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The Sovereign Debt Crisis Arrives

The Sovereign Debt Crisis Arrives

While the world is turning, the economic crisis emanating from the SovereignDebt Crisis in Europe is propelling a very serious outlook as we head into 2022. I have been warning for the past 10 years that the situation would become critical. I have attended meetings with many central banks over this period warning that governments cannot continue to borrow perpetually with no intention of repaying what they borrow.

The Day of reckoning is arriving. They have been using this COVID-19 whipping it up into a panic for the sheet purpose to bring us to the point where their solution will be to default disguised as a solution for the poeple. I will report on the real state of the world financial system and it may be shocking for most. This is not a question of simple hyperinflation for that even implies that the currency survives, The real outlook is far from the claims of the pundits that keep pitching the same story for decades since the collapse of Bretton Woods. Those in power are already running stories that there will be an armed revolution if Trump does not win in 2024, It would be nice if we even have that long before political chaos upsets the financial system.

There will NEVER be a return to normal. These people have divided the people on race and politics and the key to civilization has always been that people come together when they ALL benefit. Civilization collapses when you divide the people, and turn one group against the other.

The Only Way Out of the Death Trap

The Only Way Out of the Death Trap

I’ve said the U.S. is caught in a debt death trap. Monetary policy won’t get us out because the velocity of money, the rate at which money changes hands, is dropping.

Printing more money alone will not change that.

Fiscal policy won’t work either because of high debt ratios. At current debt-to-GDP ratios, each additional dollar spent yields less than a dollar of growth. But because it must be borrowed, it does add a dollar to the debt. Debt becomes an actual drag on growth.

The ratio gets higher, and the situation grows more desperate. The economy barely grows at all while the debt mounts. You basically become Japan.

The national debt is $27.8 trillion. A $27.8 trillion debt would not be an issue if we had a $50 trillion economy.

But we don’t have a $50 trillion economy. We have about a $21 trillion economy, which means our debt is bigger than our economy.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is about 130%. Before the pandemic, it was about 105% (the policy response to the pandemic caused the spike).

Already in the Danger Zone

But even a ratio of 105% is in the danger zone.

Economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart carried out a long historical survey going back 800 years, looking at individual countries, or empires in some cases, that have gone broke or defaulted on their debt.

They put the danger zone at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 90%. Once it reaches 90%, debt becomes a drag on growth.

Meanwhile, we’re looking at deficits of $1 trillion or more, long after the pandemic subsides.

In basic terms, the United States is going broke. We’re heading for a sovereign debt crisis.

I don’t say that for effect. I’m not looking to scare people or to make a splash. That’s just an honest assessment based on the numbers.

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Britain Calling in Military to Enforce its COVID-19 Restrictions Without Parliament Debate

COMMENT: Has social media replaced civil disobedience, do people vent their spleens over a keyboard and feel that they’ve made their contribution.

When will we see politicians hanging from lampposts?
Cheers A
REPLY: It is clever to call anyone who disagrees with this agenda a “conspiracy theorist” so then they do not have to answer for their actions. I seriously doubt that people are truly aware that this is a major agenda and it is being put forth from so many directions with each expressing one component. I cannot stress enough that our computer has been accurately projecting what is coming. I have stated previously, I question if there will be free elections in the USA after 2024.
Martial Law in Poland
This AGENDA is the acknowledgment that there is a Sovereign Debt Crisis and a Monetary Crisis converging which would normally bring about the fall of governments and sets the stage for war. They actually believe by using this virus as the excuse to justify eliminating human rights and adopt an authoritarian style government under the pretense of protecting you, they will succeed. It is inevitable that such types of governments ALWAYS crash and burn.

