eastern/southern US if we can move the remnants of the PV more towards the US,” said Kirk Hinz, meteorologist with BAM Weather

Anti-Lockdown Protests All Across EuropeIncreasingly draconian lockdown measures, economic destitution, and sweeping police powers are evaporating public trust and eroding public patience.

Anti-Lockdown Protests All Across EuropeIncreasingly draconian lockdown measures, economic destitution, and sweeping police powers are evaporating public trust and eroding public patience.

As the alleged “second wave” of the Coronavirus “pandemic” is reported to be sweeping across Europe in recent weeks, many governments have enthusiastically embraced their totalitarian side and granted themselves sweeping new “emergency powers” alongside new lockdown measures.

The public has been markedly less co-operative this time around. Rebelling against the seemingly arbitrary limitations which are not supported by either science or common sense. Protests have taken place all across the continent.

GERMANY

Thousands of people gathered in Berlin over the last few days, protesting the Merkel government passing a new lockdown law. Police turned water cannons on the crowds, and nearly 200 people were arrested.

The mainstream reported “hundreds” of protesters, but as pictures plainly show it was more like tens of thousands:

 

SPAIN

After the Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez declared a sixth-month state of emergency in late October, there were days of protests across the country.

Barcelona, already a hot-bed of anti-government feeling due to the brutal repression of the Catalan Independence referendum, saw violent confrontations between riot police and protestors

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Life Under Draconian Lockdown: I Can Barely See the Light at the End of this Long, Dark Tunnel

Life Under Draconian Lockdown: I Can Barely See the Light at the End of this Long, Dark Tunnel

The process of reopening Spain has been dubbed, rather ominously, “Operation New Normality.”

“Is there any light at the end of this long dark tunnel?” That’s a question many people are asking themselves in Spain, whose government has implemented one of the most draconian anti-Covid lockdown regimes in the world and is now beginning to loosen some of the restrictions. Sunday was the first time in 43 days that children were allowed to venture out, albeit only for a maximum of one hour. And only if they were accompanied by one adult. And under the age of 14.

It was hardly a return to normality, but after six long weeks of being cooped up at home, most of the children and their parents were happy to take up the invitation of a little fresh air, a few rays of sunshine and some open space. For the first time in a month and a half, the streets and squares of villages, towns and cities across Spain were alive with the sound of people.

This being Spain, not everyone obeyed the government’s slightly loosened rules. From the vantage point of our balcony, in the Exiample Dreta district of Barcelona, my wife and I could see many children being shepherded by both of their parents. We could also spot groups of families together as well as opportunistic childless couples who were hoping to blend in with the crowds unnoticed. Some got away with it. Others were stopped by the police and given a stern warning or fined.

Since the lockdown began in Spain some 740,000 people — the equivalent of 18,000 per day — have been fined for breaking the government’s Covid-19 rules, according to El País.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Crisis in Catalonia & What I Saw in Our Neighborhood in Barcelona

The Crisis in Catalonia & What I Saw in Our Neighborhood in Barcelona

As separatist region is rocked by violence, businesses sound alarm.

Two of Catalonia’s biggest business associations, Foment de Treball and Pimec, have called for calm and dialogue after ten days of non-stop political and civil unrest in the separatist region of Spain. At a gathering of almost 450 Catalan business people and executives on Wednesday, the two associations called for a political solution to what they described as “the grave conflict we are living through in Catalonia,” a region that is riven down the middle by the question of independence.

A key passage in the event’s joint manifesto hinted at why the crisis shows no sign of abating: “It is the responsibility of politicians, and not the justice system,” to find an “effective and decisive” solution to this conflict. Unfortunately, political dialogue and negotiation have been sorely lacking in relations between Barcelona and Madrid for a number of years. And there’s little sign of that changing. 

