Introducing The Bulletin, a collation of recent articles focusing upon those predicaments flowing from the ongoing collapse of our global, industrialised complex society.

Middle East On The Brink: Goldman Heads Discuss ‘Interconnected Realities’ Of Markets & Geopolitics Amid Looming Iran Strike | ZeroHedge

Russia’s Arctic Energy Expansion A Geopolitical And Economic Gambit

Weathering The Storm: Experts Weigh In On Recession Preparation

World War 3’s Decisive Battle – International Man

How Will Communities Handle Troublemakers?

Incrementalism is the slippery slope to slavery. Or worse, collapse.

EVERYBODY KNOWS THE CAPTAIN LIED – The Burning Platform

Geopolitics: The Anguish of a Divided World | Art Berman

“Anything Could Go Wrong”. Russia’s Drills to Practice the Deployment of Tactical Nuclear Weapons. In Response to the Deployment of Nuclear Capable F-16s. – Global Research

And Suddenly Things Change – by James Howard Kunstler

Has Peak Oil Become Self-Evident Yet?

Margin Calls Trigger Huge Global Equities and Bitcoin Selloff, Gold Fine – MishTalk

How to Build a Survival Community Before The Collapse

US deploys at least 12 warships to Middle East amid soaring tensions, report says

Climate migration is an urgent reality that cannot be ignored – Earth.com

Psychological Mechanisms To Deny Reality And Employ Optimism Bias

US National Debt Tops $35 Trillion for the First Time in History – Global Research

A Critical Juncture for Oil Prices | Art Berman

Global Power Demand Soars IEA Expects 4% Growth in ’24 & ‘25

Promoting Peace And Stability In The Middle East By Unconditionally Backing Its Worst Aggressor | Patreon

Beijing Helicopter Taking Off: China Central Banker Calls For Direct Money Transfers To Households | ZeroHedge

Climate migration is an urgent reality that cannot be ignored – Earth.com

Planetary Boundaries: Exceeding Earth’s Safe Limits

June 30, 2024 Readings

June 30, 2024

St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2024: Marking the Rise of the Global South Century and Decline of Western Economies

Up to half a million NATO soldiers waiting to enter Ukraine

It’s the End of the World As We Know It. The American-NATO Rush Toward Nuclear War with Russia. Scott Ritter – Global Research

Our Rulers Are Literally Driving Us Crazy

Doug Casey on Insider Trading… Why Politicians Can Do it and You Can’t

You Keep Using the Term ‘Authoritarian’ ⋆ Brownstone Institute

Over 80 UK war planes deployed from Cyprus to Lebanon since 7 Oct: Report

Dam In East Texas On ‘Potential Failure Watch’ | ZeroHedge

Lithium: A Clean Energy Solution with a Dirty Secret | OilPrice.com

Iran Threatens Israel With ‘Obliterating War’ If It Attacks Lebanon | ZeroHedge

Low snow on the Himalayas threatens water security: Study

Groundwater Depletion Maps Reveal Depths of “Extreme” and “Exceptional” Mexican Drought

The Supreme Court Punts on Censorship – by Matt Taibbi

Sky’s the Limit For Our Debt and the Money Supply

It was the media, led by the Guardian, that kept Julian Assange behind bars

Are Humans Worth More Than Other Organisms?

Climate crisis sees rise in illegal water markets in the Middle East

Panama Canal agency warns water shortage “is not over”

From Assange to 9/11 to Supply Chain Failures: When Can You Believe Government Explanations?

Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month

Electing the Next Dictator: Ugly Truths You Won’t Hear from Trump or Biden – Global Research

Trade War Between Europe and China Is Creeping Closer – Global Research

US, UK and EU Preparing for War Against Russia. Reinstating the Draft – Global Research

America’s Dark Day – Scott Ritter Extra

Scale Up Nature

Big Banks Pass an Extreme Stress Test Including 10 Percent Unemployment – MishTalk

As Putin floats peace terms, US-Ukraine call for prolonged war

G3P: Global Public-Private Partnerships and the United Nations

Here’s Why These Troubling Trends Mean Mass Chaos is Likely Coming to the West…

Chaos is Spreading Everywhere! – by David Haggith

Where and Why Tornado Risk is Growing as Climate – and Communities – Change

How To Stay Cool Without Air Conditioning

Heatwaves and wildfires strike across US as tropical storm forms in gulf | Extreme weather | The Guardian

We’ve Hit Peak Denial. Here’s Why We Can’t Turn Away From Reality | Scientific American

Scientists “Puzzled and Concerned” – by Guy R McPherson

Our Propagandized Society Is Like A Sick Man Who Doesn’t Know He’s Sick

What Would Happen If This Event of 41 Years Ago Happened Today? – Global Research

St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2024: Marking the Rise of the Global South Century and Decline of Western Economies

June 21, 2024

St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2024: Marking the Rise of the Global South Century and Decline of Western Economies

This year, SPIEF’s theme was “The Foundations of a Multipolar World – The Formation of New Areas of Growth.”