This is the Wroclaw Poland Monument to the Anonymous Passerby. This is a striking public sculpture installed on street representing the period of martial law in Communist Poland. The Wroclaw  Monument honoring the anonymous passerby who fell under the ground. People who were living at the time of martial law, know that it is real. Underground was a place where a part of the Polish nation came into being December 13, 1981. Wroclaw took part in the anti-communist activity. This represents our hope, that the dissent which is being forced underground, will one day rise up as history dictates such oppression always fails.

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World Economy Preparing for Collapse

World Economy Preparing for Collapse

The world has changed dramatically in the course of this orchestrated and intended collapse of the global economy in order to launch this Great Reset. In the course of several months, we have watched a deliberate economic disaster under the pretense of this coronavirus pandemic. While the main objective of one group has been the create a New Green World Order, they relied upon Socialists who realize that their economic dreams are also collapsing. As a result, this combined force is out to change the world and the real agenda is the New Green Socialist Agenda. They have pretended that there has been this huge tragically large number of human lives being lost when more people die from car crashes. They have deliberately terrorized people to achieve their agenda.

They have embarrassed politicians and countries into implementing quarantines, social distancing, and have locked down the world population where NOTHING of such a magnitude has EVER taken place in 6,000 years of recorded history. These drastic practices to contain this exaggerated pandemic have unleashed a Sovereign Debt Crisis our computer has been forecasting but never in my personal imagination w3ould I have ever anticipated that this would be deliberate.

The cost of this Great Lockdown is virtually beyond comprehension. We are witnessing people hoarding cash around the world. The magnitude and speed of collapse in economic activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes. Yet the real trend starting to unfold is the collapse in public confidence. We are now even beginning to see runs on banks to hoard cash in China as well. Our sources in China are reporting that the People’s Bank of China initiated a strategic plan in the Hebei province which requires retail and business clients to pre-report any large withdrawals or deposits. They will expand this program in October to other provinces.

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Roman Republic’s Debt Crisis & Led to it’s Collapse

QUESTION: You said that Imperial Rome did not have a national debt nor central banks. Did Rome ever have debts that were not private?


ANSWER: Yes. In all honesty, it was the Debt Crisis that ended the Roman Republic. There was a Sovereign Debt Crisis during the Roman Republic period resulted in a dictatorship and a debt default. The Roman Debt Crisis of the 1st century BC has left behind a vivid account of what took place. The volume of gold and silver in Italy had increased dramatically during the late 2nd century BC following the Punic Wars. We have the first real gold coins issued by the Roman Republic at that time.

However, this concentration of wealth, which was akin to the United States after World War I and II, was absorbed by commercial expansion and investment in Gaul and Asia. A period of excessive concentration of money and large profits came to an end with the rise of the Social War of 91-88BC which was a war waged between the Roman Republic and several of the other cities in Italy (no taxation without representation), which prior to the war had been Roman allies for centuries. The war was begun by the Picentes because the Romans did not want to afford them Roman citizenship, thus leaving the Italian groups with fewer rights. The war resulted in a Roman victory and genocide against the Samnites. However, Rome granted Roman citizenship to almost all of its Italian allies, including the Samnites, to avoid another war. Therefore, we find that the debt crisis was correlated with a separatist movement – which we are beginning to see worldwide starting in Europe, but will eventually become a contagion in the United States as the conflict between left and right erupts after the November elections.

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From “Doom Loop” To Just “Doom”: Italian Debt Faces A “Huge Structural Shift”

At the start of July, we revealed that a familiar force had returned to Europe.

According to ECB data, during May when the market saw unprecedented Italian government bond turmoil, Italian bank holdings of domestic government bonds showed record buying over the month at €28.4bn, higher inflows than those seen during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2012. Visually, this is what the single biggest month of Italian bank purchases of BTPs in history looked like.

This vicious circle of Country X banks (in this case Italy) buying Country X bonds during times of stress – with the backstop of the ECB –has for years been Europe’s dreaded sovereign bank doom loop. And, as Italy clearly demonstrated, repeated and aggressive attempts by European regulators and policymakers to finally break the doom loop, most recently with the introduction of the 2014 BRRD directive, which sought which sought to remove the need for and possibility of bank bailouts, and instead ushered in bail ins, have been an abject failure.