As general elections approach, Spain’s main political parties, with the notable exception of the left-wing Podemos, are hardening their stance toward the Catalan separatists. For its part, the separatist government in Barcelona is doubling down on its calls for independence. If the elections on November 10 deliver enough votes for the triumvirate of Spain’s right-wing parties (the People’s Party, Cuidadanos and the far-right Vox, whose support appears to be growing) to form a coalition, they will crack down even harder on Catalan nationalism, which is likely to fuel even stronger pro-independence sentiment in the region.

A little more than two years have passed since more than two million people in Catalonia voted in a banned referendum to leave Spain. On that day, the separatists were given a harsh lesson in the raw power of state violence.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spain’s Catalonia Crisis Just Got a Lot Worse

Spain’s Catalonia Crisis Just Got a Lot Worse

Massive peaceful protests, along with days of violent clashes, demonstrate that the fight over this region’s independence movement affects the entire country and is far from over.

Catalan independence 2019
Catalan pro-independence protesters demonstrate outside the Catalan regional government building in Barcelona, October 21, 2019. (AP / Ben Curtis)

Now that the verdict’s out, it’s time to start getting along,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said at a press conference on October 18, repeating the rhyme—“después de la sentencia, convivencia”—as if it were a magic spell. Around the same time, half a million Catalans were converging on Barcelona, which for the previous four days had seen its airport occupied and highways blocked while violent clashes between protesters and riot police were increasing in intensity each night. Sánchez insisted on framing these clashes as an internal Catalan problem. “What’s at stake is not the territorial makeup of our country, but the Catalans’ ability to get along with each other,” he’d said a few days earlier. One week of major protests, it appears, did not shake his government’s unwillingness to face reality: The Catalan crisis is something that affects the entire country, and it is far from over.

On October 14, the Spanish Supreme Court announced its much-anticipated ruling on the case against 12 Catalan leaders for their role in the 2017 referendum on Catalan independence. Nine were sentenced to between 13 and 9 years in prison; three more were sentenced to 18 months. The charges included sedition, misappropriation of government funds, and civil disobedience. Oriol Junqueras, the former vice president of Catalonia, received the longest sentence, 13 years, while eight other former Catalan ministers received sentences of 10–12 years and two civil society leaders, known as “the Jordis,” received nine years—all close to the maximum permitted by law. (For perspective, earlier this year the Supreme Court sentenced each of five men found guilty of a violent gang-rape—the “wolf pack” case—to 15 years in prison.)

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spain Battles Self-Combusting Manure As “Heat-Wave From Hell” Torments Europe

Spain Battles Self-Combusting Manure As “Heat-Wave From Hell” Torments Europe

Update (1240ET): Temperatures were even hotter than expected across Europe today and, as Accuweather reportsthe extreme heat wave is suspected of killing several people as it set an all-time high in France.

The highest temperature ever measured across France in the entirety of record keeping was set on Friday afternoon. Temperatures soared to 45.8 C (114.4 F) at Gallargues-le-Montueux in southeastern France, exceeding the nation’s previous all-time record high of 44.1 C (111.4 F) at Conqueyrac on Aug. 12, 2003.

In neighboring Spain, the heat has been blamed on the deaths of several elderly people as hundreds of firefighters are battling a major wildfire near Tarragona in northeastern Spain. About 10,000 acres of forest and vegetation are being threatened by the blaze, which has been described by regional government officials as one of the worst in 20 years. More than 50 people have been evacuated.

CNN reports that the fire may have been started by an “improperly managed” pile of manure that self-combusted, similar to the threat that wet hay bales pose.

Sadly, Europeans will have to wait until Monday for the start of any relief…

*  *  *

Record-breaking heat scorches central Europe as many braced Thursday for temperatures above 100 F.

Wednesday was one of the most sizzling days on record across Europe with average June temperatures and all-time temperature records broken, reported AccuWeather.

Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic recorded its highest temperatures ever during June.

