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The Real Contagion Threat is Political

The Real Contagion Threat is Political  The real danger to the current institutional order was just demonstrated in Sweden. While I’ve talked at length about the potential financial contagion stemming from the implosion of multiple emerging market currencies it is the growing political crisis in Europe that will shape our future. Sweden is The Land […]

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The US’s Choice: WWIII or Saving Face in Syria

The US’s Choice: WWIII or Saving Face in Syria Sometimes when I step back from the overwhelming flow of geopolitical insanity I’m reminded of the old adage that coming close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. To which, I always add, “And nuclear war.” I’ve been watching the build up to the operation to […]

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Clarity on the Road to Civil War

Clarity on the Road to Civil War   If there’s one thing that makes this job difficult it is the endless smokescreens. Filtering out the noise is draining. From the double-speak of politicians to the endless manipulations of financial markets by central bankers the world is awash in fake news, fake prices and fake geniuses. […]

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A League of Leagues of Their Own in Europe

A League of Leagues of Their Own in Europe “There’s no crying in baseball!” — A League of Their Own The Great Realignment is coming to Europe next year.  All the writing is on the wall. This summer saw German Chancellor Angela Merkel survive a leadership challenge by her coalition partner Horst Seehofer over her […]

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Defections from Pax Americana Coming Louder and Faster

Defections from Pax Americana Coming Louder and Faster It seems everyday I wake up and see another instance of defections coming from US allies over the behavior of some corner of the Trump Administration. Over the weekend Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte hit back strongly at US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs […]

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Looks Like Italian Default is Back on the Menu

Looks Like Italian Default is Back on the Menu Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini was right to call out the EU over the failure of the bridge in Genoa this week.  It was an act of cheap political grandstanding but one that ultimately rings very true. It’s a perfect moment to shake people out of […]

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The “Magnitsky Trio” Pushes For War With Russia with New Sanctions

The “Magnitsky Trio” Pushes For War With Russia with New Sanctions If half of what I have come to understand about the Curious Case of Bill Browder is true, then the “Magnitsky Trio” of Senators John McCain, Lindsay Graham and Ben Cardin are guilty of espionage, at a minimum. Why?  Because they know that Browder’s story […]

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Russia, Insanity and the Treason that Wasn’t

Russia, Insanity and the Treason that Wasn’t It’s become clear to me U.S. politics is reaching a breaking point.  The level of hysteria over Donald Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin is wholly disproportionate to what actually occurred. Putin declared the Cold War over.  Pat Buchanan agrees and so do I.  For as much grief as I […]

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Five Pillars of Debt Default

Five Pillars of Debt Default Regular readers of Gold Goats ‘n Guns know that I’ve been handicapping a major sovereign debt default to begin here in 2018 or early 2019.  But, what do I mean by that? How does a sovereign debt default come about?  And who will default? There are a staggering number of factors […]

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Record Deficits, Stronger Dollar Equals Record China Trade Deficit

Record Deficits, Stronger Dollar Equals Record China Trade Deficit Sometimes math is a real bitch.   Donald Trump is a smart guy.  I know he knows math. Too bad he’s ignoring it. Here’s the gig.  The title says it all.  Government spending is rising rapidly.  More actual money is flowing into the US economy.  Where is that […]

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China’s Oil Trade Retaliation is Iran’s Gain

China’s Oil Trade Retaliation is Iran’s Gain I’ve told you that once you start down the Trade War path forever will it dominate your destiny. Well here we are.  Trump slaps big tariffs on aluminum and steel in a bid to leverage Gary Cohn’s ICE Wall plan to control the metals and oils futures markets.   I’m […]

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Next Stage of Pressure on Iran – Lower Oil Prices

Next Stage of Pressure on Iran – Lower Oil Prices President Trump is stepping up his attack on Iran.  He’s now planning the long-game for maximum pressure.  The news that Trump quietly asked Saudi Arabia to ramp up output by 1 million barrels a day is the key. From the analysis at Oilprice.com: Saudi Arabia and […]

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Petroyuan is Only the Beginning, Pop Goes the Metals Market

Petroyuan is Only the Beginning, Pop Goes the Metals Market No boom today.  Boom tomorrow.  There’s always a boom tomorrow” — Susan Ivanova “Babylon 5” When Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) bought the London Metals exchange in 2012 all the speculation about about the effects on gold trading.  The primary reason for buying the LME […]

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Will Trump Torch the Global Economy on the Bonfire of his Vanity?

Will Trump Torch the Global Economy on the Bonfire of his Vanity? At least it is confirmed for us.  Donald Trump wants regime change in Iran.  His cancellation of the JCPOA was a decision born his myopia.  He has surrounded himself with people who reinforce his view and manipulate him via his vanity. And the price […]

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Armenia Heats Up as the Proxy War Continues

Armenia Heats Up as the Proxy War Continues Armenia is an important part Russia’s long-term plans.  A member of the Eurasian Economic Union Armenia is key to protecting Russia’s southern flank. So, I was not shocked back in 2016 when the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh was activated by the U.S. after a brief visit by then […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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