It is also a major problem.

In a note published by Goldman on Wednesday, the bank’s Italy analyst Matteo Crimella writes that “regulatory and supervisory changes, together with the risk of a deterioration in banks’ capital ratios/ratings owing to weaknesses in the sovereign market could, all together, raise the bar for domestic banks to step in as buyers.

In other words, Italian lenders may no longer be as willing to snap up domestic government bonds during market stresses, something which Bloomberg calls “a potentially huge structural shift in demand in the euro area’s second-most indebted nation.”

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BIG BANG is Here and Ticking

QUESTION:  Dear Marty,
due to 5,000-year lows in interest rates, in 2011 the US was able to triple the debt but keep the payments the same as in 1998. With interest rates rising (but still historically low) in 2017 the US paid the highest interest payment on the debt in history. Could you please elaborate on that?

Thank you for sharing your wisdom.
Kind regards,

ANSWER: This is going to be a major topic at the WEC. This is a major time bomb that amazingly nobody seems to be paying attention to. Rates are going higher for they need that to help the pension crisis. The USA is nowhere as bad as it appears in Europe from a debt perspective. This whole mess is going to explode in our face and this is going to be the serious trend going into the next ECM turning point.

The debts of governments around the globe are going to move up exponentially. This is very serious for some will raise taxes to try to keep the game going but that will cause even more deflation. I cannot express how SERIOUS this is. While everyone is looking at the stock market, others at the dollar and gold, they are missing the greatest threat to civilization since the 12th century.

Interest rates began to rise as soon as we passed the peak in this 8.6-year was – 2015.75. The Fed raised interest rates for the first time once the ECM turned.

The number of institutions calling and governments has been rising ever since the ECM turned. This is not going to get better and it is not going to just fade away. Sorry, if we keep our eyes closed and even hide under the bed, it will not matter.

Where do We go? Is Any Place Safe?

Many people have written in asking the same question:

“My question is as follows. Since we are all connected in this world. Will there be any place at all that will not be affected by a WW3? “

So far, we do not see anywhere in the developed world that will be unaffected. That does not mean it would be destroyed, just impacted economically. We are running our models all the time waiting for a glimpse of such an indication. We will certainly let everyone know if the computer finds such a place. What it appears to be is the destruction of the West’s economy. This seems to be connected largely to the collapse of socialism and government promises. It even appears that many governments are deliberately trying to instigate a war that they can use as an excuse to suspend debt payments which would allow them to deny their fiscal mismanagement for decades.

The computer has been projecting the collapse in sovereign debt on a global scale. Anyone with half a brain can see something is seriously wrong that the national debts just keep growing and we borrow money endlessly with no intention of paying anything back. You have to be a full moron to have created such a system that never ends. Even without war, we are headed into a Sovereign Debt Crisis which is inevitable.

As I have stated, interest expenditure will exceed military spending in the USA in 2019.  We can see that the national debt as a percent of GDP has been steadily rising in a breakout mode since the low established during the 2nd quarter 2001.  We reached a 13-year peak during the 1st quarter of 2014 and bottomed again with the Economic Confidence Model the 3rd quarter 2015 (2015.75). We have rallied once again making new highs and we are headed for the next high in 2020. Thereafter, the turning points will be 2027 and 2038.

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Turkey – Default or War?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, My father was ______ the banker who commissioned you to do the Turkish lira hedging project in 1983. He passed away as you know. I found this material in his files on Turkey that you apparently published back in 1985. Some articles are saying that Turkey is the epic center of debt. I do not get that sense here and I figured you were really the authority my father always quoted. Can you shed some light on this subject?