Temperatures were 100.8 F at Radzyń, Poland, on Wednesday, while Coschen station (Berlin-Brandenburg) printed 101.5 F in Germany. However, temperatures in Germany didn’t surpass the 104.5 F all-time high, set in Kitzingen on August 2015.

Czech Republic, Doksany recorded 102 F, hitting an all-time high for the country that was previously set at 100.8 F at Brno-Žabovřesky in June 2000.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Now Spain proposes to go 100% renewable

Now Spain proposes to go 100% renewable

The list of countries, states, cities and towns that have announced ambitious plans to go 100% renewable continues to grow. The latest entrant is Spain, which according to the Guardian plans to switch to 100% renewable electricity by 2050 and aims to fully decarbonize the country’s economy shortly after. Evaluating the full decarbonization option is beyond the scope of a blog post, so here I give Spain the routine Energy Matters treatment to see whether it has any chance of converting its electricity sector to 100% renewables by 2050.


A couple of observations to begin with. First, Spain’s plans are set forth in a draft Climate Change and Energy Transition Law that has yet to pass Congress. The recently installed Sánchez government has a shaky hold on power and will need support from other parties to make it official. But which politician these days can resist the magic catch-phrase “100% renewables”? Even Conservative MPs in the UK are now calling for it.

Second, the data presented here are for the Spanish “Peninsula” – i.e. mainland – only. The Balearic and Canary Islands are ignored.

The table below summarizes Spain’s generation capacity at the end of 2017. The data are from the Red Eléctrica de España (REE) Statistical data of electrical system report 2017:

Two more comments are in order here. First, REE conveniently segregates generation sources into renewable and non-renewable categories as follows:

NON-RENEWABLE ENERGIES: Includes pumped storage, nuclear, fuel/gas, combined cycle, cogeneration and renewable waste.
RENEWABLE ENERGY: Includes hydro, hydro-wind, wind, solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, biogas, biomass, marine-hydro, geothermal and renewable waste.

Segregating the results in accordance with these definitions shows that renewables supplied about a third of Spain’s electricity in 2017. It’s not clear whether distributed generation is included in REE’s numbers, but word searches for “distributed”, “embedded” and “rooftop” yielded zero hits.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spain’s Supreme Court Flip-Flops on Mortgage Ruling After Just 1 Day Amid Bank Stocks Bloodbath, Legal Shitstorm Erupts

Spain’s Supreme Court Flip-Flops on Mortgage Ruling After Just 1 Day Amid Bank Stocks Bloodbath, Legal Shitstorm Erupts

Plunging bank stocks got the Court’s attention, or something.

That was fast: Spain’s Supreme Court on Friday flip-flopped on its own ruling announced on Thursday that had sent bank stocks plunging.

It started like this: Thursday morning, Spain’s Supreme Court did something nobody was expecting. It ruled that the country’s banks must pay stamp duty on mortgage loans, which would set them back billions of euros in legal fees and compensation while heaping further pressure on their lending business. News of the ruling sent many of the banks’ shares tumbling to new lows for the year while also heaping pressure on Spain’s ten-year bonds.

“The Supreme Court states that the person who must pay the stamp duty in the public deeds of loans with mortgage guarantees is the lender, not the one who receives the loan,” the court said in a document. The court ruling on Thursday, which overturned a previous ruling in the banks’ favor earlier this year, was final, the Supreme Court said on Thursday.

But by lunchtime Friday, the court had decided to suspend the ruling in light of the acute “economic and social impact” it was having — meaning the banks were in trouble!

The chart shows the shares of Bankia, which is 90% state-owned. Following the Thursday announcement, the already beaten down shares plunged 10% at one point. The Friday flip-flop repaired some but not all of the damage:

It’s impossible to tell just how much the total compensation bill would have come to, since stamp duty varies across Spain’s regions. As many as 8 million mortgage customers would have been affected by the court ruling, said the Spanish consumer association Adicae.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spanish Yields Blow Out Amid Italy Contagion As Italian Banks Scramble For Dollar Funding

Contagion from the recent surge in Italian yields has spread, and is hitting Spanish 10Y yields which over the past 3 days have blown out from 1.65% to as high as 1.82% this morning, before paring some of the move, printing at 1.77% last which is still the highest level since October 2017.

