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Tag Archives: risk
Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster
Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster About a month ago, Japan’s giant GPIF pension fund announced it had started doing in Q4 2014, what PM Abe had long asked it to: shift a large(r) portion of its investment portfolio from bonds to stocks. No more safe assets for the world’s largest pension fund, or […]
The Moment When The San Francisco Fed Finally Figures Out What “Debt” Is
The Moment When The San Francisco Fed Finally Figures Out What “Debt” Is The San Fran Fed, in addition to being the lair that hatched the current Fed chairmanwoman, is best know for spending millions in taxpayer funds to “contemplate” such profound topics as: “Is It Still Worth Going To College?” “How Important Are Hedge […]
Adjusting the Fifth to a Finite Planet, Part II
Adjusting the Fifth to a Finite Planet, Part II Editor’s Note: This is the second piece of a two-part post. You can read Part 1 here. Among the avenues by which Takings case law could be adapted to the reality of a finite planet are these three: One: Change the default by changing the definition of […]
Oil Price Crash: Top 5 At-Risk Countries
Oil Price Crash: Top 5 At-Risk Countries Since June 2014, global oil prices have dropped by more than 50%. The drop could strongly affect the economic and political stability of these five oil exporting countries. Oil prices make winners and losers. In general, oil importers will gain from low prices, while most oil exporters will […]
The Catastrophic Costs of Extend-and-Pretend Are About to Crush Europe
The Catastrophic Costs of Extend-and-Pretend Are About to Crush Europe Like a star which has expanded and now cannot maintain its grand state, Europe’s extend-and-pretend economy is now poised to experience a supernova implosion. The costs of ill-conceived policies are always paid by someone–usually those with the least political power. In ill-conceived wars, the costs are […]
Greece and Euroland’s Crumbling McMansion of Debt
Greece and Euroland’s Crumbling McMansion of Debt All the gimmicks lenders press on borrowers to maintain the artifice that the loan is being serviced are financial frauds. Sometimes the best way to summarize a complex situation is with an analogy. The Greek debt crisis, for example, is very much like the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-08. […]
War and Default in Europe Pose Merkel’s Biggest Challenge
War and Default in Europe Pose Merkel’s Biggest Challenge (Bloomberg) — After almost a decade as German chancellor, Angela Merkel faces a moment of truth as a resurgent Russia and fed-up Greeks challenge her blueprint for Europe’s future. As bloodshed in eastern Ukraine escalates and the new Greek government rejects austerity championed by Merkel, her […]
Rates Don’t Matter–Liquidity Matters
Rates Don’t Matter–Liquidity Matters The cure for systemic fragility is not low interest rates forever–it’s a market that transparently prices credit and risk for lenders and borrowers, qualified and marginal alike. One of the most unquestioned narratives out there is that the Federal Reserve raising interest rates from 0% to .25% (or .50%) will crush […]
Catch – 22
Catch – 22 So much of education, I think, relies on reading the right book at the right time. My first attempt atCatch-22 was in high school, and I was way too young to get much out of it. But fortunately I picked it up again in my late 20’s, after a few experiences with The […]
Russian Default Risk Surges To New 6-Year Highs As Ruble Rubble Returns
Russian Default Risk Surges To New 6-Year Highs As Ruble Rubble Returns Just when you thought it was all over… Having bounced post-CBR intervention and somewhat stabilized, the re-collapse in crude oil prices and continued weakness in Russian macro data provided just the impetus for a re-plunge in the Ruble (back above 63.5/USD) and surge in Russian bond yields […]
2015: Now That the Fed Drove Everyone Into Ruinously Risky Bets….
2015: Now That the Fed Drove Everyone Into Ruinously Risky Bets…. It is impossible for everyone to sell at the top before the implosion; the assets are owned by someone all the way down. The central bank/state plan for 2015 is a continuation of the same plan that’s been in play since 2009: drive everyone […]
Oilfield Writedowns Loom as Crude Slump Guts Drilling Values
Oilfield Writedowns Loom as Crude Slump Guts Drilling Values Tumbling crude prices will trigger a flood of oilfield writedowns starting this month after industry returns slumped to a 16-year low, calling into question half a decade of exploration. With crude prices down more than 50 percent from their 2014 peak, fields as far-flung as Kazakhstan […]
Jeff Gundlach: “If Oil Drops To $40 The Geopolitical Consequences Could Be Terrifying”
Jeff Gundlach: “If Oil Drops To $40 The Geopolitical Consequences Could Be Terrifying” In a recent interview with FuW, DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach explained his concerns about the oil market not being “unequivocally good” for everyone… Question: The crash in the oil market is already causing jitters in the financial markets around the globe. What is […]
Climate Change Increasing Stresses on Fragile States
Climate Change Increasing Stresses on Fragile States LONDON—A chilling account of how climate change is already adding to the problems of conflict and social breakdown in fragile states is contained in an advice document to the staff of the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID). “Topic Guides” on a variety of subjects are briefings to staff on […]
