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When Will the Next Credit Crisis Occur?

WHEN WILL THE NEXT CREDIT CRISIS OCCUR? The timing of any credit crisis is set by the rate at which the credit cycle progresses. People don’t think in terms of the credit cycle, wrongly believing it is a business cycle. The distinction is important, because a business cycle by its name suggests it emanates from […]

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Farewell to FWS – Goodbye to Gag Orders

Farewell to FWS – Goodbye to Gag Orders Open letter to FWS, sent directly to FWS employees on February 7, 2018. Friends, colleagues, and past FWS co-workers, I once considered the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to be the world leader in conservation, and was proud to sign on! But that was a long time […]

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Necessary Fantasy: White House Estimates 3% Growth For a Decade

Necessary Fantasy: White House Estimates 3% Growth For a Decade Here’s one for the “not going to happen” category. Trump believes his policies will lead to 3% sustained growth. The White House’s budget proposal, to be released Monday, estimates 3% Growth for 10 Years, on average. The budget proposal projects the economy will grow about […]

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“There’s Anger Building Out There” – One Man’s Message To Davos Elites

“There’s Anger Building Out There” – One Man’s Message To Davos Elites One man went to Davos and dared to say what Pepe Escobar thought no one would – that “it’s the inequality, stupid.” Amid all the back-slapping exuberance of record high global stock markets and record high global net worth, John McDonnell, the U.K. […]

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The world in 2018 – Part Two

The world in 2018 – Part Two ‘The World in 2018’ is a world full of concerns about the future, yet a world that seems to be getting slightly more optimistic about its economic prospects. Ten years after the onset of the financial crisis, there are hopes that the global economy may have turned the corner […]

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The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail

girardatlarge.com The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail Credit cannot expand faster than fundamentals forever  Modern finance has many complex moving parts, and this complexity masks its inner simplicity. Let’s break down the core dynamics of the current financial system. The Core Dynamic of the “Recovery” and Asset Bubbles: Credit Credit is the […]

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Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin

Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin Let us not, in the pride of our superior knowledge, turn with contempt from the follies of our predecessors. The study of the errors into which great minds have fallen in the pursuit of truth can never be uninstructive.” – Charles Mackay Extraordinary Popular Delusions and […]

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Un-Merry Christmas: The Perverse Incentives to Over-Consume and Over-Spend

Un-Merry Christmas: The Perverse Incentives to Over-Consume and Over-Spend Isn’t it obvious that if we set out to design the most perverse, toxic and doomed system possible, we’d end up with the Keynesian Cargo Cult’s insane permanent growth/Landfill Economy? Few topics are off-limits nowadays: the personal and private are now splashed everywhere for all to […]

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Limits to Economic Growth?

Limits to Economic Growth? These are notes from a short lecture given at Nottingham University on 28th November 2017. Click on the images to enlarge them. 1 Production Increase During the 17th and 18th centuries the rise of mercantile power, colonialism and a slave economy was associated with the development of the idea that “improvement” […]

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Pool of Funding the Heart of Economic Growth

POOL OF FUNDING THE HEART OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Most experts are of the view that massive monetary pumping by the US central bank, the Fed, during the 2008 financial crisis saved the US and the World from another Great Depression. If increases in money supply is an important catalyst for economic growth then the World […]

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Human well-being, economic growth and so-called decoupling

Human well-being, economic growth and so-called decoupling Some people claim that humans—called breatharians—can live on air alone. Others claim we can have economic growth without increasing our resource use, so-called decoupling. Neither claim withstands scrutiny though here I am only going to deal with the second one. Hidden beneath the claim of decoupling is the […]

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The End of Economic Growth

The End of Economic Growth UK Chancellor of the Exchequer  Phillip Hammond (finance minister) delivered his budget  on Wednesday last week. The tame budget was overshadowed by news that UK productivity and hence economic growth had stalled. In this post I search for the underlying causes of economic malaise and explore the structure of UK […]

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A Video Game Analogy to Our Energy Predicament

A Video Game Analogy to Our Energy Predicament The way the world economy is manipulated by world leaders is a little like a giant video game. The object of the game is to keep the world economy growing, without too many adverse consequences to particular members of the world economy. We represent this need for growth […]

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Monetary Imperialism

Monetary Imperialism Photo by Nathaniel St. Clair In theory, the global financial system is supposed to help every country gain. Mainstream teaching of international finance, trade and “foreign aid” (defined simply as any government credit) depicts an almost utopian system uplifting all countries, not stripping their assets and imposing austerity. The reality since World War […]

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Will China Bring an Energy-Debt Crisis?

Will China Bring an Energy-Debt Crisis? It is easy for those of us in the West to overlook how important China has become to the world economy, and also the limits it is reaching. The two big areas in which China seems to be reaching limits are energy production and debt. Reaching either of these limits […]

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