There are also Spain-specific news that have pushed yields wider, to wit yesterday’s ruling by the nation’s Supreme Court they must pay a one-time tax of about 1% on mortgage loans that traditionally was passed to their clients. The report sent Spanish banks tumbling as much as 6.3% at Banco de Sabadell while banking giant BBVA dropped 1.8%, thanks to its larger international business that cushions the impact of the ruling.

The Supreme Court revised an earlier ruling, deciding now that the levy on documenting mortgage loans must be paid by the lenders, and since mortgages are one of the biggest businesses for domestic banks, analysts have been grappling with how big the hit to income would be. As Bloomberg notes, the sentence is one of a string from Spanish and European Union courts in recent years in favor of home buyers and at the expense of banks.

“The decision implies a severe setback for the Spanish financial system and joy for every mortgage-payer, who might get back a significant amount” of money, said Fernando Encinar, head of research at property website Idealista. In the short term, banks will likely raise their mortgage arrangement fees to compensate for their new cost, he said.

The levy is applied to the mortgage guarantee – the loan amount plus possible foreclosure costs – and could be roughly 1,500 euros ($1,728) on a 180,000-euro loan in Madrid, according to Angel Mejias, an attorney at M de Santiago Abogados in the capital.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Spain: IMF Highlights Rising Risks

Spain: IMF Highlights Rising Risks

The International Monetary Fund can be criticized for many things, but its analysis of countries’ debt risk tends to be worth a read.

In this case, the International Monetary Fund has once again warned Spain of the risk of reversing reforms and increasing imbalances.

It asks to deepen in the labor reform to end structural unemployment and credible measures for the 2019 budget.

The IMF is often criticized on many sides. It is often accused of being “neoliberal” despite the fact that in almost all its recommendations aim to prevent spending cuts. It is wrongly criticized, on many occasions, for being negative on countries. It is exactly the opposite. The IMF is often too diplomatic and, above all, undemanding with governments.

A clearly diplomatic IMF has verified in its last report the important risks facing the Spanish economy. As growth slows down more quickly than expected, the risks that threaten the recovery have increased and many of the socialist government’s announcements could be counterproductive and accelerate a relapse.

In a very diplomatic but forceful way, the IMF warns about the governments’ optimistic and inflated estimates of tax revenues. No wonder, because the average error in revenue estimates for new taxes in Spain is very important, an average of 5.8 billion euro annually.

Inflated estimates are an easy trick to square budgets. Making impossible estimates of tax revenue while spending increases are very real. Then, when deficits soar, blame an external enemy.

The graph below shows the historical overestimation of tax revenues (5.8 billion euro per annum more tax revenues estimated than actually collected).

Spain: IMF Highlights Rising Risks

The Spanish Treasury Inspectors themselves have warned: “It would also be very interesting that those who speak again and again of these striking figures will provide the studies on which they are based to compare them. From previous unsubstantiated studies, inadequate and impossible proposals arise”(Tax Inspectors, January 2015).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

No Other Banks Are This Exposed to Turkey, Argentina, Brazil…. Emerging Markets Haunt Spanish Banks

No Other Banks Are This Exposed to Turkey, Argentina, Brazil…. Emerging Markets Haunt Spanish Banks

To diversify from the euro-debt-crisis, the biggest Spanish banks pushed deeply into Emerging Markets. Now, they’re in a new crisis. 

