The Catastrophic Costs of Extend-and-Pretend Are About to Crush Europe
Like a star which has expanded and now cannot maintain its grand state, Europe’s extend-and-pretend economy is now poised to experience a supernova implosion.
The costs of ill-conceived policies are always paid by someone–usually those with the least political power. In ill-conceived wars, the costs are paid by the soldiers on the ground and their families, and the civilians who suffer collateral damage.
The costs of ill-conceived financial policies end up being paid by taxpayers, savers, borrowers and those who lose their jobs in the inevitable bust. Those who conjured up the disastrous policies slink away to plush villas or defend their stubborn addiction to failed ideologies in the media (see Keynesian Cargo Cult and Paul Krugman).
The most ill-conceived financial policy of all is extend-and-pretend: extend-and-pretend means if a debtor is bankrupt, then extend him more loans to maintain the illusion of solvency.
Here’s how extend-and-pretend works in the real world:
— If a homebuyer has defaulted, give him new loans, or shift his loan off the books intozombie mortgage status.
— If a student defaults on student loans, shift the loans into forbearance, i.e. mask the default by putting the defaulted debt into zombie mode.
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