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The Rumors are that Turkey Will Default
The Rumors are that Turkey Will Default The rumors running around is that Turkey will default as Erdogan decides to move to align with Iran and Russia and leave the West behind. While there have been speculative attacks on the Turkish economy and US tariffs and sanctions have been detrimental, the initial causes of this growing monetary […]
Are Multiple “Failed Coups” Leading To The Engineered Fall Of America
Are Multiple “Failed Coups” Leading To The Engineered Fall Of America There has been a lot of talk about “coups” the past two years, not just in the U.S. but around the globe. As I have noted in recent articles, failed coups in particular have been very popular as a way for certain governments to […]
Turkey’s Crisis and the Dollar’s Future
Turkey’s Crisis and the Dollar’s Future Last week’s collapse of the Turkish lira has dominated the headlines, and it is widely reported that this and other emerging market currencies are in trouble because of the withdrawal of dollar liquidity. There are huge quantities of footloose dollars betting against these weak currencies, as well as commodities […]
“Thank God This Is Happening” Russia Says Time Has Come To Ditch The Dollar
“Thank God This Is Happening” Russia Says Time Has Come To Ditch The Dollar With the US unveiling a new set of sanctions against Russia on Friday, Moscow said it would definitely respond to Washington’s latest sanctions and, in particular, it is accelerating efforts to abandon the American currency in trade transactions, said Russia’s Deputy […]
The Weaponization of the Dollar
The Weaponization of the Dollar The Uncivil Civil War discussed the sanguine approach many investors take towards equity risk despite clear signs of domestic political turbulence. The article put the upcoming elections and the growing political divisions amongst the populace into context with market risks. While we read plenty of politically related articles and many […]
The Suicidal Empire
The Suicidal Empire There are a lot of behaviors being exhibited by those in positions of power in the US that seem disparate and odd. We watch Trump who is imposing sanctions on country after country, dreaming of eradicating his country’s structural trade deficit with the rest of the world. We watch pretty much all […]
It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things)
It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things) The debt cycle, tariffs, and central bank hubris have created the conditions for a spectacular unwind of risk assets. Yesterday in Turkey: Lira Bulls and Bears Duke it Out On Twitter I asked, “Is there a bullish case for the Lira? One person thinks so. Most think otherwise.” […]
TRUTH is so precious that she should Always be attended by a Bodyguard of Lies
TRUTH is so precious that she should Always be attended by a Bodyguard of Lies QUESTION: Do you support the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the Iran deal? ANSWER: Iran has no intention of actually conforming with that agreement. But that is really a side issue. There is a significant displeasure with the religious government […]
The Geopolitics of Energy
The Geopolitics of Energy Some brief notes on the situation around the world with respect to the influence that energy has on political developments. 1. The Middle East The Middle East continues to play a major role in the global energy scene. Notwithstanding changes that have occurred in the political situation of many countries in […]
Macro Digest: It’s not Turkey, it’s the debt cycle
Macro Digest: It’s not Turkey, it’s the debt cycle There is currently a lot of focus on Turkey, and for good reason, but Turkey is really only a second or third derivative of the global macro story. Turkey represents the catalyst for a new theme, which is “too much debt and current account deficits equals […]
Weekly Commentary: Instability
Weekly Commentary: Instability With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market Instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, Indian rupee and others traded to record lows versus the greenback. The South African rand “flash crashed” […]
Poland, the Next Turkey? Spotlight on the Zloty and External Debt
Poland, the Next Turkey? Spotlight on the Zloty and External Debt Emerging markets have taken it on the chin. Is Poland next? Murray Gunn, Head of Global Research at Elliott Wave International, asks “Is Poland the next Turkey?” Our outlook for the Polish Zloty suggests that Poland’s developing authoritarianism is likely to accelerate. In case […]
Turkey: A harbinger of a global debt crisis?
Turkey: A harbinger of a global debt crisis? The economic crisis brewing in Turkey seems to have surprised many. This was probably, at least partly, due to the ‘period of tranquility’ created by the central banks with theirs ‘unorthodox measures’. Many seem to have imagined that the “synchronized global growth” spurt were here to last. […]
We Are All Lab Rats In The Largest-Ever Monetary Experiment In Human History
We Are All Lab Rats In The Largest-Ever Monetary Experiment In Human History And how do things usually work out for the rat? There are ample warning signs that another serious financial crisis is on the way. These warning signs are being soundly ignored by the majority, though. Perhaps understandably so. After 10 years of […]
You Should Fear the Emerging Market Debt Bubble
You Should Fear the Emerging Market Debt Bubble Global debt has ballooned since the financial crisis as central banks have distorted markets and fueled debt bubbles in particular. A lot of the increase in global debt has come from emerging market (EM) economies, especially China. In fact, a record amount of EM debt has accumulated […]