Almost exactly six years ago, the Spanish government requested a €100 billion bailout from the Troika (ECB, European Commission and IMF) to rescue its bankrupt savings banks, which were then merged with much larger commercial banks. Over €40 billion of the credit line was used; much of it is still unpaid. Yet Spain’s banking system could soon face a brand new crisis, this time not involving small or mid-sized savings banks but instead its alpha lenders, which are heavily exposed to emerging economies, from Argentina to Turkey and beyond.

In the case of Turkey’s financial system, Spanish banks had total exposure of $82.3 billion in the first quarter of 2018, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That’s more than the combined exposure of lenders from the next three most exposed economies, France, the USA, and the UK, which reached $75 billion in the same period.

According to BIS statistics, Spanish banks’ exposure to Turkey’s economy almost quadrupled between 2015 and 2018, largely on the back of Spain’s second largest bank BBVA’s madcap purchase of roughly half of Turkey’s third largest lender, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi. Since buying its first chunk of the bank from the Turkish group Dogus and General Electric in 2010, BBVA has lost over 75% of its investment under the combined influence of Garanti’s plummeting shares and Turkey’s plunging currency.

But the biggest fear, as expressed by the ECB on August 10, is that Turkish borrowers might not be hedged against the lira’s weakness and begin to default en masse on foreign currency loans, which account for a staggering 40% of the Turkish banking sector’s assets. If that happens, the banks most exposed to Turkish debt will be hit pretty hard.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Why Are ATMs Disappearing at an Alarming Rate after a Wave of Branch Closures?

Why Are ATMs Disappearing at an Alarming Rate after a Wave of Branch Closures?

Banks are curtailing “cash services.” But why?

In Australia, banks are reducing ATMs by about 8% a year. In the UK, ATMs — or cashpoint machines, as they’re termed locally — are disappearing at a rate of around 300 per month, leaving consumers in rural areas struggling to access cash, according to a new report by the consumers’ association, Which? The rate of closures has increased sixfold in the period from November 2017 to April this year from a steady pace of 50 per month since 2015.

Banks in Spain have closed around 40% of their branches over the past ten years, on the back of unprecedented industry consolidation and cost cutting. In Barcelona, there are now less than half the number of branches there were in 2008. But it’s in small towns and villages where the impact is being felt most keenly. According to new research, by 2016 as many as 4,114 municipalities — the equivalent of 50.7% of all urban settlements — had no bank branches at all.

Banks in Spain are are also shutting down many of their ATMs. In 2017, the biggest lenders withdrew over 1,100 cash machines — around 3% of the national total. BBVA, Spain’s second biggest lender mothballed 192 ATMs (2.9% of its total stock) last year; Bankia, 301 (4.8%); Caixabank, 47 (0.5%), and Banco Sabadell 541 cash machines, the equivalent of 15% of its total stock.

This is all happening at a time when banks in Spain are making it more and more difficult to access cash from the branches that remain open. As we previously reported, Spain’s third largest lender, CaixaBank, last year launched a pilot project in Madrid aimed at limiting cash services in their branches to less than three hours a day, from 8:15 am to 11 am.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s Coming… Resource Nationalism

It’s Coming… Resource Nationalism

Early 2012 Argentina’s oil industry was controlled by Repsol, the Spanish energy giant, through YPF, its local subsidiary. By the end of the year, this was no longer the case.

By then President Cristina Fernandez Kirchner’s leftist government had nationalised the oil sector, stealing YPF with the stroke of a pen.

The experience for investors in Repsol was an elevator drop so jarring I suspect many were left with their spines sticking out the top of their heads.

We can all scoff and laugh at the poor bastards and say, “Well, what did you expect investing into yet another Latin American backwater grasping at fading socialist ideas in order to stay in power?”

And to be sure, the third world loves to dance to Marxist music, but I’ve more than a sneaky suspicion, in fact I’m pretty convinced we’re going to see it, and not just from crazy bitches south of the equator. Resource nationalism, that is.

