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European Dream Turns into Dystopian Nightmare

European Dream Turns into Dystopian Nightmare

Why We Brits Should Vote for Brexit.

As a Europhile British ex-pat who has spent most of his adult life living on “the continent,” as we Brits are fond of calling the non-British part of Europe, it might seem rather odd to be encouraging my fellow Brits to vote to leave the European Union.

Not so long ago — perhaps a decade or so — I believed that the interests of Britain would be best served if the country was a full-fledged member not only of the EU but of the euro zone. I was wrong, but it was a different time and I was a different, more innocent me.

Total Dependence

By the time the sovereign debt crisis hit Europe in 2010, the full extent of the EU’s ambitions was clear: to slowly, almost imperceptibly, weaken nation-state institutions to the point of total dependence on Brussels; and then have them supplanted with EU institutions. As I wrote in a 2014 article, it is the financial equivalent of death by a thousand cuts. The EU’s weapon of choice was the single currency.

Luckily for Britain, its government had not joined the euro. The Chancellor of the Exchequer at the turn of the century, Gordon Brown, knew that sacrificing the pound would have been electoral suicide. Preserving the national currency has provided the UK with some measure of economic independence and flexibility.

For many other European countries, their economic independence and flexibility died the day they joined the euro. As Spain’s economy minister Luis de Guindos recently put it, “the Eurozone is a club where you can check in but you cannot check out.” The main reason for this is that the euro is merely a means to a much more coveted end — political union, as Germany’s Finance Minister glibly admitted in a 2011 interview with Welt am Sontag:

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Debt Debt & more Debt 2015.75

Debt Debt & more Debt 2015.75

1985-2

 

The 1985 World Economic Conference

Back in 1985 we warned that the sovereign debt crisis would emerge and start to really surface for 2015.75. Why this date was forecast so far back? This is Pi – 31.4 years into this Private Wave which began 1985.65.

Tok98SlideForecast

At the 1998 World Economic Conference, we put out this slide with the sequence of events. One question people often ask is how on earth can we make long-term forecasts like this. Such forecasts are only possible with a vast data base. Without that, you cannot even begin. So for all those who are trying to copy our forecasts the real question is – how did they do this without data?

Volcker-TimeThe revelation in forecasting is opposite of what most people assume. They think it is impossible to forecast the long-term and assume the short-term can be done by monitoring fundamental events. The truth is quite shocking. Forecasting the long-term tends to be much easier than forecasting where the Dow will close tomorrow. Why? The short-term is just noise, yet it gets everyone wound up. Every $20 rally in gold brings out the charlatans claiming this time it is it. In reality, the trend cannot be manipulated nor changed even by government for the collective forces of the free market will always win. Even Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Fed put out his “Rediscovery of the Business Cycle” stating this simple fact – the era of “new economics” (Marxist-Keynesianism) which claimed government could eliminate recessions and the business cycle failed.

Burns-Arthur

Then there was Arthur Burns, the Fed Chairman who presided over the birth of the floating exchange rate monetary system in 1971. He too wrote that the business cycle was really INVICTUS (invincible). Yet despite all the behind the curtain admitting that the Free Market always wins, the press, academics in general, and government constantly tell you there is no cycle and you cannot forecast the future so do not listen. Then they immediately forecast strong economic growth the following year.

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This Time is Different

This Time is Different

 

For years, I have warned that we will face our worst nightmare – the collapse of socialism. In the death throes of this abomination that even the Ten Commandments listed as a serious sin, equal to “thou shalt not kill”, government will become the ugly beast that will devour society to retain power. Of course, they will never see themselves that way, but they will justify in their minds that stripping us of our freedom, rights, privileges, and immunities, is necessary to maintain socialism for the good of the people.

Thatcher-Socialism

Marx-Changing World

We are running out of other peoples’ money, as Margaret Thatcher warned. Karl Marx, who sought to change society by sheer force, set all this in motion. What has taken place is really scary, for indeed they have altered society far more than anyone dares to ponder.

Why is this Sovereign Debt Crisis collapse different from 1931? When the governments of the world defaulted on their debts in 1931, there were no pension funds. Government has exempted itself from all prudent reason for you take the state operated pension funds, like Social Security in the USA, where 100% of the money is in government bonds. They may have no intention of defaulting, but very few government have ever paid off their debts in the end.

Then there are states who regulate pension funds requiring more than 80% to be in government bonds. A Sovereign Debt Default this time around will wipe out socialism, yet the bulk of the people are clueless not merely about the risk, but the ramifications. Younger generations do not save to support their parents for that was government’s job post-Great Depression. Socialism has altered thousands of years of family structure following the ranting of Karl Marx. This has been one giant lab experiment that ended badly in China and Russia and is coming to a local government near you.

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