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Tag Archives: us federal reserve
Keep it Simple
Keep it Simple Markets blow up on Friday on a series of tweets, markets jam higher on the pronouncement of dubious phone calls on Monday. The rapid back and forth has many heads spinning and makes for dramatic headlines as people are searching for explanations. To which I say: Keep it simple, especially in the age […]
Powell Rate Cut Unleashes Volatility Tsunami
Powell Rate Cut Unleashes Volatility Tsunami It wasn’t supposed to work this way. In the rate cut playbook envisioned by Trump, Powell’s July 31st rate cut was supposed to send stocks higher while crushing the dollar. However, when the FOMC announce a “mid-cycle”, 25bps cut, the outcome was not only a surge in the dollar […]
3 Central Bank Shocks Unleash Overnight Yield Crash, With Yuan On Verge Of Collapse
3 Central Bank Shocks Unleash Overnight Yield Crash, With Yuan On Verge Of Collapse There is just one way to describe the plunge in bond yields overnight and the events behind it: the global race to the currency bottom is rapidly accelerating in its final lap with a global deflationary Ice Age (take a bow Albert Edwards) waiting […]
Can the Fed really Control the Economy?
Can the Fed really Control the Economy? QUESTION: This whirligig talk of whether the Fed cuts rates by 25 or 50 basis points is carnival-level absurdity. Does the Fed have the “pretense of knowledge,” as F.A. Hayek, said, that they can regulate the economy like turning up or down the thermostat? I know you don’t agree […]
Nothing Is Guaranteed
Nothing Is Guaranteed There are no guarantees, no matter how monumental the hubris and confidence. The American lifestyle and economy depend on a vast number of implicit guarantees— systemic forms of entitlement that we implicitly feel are our birthright. Chief among these implicit entitlements is the Federal Reserve can always “save the day”: the Fed has the tools […]
4 Reasons To Expect Even More US-China Trade (And Currency) War Escalation
4 Reasons To Expect Even More US-China Trade (And Currency) War Escalation As we noted earlier when summarizing some of the more notable Wall Street reactions to China’s jarring trade war escalation, we highlighted the take of Morgan Stanley’s chief US public policy strategist, Michael Zezas, who said that he saw incentives for the U.S. to escalate […]
The Real Reason US Central Bankers Cannot Raise Interest Rates for the Rest of 2019
The Real Reason US Central Bankers Cannot Raise Interest Rates for the Rest of 2019 The real reason why the US Central Bank cannot raise interest rates can traced back to eight simple words – their response to the 2008 global financial crisis. US Central Bankers reached a crossroad of responsibility versus socialism for the […]
If The Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates Now, It Will Be An Admission That A Recession Is Coming
If The Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates Now, It Will Be An Admission That A Recession Is Coming So there is a lot of buzz that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates – and it might actually happen. We’ll see. But if it does happen, it will directly contradict the carefully crafted […]
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 29th 2019
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 29th 2019 “I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.” The UK is a curious […]
Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet?
Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet? Following the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks bet that greater activism on the part of other policymakers would be their salvation, helping them to normalize their operations. But that activism never came, and central bankers are now facing a lose-lose proposition. ZURICH – In recent years, central […]
“She Has A Flair For Darkness” – Meet The Woman Tasked With Predicting How The Fed Will Blow Up The World
“She Has A Flair For Darkness” – Meet The Woman Tasked With Predicting How The Fed Will Blow Up The World Central bankers have two key roles: the first, and more trivial one, is to set the price of money by adjusting short-term interest rates, something they have been doing since the advent of central […]
Battle for Control
Battle for Control Markets are engaged in a clear battle for control: An active Fed eager to extend the business cycle using asset price inflation as its primary means to generate further debt financed growth on the one hand and deteriorating fundamentals and technicals gnawing at an artificial market construct on the other. Let’s call […]
Who Bails Out Central Banks in Coming Chaos –James Rickards
Who Bails Out Central Banks in Coming Chaos –James Rickards Best-selling financial author James Rickards says “We are still in the aftermath of the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis.” In the up-coming book titled “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos,” the crisis of the Great Recession may be over, but “nothing is fixed.” […]
Weekly Commentary: Central Banker to the World
Weekly Commentary: Central Banker to the World July 11 – Bloomberg (Rich Miller): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is starting to sound a bit like he’s the world’s central banker. In Congressional testimony this week, he repeatedly cited a slower global economic expansion in laying out the case for easier U.S. monetary policy. ‘There’s something […]
The Four Dimensions of the Fake Money Order
The Four Dimensions of the Fake Money Order A Good Story with Minor Imperfections “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there,” is a quote that’s oft misattributed to Lewis Carrol. The fact that there is ambiguity about who is behind this quote on ambiguity seems fitting. For our purposes […]