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual event bringing together global leaders, policymakers, and influential business figures, took place in St. Petersburg, Russia from June 5th to 8th, 2024. Attendees representing 130 countries and roughly 3 billion people worldwide attended. This year, SPIEF’s theme was “The Foundations of a Multipolar World – The Formation of New Areas of Growth.”

Foreign companies are eager to access the Russian market’s potential, despite Western sanctions aimed at isolating Moscow.

Deals involve firms from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, suggesting a pragmatic approach prioritizing commercial interests over politics and avoiding missed opportunities in Russia. The diversity of participants indicates many businesses recognize the risks of being left out of this lucrative market.

What should be a wakeup call for the global West is instead falling on deaf ears. While Washington and European capitals report declining economies, Russia, in spite of severe sanctions, continues to adapt and flourish.

Policymakers are not testing their countries’ long-term economic policies against the implications of the rise of multipolarism. Let’s consider the Green/degrowth policies favored by the Biden administration and former European economic powerhouses like Germany. They are not protecting the future of their people.

SPIEF 2024 introduced concepts the Global South Century will move forward on driving the world economy while the American and European economies recede. Russia is positioning itself as a leader.

What Is the Global South?

“Take the 3.5 billion population of China, India, and the ASEAN countries, for example.

In 2000, only 150 million of these people enjoyed middle-class living standards. Today, the number has exploded to around 1.5 billion, double the total population of Western countries. And it is predicted to grow to 3 billion by 2030.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe and the Middle East, Two Scenarios of the Same War

May 14, 2024

Europe and the Middle East, Two Scenarios of the Same War

On the Red Square in Moscow, on May 9, the Parade for the 79th Anniversary of the Victory of the 1941-1945 Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany took place.

More than 9,000 military personnel with 75 weapon systems including nuclear missiles on mobile launch pads participated. The political media mainstream described the Parade as a threatening force display against Europe and the entire West, erasing its historical significance and anything leading to the current war in Europe.

In the first place, history must be remembered.

The Soviet Union was attacked and invaded in 1941 by Nazi Germany with 201 divisions, including 5.5 million soldiers equal to 75% of all German troops, 3,500 tanks, and 5,000 aircraft, plus 37 divisions from satellite countries (including Italy).

The USSR had asked its allies – Great Britain and the United States – to open a second front in Europe, but they delayed it, aiming to unload Nazi power on the USSR to weaken it and thus have a dominant position at the end of the war.

The second front was opened with the Anglo-American landing in Normandy in 1944, by that time the Red Army and the Soviet partisans had defeated the German troops, dealing the decisive blow to Nazi Germany. The price paid by the Soviet Union was very high: around 27 million deaths, over half of them civilians, corresponding to 15% of the population (compared to 0.3% in the USA throughout the Second World War); around 5 million deported to Germany; over 1,700 cities and large population centres, 70 thousand villages devastated; 30 thousand factories destroyed.

In today’s war in Europe, Russia is facing not only Kyiv’s forces, formed and commanded by a political-military group of clear Nazi brand but with NATO under US command which uses these forces by equipping them with weapons capable of striking Russia…

…click on the aboe link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?

April 25, 2024

Iran Vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?

In October of 2023 in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights “The Last War”’ I predicted that a multi-front war was about to develop between Israel and various Muslim nations including Lebanon and Iran. I noted:

“Israel is going to pound Gaza into gravel, there’s no doubt about that. A ground invasion will meet far more resistance than the Israelis seem to expect, but Israel controls the air and Gaza is a fixed target with limited territory. The problem for them is not the Palestinians, but the multiple war fronts that will open up if they do what I think they are about to do (attempted sanitization). Lebanon, Iran and Syria will immediately engage and Israel will not be able to fight them all…”

So far, both Lebanon and Iran have directly engaged Israeli military forces and civilian targets. Syrian militias are also declaring they will once again start attacking US military bases in the region. In my article ‘World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided’ published on April 5^th I noted that:

“I warned months ago…that the war in Gaza would expand into a multi-front conflict that would probably include Iran. I also warned that it would be to Israel’s benefit if Iran entered the war because this would eventually force the US to become directly involved. To be sure, Iran has already been engaging in proxy attacks on Israel through Lebanon, but Israel’s attack on the Iranian “embassy” or diplomatic station in Syria basically ensures that Iran will now directly commit to strikes on Israeli targets.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’

April 22, 2024

The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’

Frankly #61

In this week’s Frankly, I’d like to highlight the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a global supply chain choke point where nearly half of the world’s oil available for export travels through on a daily basis. In the midst of high-stakes geo-political events where threats (and misery) from warring nations dominate the discourse, we remain (mostly) energy blind to the bottlenecks that lie at the center of these conflicts, which if disrupted could send our liquid-combustible-fuel dependent economies crashing.