Thank you


ANSWER: Yes, I remember your father well. You have my sincere condolences. I remember that project for it was very challenging. I had to create a hedging model for the Turkish lira when nobody would make a market. That was one of my earliest synthetic creations.

The Turkish lira continues to move into hyperinflation and it has nothing to do with the fiscal policies of the government. Plain and simple – even its own people do not trust the government nor the currency. Hyperinflation takes place not because of the quantity of money, but because of the collapse in public confidence.

Turkey is BY NO MEANS the epic center of the debt crisis. That is really an absurd statement. Turkey has sold Dollar-denominated foreign debt like all other questionable emerging market countries. That is how they all have sold debt by taking the currency risk on to themselves.

I have been warning that as the US rates rise, this puts pressure on the $9 trillion of emerging market debt issued in dollars. The risk of a major debt crisis starting in Turkey is a very myopic view as we are facing a contagion of a Sovereign Debt Crisis among all emerging markets.

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India Enters the Sovereign Debt Crisis

I have warned continually that the Sovereign Debt Crisis will unfold not so much by people selling government debt, but by the lack of people buying new debt. The greatest peril is when there is NO BID for the new issues because all governments are operating a PONZI scheme. The sell new debt to pay off maturing debt. Currently, holders of Indian government debt have been dumping 4.7 billion rupees ($73 million) of government bonds on average every day this year, according to data from the Clearing Corp. of India. Last year, their net daily sales totaled 368 million rupees.

The Sovereign Debt Crisis emerges when the government is unable to raise enough cash to pay off the maturing debt. India has crossed that threshold so as we have warned, the Sovereign Debt Crisiswill begin from outside the USA and spread to the core. This is how all Empires, nations, and city-states collapse.

World Dollar Debt up 5.2% – World Euro Debt Up 10.5%

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has reported exactly what we have been warning about – the explosion in dollar-denominated debt outside the USA which means a rise in the dollar will see a massive debt crisis. The total volume of US dollar-denominated debt outside the US increased significantly. The BIS reported that the volume of dollar debt of sovereigns and non-financial corporations has risen by 5.2% between September 2016 and September 2017, to around $9 trillion. Euro debt increased even more by 10.5% rising to €2.9 trillion euros. Liabilities denominated in Japanese yen rose 3.3% to ¥48.3 trillion yen.

Sovereign Debt Crisis – Cycle Due 2017


QUESTION: Hi Martin It’s been 30 years since I first saw you speak and this year I’m taking my son to Orlando to see you for the first time. How time flies. That said why have you not talked about the 86 year Sovereign Debt cycle that is forecasting a Great Depression for 2017. Have the monetary powers delayed this?

Thanks for all you do.

See you in November.


ANSWER: No. 2017 is the start of this whole mess. We have bank runs in Greece because the prevailing view is that Merkel will not relent and Greece cannot pay. This is why we are holding two conferences this year because it is very important and it is why I highlighted Greece in the report we issued for 2017.

BTW, thank you for this old hand drawn chart I did so long ago. I didn’t have a copy of it. People do not realize that these forecasts were made decades ago.

DJ20-40-M in BP

We also marked that 2009 would be the turning point 30 years ago. This was equivalent to the 1923 turning point in a basket of currencies back then. So the 2009 target was correct and this implies that the 2017 target should also be correct. This year 2017 will be just the beginning.

ECB Losing Control

Riots 4-7-2016

In Naples, Italy, riots against Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resulted in clashes between police and demonstrators.

Italy’s government had to address the plight of Italian banks which now seems to be significant as both houses of parliament voted to create a state fund for bad loans. On Tuesday, the government announced that they planned to fund the money houses to buy the bad loans. The decree also provides for the formation of a holding company to merge the 371 small credit unions. Therefore, it is placing the bad loans outside the banking system.

