2015: Now That the Fed Drove Everyone Into Ruinously Risky Bets….
It is impossible for everyone to sell at the top before the implosion; the assets are owned by someone all the way down.
The central bank/state plan for 2015 is a continuation of the same plan that’s been in play since 2009: drive everyone with any cash or capital into ruinously risky bets. The problem for the central bankers/states driving everyone into risk assets is the yields on these bets are entering the exhaustion zone of marginal returns.
In other words, what worked wonderfully for years no longer works at all.
Another way of saying the same thing is apparent stability gives way to instability and apparent predictability gives way to unpredictability. The hubris described yesterday (2015: A World Ruled by Hubris, Willful Blindness and Desperation) arises from the overweening confidence of central bankers that this same tired gambit of pushing assets higher by pushing capital and speculative money into risk assets can be played successfully with no limits.
But there are limits. A short list of limits might include:
1. Marginal borrowers/buyers: the game now is to lower interest rates and mortgages rates so ever-more marginal auto and house buyers can qualify for ever-less prudent loans.
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