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Tag Archives: oil price
Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016
Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016 Since the possible double bottom at $26 formed on February 11th the oil price has staged a rally to $40 (WTI). Traders lucky enough to buy at $26 and sell at $40 have pocketed a tidy 54% profit. Very few will have been this lucky. The trade was stimulated […]
Saudi Policy Tied to Weak Economy
Saudi Policy Tied to Weak Economy In recent weeks I have read many oil prognosticators theorizing what the ultimate Saudi strategy is, or what their end game might be. To recap, in mid-2014, Saudi Arabia decided to pump more oil into the market that was already starting seeing rising supply. U.S. shale was largely blamed […]
Supply Outages in OPEC Countries Push Up Oil Prices
Supply Outages in OPEC Countries Push Up Oil Prices Much of the current oil price rally – up about 50 percent in less than two months – is due to the growing optimism in the markets. That is, the price surge is driven by speculative movements, bets that oil prices will rise. However, the speculators […]
Why Oil Prices May Not Move Higher
Why Oil Prices May Not Move Higher The oil-price rally that began in mid-February will almost certainly collapse. It is similar to the false March-June 2015 rally. In both cases, prices increased largely because of sentiment. As in the earlier rally, current storage volumes are too large and demand is too weak to sustain higher […]
The Oil Short Squeeze Explained: Why Banks Are Aggressively Propping Up Energy Stocks
The Oil Short Squeeze Explained: Why Banks Are Aggressively Propping Up Energy Stocks Last week, during the peak of the commodity short squeeze, we pointed out how this default cycle is shaping up to be vastly different from previous one: recovery rates for both secured and unsecured debts are at record low levels. More importantly, we noted […]
Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating Economy
Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating Economy Fed officials and financial news reporters are collectively wondering why the economy seems to be slowing down, even though lower oil and gasoline prices ought to be a stimulative factor. If consumers are spending less of their money on gasoline, then they ought to have more to […]
Risk Premium Returns To Oil Markets As Geopolitical Tensions Rise
Risk Premium Returns To Oil Markets As Geopolitical Tensions Rise Geopolitical risk premiums are likely to return to oil markets as the possibility of an attack on a large petroleum facility grows significantly amid rising tensions in the Middle East, possibly putting a floor on prices. “The risk of an attack is greater than 50pc, which […]
The End Is Nigh for the Fed’s “Bubble Epoch”
The End Is Nigh for the Fed’s “Bubble Epoch” Market Mythology LONDON – Twice in the last 15 years, markets have tried to correct the mistakes and excesses of the Bubble Epoch. Each time, the Fed came back with even more mistakes and excesses. Trillions in new credit… lower lending rates… easier terms… ZIRP… QE… […]
Maduro “Wake Up” Call For OPEC As Venezuela Crude Crashes To 13 Year Lows
Maduro “Wake Up” Call For OPEC As Venezuela Crude Crashes To 13 Year Lows Venezuela’s crude oil basket price collapsed to as low as $20.20 yesterday, according to the socialist utopia’s President Maduro. Having already “passed the point of no return,” Maduro rages that OPEC producers appear to be “finally waking up” to what they have unleashed […]
Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem
Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it: Oil producers can’t really produce oil for $30 […]
Oil Price Crash: How low will the oil price go?
Oil Price Crash: How low will the oil price go? I have been following the oil price crash since it began in late 2014, providing annual forecast scenarios and monthly vital statistics updates. There has recently been an acceleration in activity and news, and as the oil price has continued its fall to below $30, […]
Low Oil Prices Take Their Toll On Recycling Sector
Low Oil Prices Take Their Toll On Recycling Sector “Plastics,” Mr. McGuire tells Ben Braddock in the 1967 film “The Graduate.” He was impressing on the young man the importance of one of the chief branches of the oil industry: Virtually every item available at the time contained plastic, or was packaged in it. So […]
Why We May Never See $100-a-Barrel Oil Again
Why We May Never See $100-a-Barrel Oil Again ‘Race for What’s Left’ author surveys geopolitical fortunes in aftermath of a pricequake. Pricequake: Recent turmoil could spell doom — not just for ‘tough oil’ projects now underway — but for some over-extended companies (and governments) that own them. Oil barrel photo via Shutterstock. As 2015 drew […]
(Re-)Covering Oil and War
(Re-)Covering Oil and War The first thing that popped into our minds on Tuesday when WTI oil briefly broached $30 for its first $20 handle in many years, was that this should be triggering a Gawdawful amount of bets, $30 being such an obvious number. Which in turn would of necessity lead to a -brief- […]