The problem for oil companies, and indeed resource companies of many stripes, is that they have to go where the deposits happen to be. Contrast this to industries such as manufacturing, where factories can be built wherever wages are lowest, you simply can’t outsource energy production.

One Thing Leads to Another

In 2016 I wrote an article arguing that we’d see what I called the rise of the “Strong Men” where I suggested the following:

Now I could write an essay on the ramifications but let me provide you with 3 important things to watch out for:

1. Political cohesion and stability can no longer be relied upon as politics becomes inward looking with everything from trade deals to central bank swap lines being renegotiated or cancelled altogether.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Battle To Save Our Dying Soil

This camp in southern Spain is finding ways to restore degraded land

LA JUNQUERA, Spain ― In this sparsely populated region of rural Murcia in southern Spain, fields of thirsty almond trees eek sustenance out of the dusty soil and pale rocks tumble down slopes onto the sides of the road. Successive years of low rainfall have led to serious issues with water security, and some locals say increasingly mechanized farming has been detrimental to the land. This is agricultural country, but it’s clear that these are not fertile plains.

Scan the horizon quickly and you might not notice it the first time. But near a dip in the valley, something unusual is happening. Colorful yurts, compost toilets and an outdoor kitchen dot the landscape. It’s only a 12-acre plot, but it stands in stark contrast to its arid surroundings. Several species of green plants and colorful wildflowers cover the ground, and vegetable patches grow mustard leaf, spinach and broccoli. In the ponds, tadpoles swim in the shallows, and a trotter print in the mud nearby indicates a wild boar has recently stopped by for a drink. Young apple trees are blossoming, and people are digging trenches and planting potatoes.

This is Camp Altiplano, where volunteers are using simple practices such as creating ponds and loosening hard earth to return the soil to health.

“When the first tractors arrived [in the 1950s and 60s], that was a big moment for the degradation here,” says Alfonso Chico de Guzman, who owns the plot of land where Camp Altiplano is located. With machinery, most farms increased their amount of productive land by cutting down trees and shrubs, which are vital for healthy soil, the farmer says.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Return of the Euro Crisis: Italy Quakes, Rest of the World Shakes and Merkel’s Empire Breaks

Return of the Euro Crisis: Italy Quakes, Rest of the World Shakes and Merkel’s Empire Breaks

Angela Merkel, emperor of the euro crisis zoneEurope’s many fault lines are spreading once again, bringing the endless euro crisis saga back in 3-D realism. Italy gained a new anti-establishment government last week, even as Spain elected a new Socialista government that could crack Catalonia off from the rest of Spain. All of Europe fell under Trumpian trade-war sanctions and threatened their own retaliation. And Germany’s most titanic bank got downgraded to the bottom of the junk-bond B-bin.

The Italian shakeup caused US bond prices to soar (yields to drop) in a flight of capital from European bonds, yet US stock investors took this invasion of troubles from foreign shores as good enough news to end the week on a positive note. The NASDAQ especially never looked happier, though financials feared contagion. As a result, the contrast between tech stocks and financials burst upward to its highest peak since the top of the dot-com frenzy:

S&P Tech stock reach levels comparable to the last tech crisis.

While Europe’s troubles apparently sounded like great news to US stock investors, the Italian crisis caused EU bank stocks in aggregate to take one of their largest avalanches in history, ending in a one-week cliffhanger at their lowest level in two-and-a-half years. Deutsche Bank, Germany’s titan of global finance, ended looking like the spawn twin of the Lehman Brothers:

Deutsche Bank alone could trigger more than just a euro crisis

Deutsche Bank appears to be leading the way into a full blown euro crisis like Lehman Bros did in the US financial crisis.

In one week, Europe with its impossible euromess moved back into position of being the world’s chief menace. The Eurozone is a house of cards with many exits, each with their own name, as I’ve written about frequently in the past, and it’s time to pay the never-ending euro crisis some attention once again.

Quitaly looks like next Brexit in everlasting euro crisis

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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