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The Fed’s Mandate To Pick Your Pocket – The Real Price Of Inflation
The Fed’s Mandate To Pick Your Pocket – The Real Price Of Inflation “Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.” – Milton Friedman This oft-cited quote from the renowned American economist Milton Friedman suggests something important about inflation. What he implies is that inflation is a function of money, but what exactly does that […]
Treasury Announces Record Debt Sale In Upcoming Refunding Auction
Treasury Announces Record Debt Sale In Upcoming Refunding Auction Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is about to surpass Timothy Geithner’s achievement of selling a record amount of notes and bonds as he seeks to finance America’s soaring budget deficit. According to the latest quarterly refunding statement, the US Treasury is about to sell a record amount […]
Fed To Ease Liquidity Requirements For Regional Banks As Brainard Warns Of More Bailouts
Fed To Ease Liquidity Requirements For Regional Banks As Brainard Warns Of More Bailouts On Wednesday the Federal Reserve is set to vote on proposals that would further ease capital requirements for banks with assets of $700 billion or lower, expanding on Trump’s promise to deregulate Wall Street. The biggest benefits will come to banks […]
The Corporate Debt Bubble
The Corporate Debt Bubble The largest asset bubbles occur while economic growth and inflation remain positive, but subdued, for extended periods of time. According to its dual mandate, the Federal Reserve focuses primarily on growth and price stability, and tends to ignore the creation of asset bubbles as long as economic activity is not running […]
Trump Is Right, the Fed Is Crazy
Trump Is Right, the Fed Is Crazy President Trump recently called the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes crazy. Leaving aside President Trump’s specific complaint, which is likely motivated by the belief that low rates will help him win reelection, he is right that “crazy” is a good way to describe the Federal Reserve. When not […]
Why I think the Ugly October in Stocks Is Just a Preamble
Why I think the Ugly October in Stocks Is Just a Preamble Yet, the crybabies on Wall Street are already clamoring for the “Powell put.” Let me just say right up front: The stock market did not “collapse.” It has experienced a sell-off that made some people’s ears ring, as sell-offs normally do, and October […]
The Wolf Street Report
THE WOLF STREET REPORT When will the Fed buckle? In this podcast, I ask: Where are interest rates headed, when will the Fed buckle, and who are the new winners and losers? (10 minutes) “Everyone is worried where things are headed.” Read… Fed’s Medicine “Gradually” Pricking the Commercial Real Estate Bubble?
Paul Volcker’s Fed Criticism Hints at Potential Recession
Paul Volcker’s Fed Criticism Hints at Potential Recession From Birch Gold Group In the 1980’s, amidst out-of-control inflation, former Fed chairman Paul Volcker employed a controversial economic strategy of high interest rates to combat the issue. In that case, the economic band-aid, dubbed “The Volcker Rule”, worked. Volcker is 91 now, and as reported in […]
Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins
Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis. Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial universe and the 10-year yield is the most important price […]
Don’t Expect A Fed Bail Out: What Convexity Flows Mean For Repricing Of The “Fed Put”
Don’t Expect A Fed Bail Out: What Convexity Flows Mean For Repricing Of The “Fed Put” One of the major topics to emerge among financial professionals over the past week in the aftermath of the latest violent market move lower was whether the “Fed Put” would come into play, and at what level, and just […]
Is it the Elections or Interest Rates?
Is it the Elections or Interest Rates? QUESTION: Dear Marty, Thanks for the continuous enlightening blogs about increasing interest rates and its effects on EM’s and others. Today on Bloomberg , they were discussing that the earlier 60:40 Equity bond correlation is breaking down and now it’s 100:0 i.e. both go up and down together. If […]
“Peak QE”: This Is What Share Of The Market Central Banks Now Own
“Peak QE”: This Is What Share Of The Market Central Banks Now Own After a decade of unprecedented liquidity injections by central banks to preserve the western financial system, global QE has peaked. First, the aggregate balance sheet of major central banks started to shrink earlier in the year, a reversal that took investors many […]
The Trade War Is Getting Worse For U.S. Businesses
The Trade War Is Getting Worse For U.S. Businesses President Donald Trump’s trade war is making things even worse than before for businesses in the United States. The trade war has been dragging on for four long months now, and the pain is being felt financially. Companies’ earlier worries are starting to translate into actual financial pain as new orders […]
Kenny Polcari: Fed Can’t Stop Raising & Dow Could Drop 1,000 on Dems Winning Senate
Kenny Polcari: Fed Can’t Stop Raising & Dow Could Drop 1,000 on Dems Winning Senate My friend Kenny Polcari joins me again to talk about: 1. The recent volatility in the markets 2. Why he thinks the Fed must continue to raise rates 3. Why he thinks Democrats taking the Senate could lead to 1,000 […]
Volcker Recalls Another Time the Fed Was in the President’s Crosshairs
Volcker Recalls Another Time the Fed Was in the President’s Crosshairs The central banker’s memoir recounts an awkward encounter with Ronald Reagan. Reagan and Volcker in the Oval Office in 1981. PHOTOGRAPHER: J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/AP PHOTO Donald Trump’s repeated public criticism of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy seems extraordinary, but he isn’t the first president […]
