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Weekly Commentary: Italian Drama
Weekly Commentary: Italian Drama As I see it, cracks are opening in the greatest Bubble of all time. Serious fissures have developed in EM, Europe and China. Meanwhile, the stimulus-driven U.S. economic boom runs unabated. Global fragilities place downward pressure on U.S. market yields, while faltering Bubbles elsewhere stoke (self-reinforcing) outperformance – and speculative excess […]
One Word: Contagion
One Word: Contagion Terrible news, I’m afraid. The trainwreck that is Italian politics has always been a hoot to watch. But this time around the implications to what happens in Rome are, as Trump would say, yuuuge. You’ve probably seen the news-flow out of Europe. Tasked with finding a suitable candidate to head a coalition […]
Trump Started a Global Trade War Today: Canada, Mexico Responded, So Will Europe
Trump Started a Global Trade War Today: Canada, Mexico Responded, So Will Europe Trump has been itching for a global trade war ever since he took office. He just confirmed one. The U.S. will impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico and the European Union starting on Friday. Trump’s ill-advised Tariffs Provoked […]
After Italy… Spain Risk Soars
After Italy… Spain Risk Soars Political risk in Europe was largely ignored in international markets because of the mirage of the so-called “Macron effect”. The ECB’s massive quantitative easing program and a perception that everything was different this time in Europe added to the illusion of growth and stability. However, a storm was brewing and […]
America’s Incredible Shrinking Influence
America’s Incredible Shrinking Influence Just two weeks after President Trump pulled the US from the Iran nuclear agreement, his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, issued 12 demands to Iran that could never be satisfied. Pompeo knew his demands would be impossible to meet. They were designed that way. Just like Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum to Serbia in […]
Blowing Up: The Italian Debt Crisis, the Experts That Missed it – And What’s Next
Blowing Up: The Italian Debt Crisis, the Experts That Missed it – And What’s Next With the crisis unfolding in Italy, I can’t help but remember the lessons from the underrated book – Fat Tail by Ian Bremmer. This book is an excellent read and explains how political risks can lead to severe economic and social risks. […]
Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman “Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In Spain
Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman “Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In Spain When it comes to the latest rout in Italian bonds, which has continued this morning sending the 10Y BTP yield beyond 2.40%, a level above which Morgan Stanley had predicted fresh BTP selling would emerge as a break would leave many bondholders, […]
Germany Accuses Italy of “Debt Blackmail”: Hello EU, Time for Reform Expired
Germany Accuses Italy of “Debt Blackmail”: Hello EU, Time for Reform Expired For 10 years, the EU and EMU promised reform. None was delivered. Time is Up. Populists have taken control of Italy. Merkel’s CDU/CSU coalition is in a state of panic regarding Italy. The German parties went on the attack accusing Italy of “debt […]
Italy’s Countdown to Fiscal Crisis
Italy’s Countdown to Fiscal Crisis Italy’s current scheme of piling unfunded government spending on top of an already-huge debt is a recipe for disaster. As a general rule, we worry too much about deficits and debt. Yes, red ink matters, but we should pay more attention to variables such as the overall burden of government spending and the […]
MAY DAY
MAY DAY “Japan was the dress rehearsal; the rest of the world will be the main event.” Investor in Japanese stocks, known to this correspondent, circa 2001. “Twitter has taught me a couple of things. 1: there are some incredibly brilliant people in the world. 2: they are vastly outnumbered.” Tweet by @jrsalzman. There are […]
7 Reasons Why European Banks Are in Trouble
7 Reasons Why European Banks Are in Trouble While the euro crisis seems far away as all Eurozone countries ran government deficits below 3 percent of GDP, there is one problem for the euro that quietly keeps growing: the unresolved banking crisis. And this is not a small problem. The Eurosystems´and euro banks´ balance sheets […]
Washington Threatens Sanctions For Nord Stream 2
Washington Threatens Sanctions For Nord Stream 2 While Germany tries to make sure Ukraine will not suffer too badly from the addition of Nord Stream 2 to the European natural gas pipeline network, a senior State Department official has threatened sanctions for the controversial project. Speaking to media in Berlin, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State […]
Europe: National Sovereignty vs. International Conquest, at Stake over Iran
Europe: National Sovereignty vs. International Conquest, at Stake over Iran Europe now faces its ultimate ideological fork-in-the-road, which it has thus far ignored but can no longer ignore: They need to decide whether they seek a world of nations that each is sovereign over its own territory but over no other (and this would not […]
Europe May Fold, but China and Russia See Opportunity
Europe May Fold, but China and Russia See Opportunity And we recently discovered, if it was not known before, that no amount of power can withstand the hatred of the many. – Marcus Tullius Cicero Although European leaders are talking a big game about keeping the Iran deal (JCPOA) alive following Trump’s unilateral withdrawal, there’s […]
Europe: National Sovereignty vs. International Conquest, at Stake over Iran
Europe: National Sovereignty vs. International Conquest, at Stake over Iran Europe now faces its ultimate ideological fork-in-the-road, which it has thus far ignored but can no longer ignore: They need to decide whether they seek a world of nations that each is sovereign over its own territory but over no other (and this would not […]