The Senate rushed together late on Wednesday afternoon. In the House of Lords, the vote was 171 for the plans, 105 against. Resistance to Renzi’s idea was very limited. Nonetheless, the House of Representatives had already passed the decree while Prime Minister Matteo Renzi had only a very thin majority in the Senate. The crisis appears to have forced the measure through, demonstrating how bad the banks in Italy really are.

The EU rules for bail-ins are breaking down. Each country is beginning to ignore Brussels by proceeding in their own manner and the ECB is really losing control. The new plan envisages that banks can bundle their bad loans into new financial products and then sell them. But who will buy them?

In reality, Italy’s government has survived a vote of confidence in this decree involving a bank rescue. This is now all about state guarantees for banks that could collapse under the weight of bad loans. That day is coming rapidly as all the QE efforts of the ECB will do nothing to reverse the crisis in banking or the economy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Who Will Raise Rates? The Market or the Fed?

Int Rate Rise

Some people are confused by what I mean when I say that rates will rise as we move into the sovereign debt crisis, which will pick up steam in 2017 moving into 2020. We are NOT talking about central banks raising rates; we are looking at the FREE MARKET. As people realize that government debt comes with a risk, capital will begin to shift into the private assets. The market will not buy all the government debt that appears ready to explode. With central banks moving negative on short-term rates, smart money will wake up and flip into equities. If equities break-even, that is better than a guaranteed loss in government bonds. In Japan, the 10 year rate just went NEGATIVE so you want to park money with the government for 10 years and pay them to hold it?

Plus, the risk with government bonds will be that they can convert even short-term paper, of say 90 days, to 10-year bonds. Governments have done this before. As banks begin to get in trouble again, smart money will try to get off the grid. Banks will have to pay more for money as those keeping money in banks move out.

The FREE MARKET will force rates higher. Sure, central banks can keep short-term rates NEGATIVE as long as they buy the government debt. But this cannot continue indefinitely. The FREE MARKET will always win. This is how governments fail. The game remains on as long as there are bids at their auctions to sell new debt. What happens when there is NO BID? That is how the FREE MARKET will raise rates. Smart capital will move from public to private debt and equities in addition to gold and real estate on a VERY SELECTED basis.

The Cycle of War turned up in 2014. We have seen an escalation in international war (Russia-Ukraine) and in the Middle East while civil unrest spreads everywhere. This trend will pick up also in 2017 and move into 2020.

The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis and a Potential OTC Interest Rate Derivatives Crisis

  • After considering the alternative scenarios of Grexit, debt renegotiation, transferring of debt, a deflationary spiral and so on, it is concluded that this will either result (ceteris paribus) in an increase in sovereign debt yields or a decrease in the volume of sovereign debt issued. This is worrying; not only due to the events in Greece and the ripples it has sent throughout the Eurozone but also because elections are approaching in other peripheral countries.
  • The effect that this has on Repo market rates (where “government bond collateral” accounted “for almost 80% of EU-originated repo collateral” in the European repo market) would then have a subsequent, significant impact on EURIBOR rates (EURIBOR being a key rate for unsecured lending which many derivatives – OTC interest rate derivatives especially – are linked to).
  • Given that EURIBOR has remained relatively low in recent years and governments have sought to keep interest rates low in an effort to stimulate a recovery, this would be a sudden shock to a vulnerable, sensitive system.
  • It is further argued (using Keynes’ theoretical analysis) that the sharp increase in liquidity preference and the depression of the marginal of efficiency of capital is, in general, far greater than that which occurred during the Great Depression and that, due to the especially uncertain climate of monetary policy, this means that Central Banking has been the reason why the OTC Interest Rate Derivatives market has been systemically primed for a crisis.
  • I further argue that the potential scale of the OTC Interest Rate Derivatives crisis dwarfs both the Credit Default Swaps and Collateralised Debt Obligations positions that were associated with the Great Recession.
  • It is also argued that the risks are greater than the Great Depression and that, if the money and banking system remains unreformed, the world could be plunged into a crisis that belittles the Great Depression itself.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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