How could the threat of expanding regional wars – especially Iran’s potential response in the Strait of Hormuz – impact the world’s reliance on the flow of oil? Who are the people making world-altering decisions – and do they have the best interest of the future in mind? Can a heightened awareness of our global system’s dependency on fragile energy supply chains shift our focus away from escalating risks towards deconfliction and peace?

In case you missed it…

Last week, I was joined by Luther Krueger to discuss one example of a category of innovation that I’ve taken to calling ‘Goldilocks tech’ – which uses accessible and abundant materials to achieve important tasks for human societies with less or considerably less energy and material throughput. In the western world, most of us are used to indoor, gas or electric stoves, typically powered by fossil fuels, and in a third of the world, people are still using solid fuels – wood, coal, or dung – which come with many health and environmental risks. Solar ovens are an alternative which makes use of passive solar energy at a range of temperatures and can be made from basic or reused materials.

Israel’s strike on Iran: Crisis shows how badly Iran and Israel understand each other

April 21, 2024

Israel’s strike on Iran: Crisis shows how badly Iran and Israel understand each other

Reuters

Israel says it will defend itself against Iran – but its allies want to avoid a wider Middle East war

Israel’s attack on Iran was not the fierce response that US President Joe Biden and other western leaders had feared.

They have been urging Israel to draw a line under the dangerous series of events that started with Israel’s assassination of a senior Iranian general in Damascus on 1 April.

More than six months after the Hamas attacks on Israel, war continues in Gaza and has spread to the area either side of the Lebanon-Israel border and to the Gulf.

The fear is that the Middle East is on the brink of an all-out war, with global as well as regional dangers.

The Iranians are playing down the significance of what’s happened in Isfahan.

Initial reports said there had been no attack. Later, an analyst on state TV said air defences had knocked out drones that had been launched by “infiltrators”.

Official media outlets have posted jokey photos of miniature drones.

Israel was responding to the attack last Saturday from Iran. Despite years of enmity and threats it was the first time since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 that Iran had launched a direct strike from its territory onto Israel’s.

During that attack Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones. Almost all of them were destroyed by Israel’s air defences, augmented by forces from the US, UK and Jordan.

The Iranians had made their intentions clear, giving Israel and its allies time to prepare themselves, and quickly issued a statement at the UN in New York that their retaliation was over.

Mr Biden urged Israel to “take the win” but Israel insisted it would hit back.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Almost Everything is About Oil in the Middle East

April 21, 2024

Almost Everything is About Oil in the Middle East

Perhaps the most extraordinary part of Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel was that it was countered by a coalition that included Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is also noteworthy that this was the first time that the United States engaged militarily in Israel’s defense.

The events of April did not begin with the October 6, 2023 strike on Israel from Gaza but have their origins decades earlier. It is now evident, however, that the catalyst for Hamas’ attack was the impending normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

This would have had significant consequences for Israel’s oil supply, an important aspect of the present crisis that is rarely discussed by the press or politicians. Almost everything is about oil in the Middle East.

The Saudis were ready to join the Abraham Accords that in 2020 established ties between the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Israel on regional security and trade.

As a direct consequence, Israel was officially moved under the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility in early 2021, shifting from its decades-long alignment with the U.S. European Command (EUCOM).

The timing of the Gaza incursion into Israel in October was designed to prevent Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham Accords.

It is hardly a coincidence that Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea started in November. Almost 9 million barrels of oil per day (mmb/d) pass through the Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

It’s worth recalling that the Houthis have been in an armed conflict with Saudi Arabia in Yemen since 2015, and were responsible for attacking the main Saudi refinery complex in 2019. Both Hamas and the Houthis, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, are funded and largely directed by Iran.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shipping Industry Pleads With UN For “Enhanced Military Presence” As Maritime Choke-Point Chaos Spreads

April 20, 2024

Shipping Industry Pleads With UN For “Enhanced Military Presence” As Maritime Choke-Point Chaos Spreads

Exactly one week ago, Iranian commandos seized a container ship affiliated with Israel as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This action sparked new fears of another maritime chokepoint becoming disrupted as the crisis in the Middle East escalated. It also prompted a plea by the international shipping industry to the United Nations, urging an increase in military patrols along key shipping routes.

