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Kurds in Iraq and Syria: a new chaos is redefining the Middle East’s borders

Kurds in Iraq and Syria: a new chaos is redefining the Middle East’s borders

There is no doubt that most Iraqi Kurds will say “yes” to the referendum and start materialising the dream of the 30 million Kurds inhabiting Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Armenia, a dream of establishing an independent state in Kurdistan-Iraq to start with. Despite the announcement of the Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani that the referendum is only the beginning of a negotiation with the central government in Baghdad (and not a “divorce” from the state of Iraq) he hopes (and most probably knows) that the independence will be recognised as a fact by the international community sooner or later. For certain, this referendum – if its result is implemented – will lead to a redefinition of the map of the Middle East, and the countries of Iraq and Syria to start with where Kurds in both countries control enough energy resources to sustain their “state”. Leaders around the world said – during the war in Syria – that the Middle East would never return to the way it was before 2011, probably referring to the “Islamic State” (ISIS) occupation of large part of Syria and Iraq. But today, their prediction may come true through the Kurds – even though the “Islamic State” (ISIS) “project” failed to reach its objective, that of dividing both Syria and Iraq.

Thus, the Kurdish will to establish an independent state is giving greater power to Turkey, holding the key of the Kurdish future state, and to the partition of the Middle East. In fact, in Iraq, Ankara will play a crucial role in the coming months and years in reshaping Mesopotamia and the Levant. Kurdistan exports its main oil revenue through Turkey, putting Erbil at Ankara’s mercy. Therefore, if Turkey considers the independence a threat to its national security, it will not hesitate to send troops into Kurdistan, triggering probably little effective action or reaction from Baghdad.

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