First reported by the maritime news website gGaptain, an open letter co-signed by 16 maritime industry associations and social partners, calls for urgent assistance and reminds countries about their responsibilities under international law.

“However, the incident this weekend, when the vessel MSC Aries was seized by Iranian forces at 06.37 UTC – 50 nautical miles north-east of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates on Saturday 13 April, has once again highlighted the intolerable situation where shipping has become a target. This is unacceptable,” the signatories of the letter stated.

“Given the continually evolving and severe threat profile within the area, we call on you for enhanced coordinated military presence, missions and patrols in the region, to protect our seafarers against any further possible aggression,” they said, adding, “The industry associations ask that all member states be formally reminded of their responsibilities under international law. And we ask that all efforts possible are brought to bear to release the seafarers and protect the safe transit of ships.”

After the MSC Aries seizure in the Strait of Hormuz, we published a note titled “Heading For Supply Shock? Four Maritime Chokepoints Flash Red As Escalating Conflict Looms,” outlining the maritime chokepoints, including the Suez Canal, Bab-El Mandeb Strait, and Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of all global trade flows, that are experiencing increased conflict.

In a recent note, MUFG provided a global snapshot of the world’s maritime chokepoints.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran on the Rise: Retaliation, “Important Military Targets”. Peter Koenig

April 18, 2024

Iran on the Rise: Retaliation, “Important Military Targets”. Peter Koenig

The warning was on the wall. Ever since Israel attacked “out of the blue” on 1 April 2024 the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing 7, including two generals, an Iranian retaliation was to be expected.

The New York Times (NYT) reports

“Iran mounted an immense aerial attack on Israel on Saturday night, launching more than 200 drones [other sources talk about 300 drones] and missiles in retaliation for a deadly Israeli airstrike in Syria two weeks ago, and marking a significant escalation in hostilities between the two regional foes.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say there were over 300 areal threats, including some 200 drones, 100 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles. See this.

Israel and her Western friends claim that many of the drones were intercepted by IDF and the help from allied military support. The latter apparently include the UK, France, and Jordan – and most likely also US-NATO forces that have long been stationed in the region.

Nevertheless, according to several RT reports, a large-scale missile and drone attack against Israel has been a success, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said in a statement published by IRNA news agency. The Islamic Republic’s military managed to “hit and destroy” some “important military targets,” it added, without providing any further details.

Short video clips published by Iranian media on social networks, viewing Islamic Republic’s missiles hitting their targets in Israel. Several missiles appeared to have been striking targets in a settlement, RT reports, however without being able to confirm the veracity of the clips.

The Guardian informs, that it was the Islamic Republic’s first-ever direct attack on the Jewish State, a development that brings the two countries to the brink of all-out conflict after more than a decade of shadow war and soaring stress six months into Israel’s war in Gaza, following the Hamas attack last October.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Threatens America’s Military Bases Across Middle East If US Supports Israeli Counterattack

April 14, 2024

Iran Threatens America’s Military Bases Across Middle East If US Supports Israeli Counterattack

The Saturday evening fireworks show in the Middle East marked Tehran’s first full-scale military attack on Israel. Although largely unsuccessful, concerns mount that US military bases in the region might be targeted with ballistic missiles and suicide drones if the US supports an Israeli retaliation strike.

Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari told The Washington Post that Iran launched 300 drones and missiles at Israel, adding that “more than 99 percent” had been intercepted by either Israel or the US. President Biden condemned Tehran’s “brazen attack” on Israel and told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about America’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel’s security. However, the US president warned Netanyahu that the US won’t support counterattack strikes against Iran.

Ahron Bregman, a political scientist and expert in Middle East security issues at King’s College in London, told The New York Times that Iran’s direct attack on Israel last night was the first of its kind from its own territory, calling it a “historic event.”

Over the years, Tehran has used foreign proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels to strike Israeli interests. At the moment, the Houthis are targeting US, UK, and Israeli-affiliated commercial vessels in the Southern Red Sea. And early Saturday, Iran seized an Israeli-affiliated container ship near the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran’s attack on Israel is a major escalation. There are mounting concerns that Israel could strike back. If so, Iran warned Washington that US military bases could be in the crosshairs of missiles and suicide drones.

“Our response will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran,” Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, told state media, as quoted by The Times of Israel…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Biden Tells Bibi: US Will Not Support A Counterattack Against Iran After Hundreds Of Drones, Missiles Sent

April 14, 2024

Biden Tells Bibi: US Will Not Support A Counterattack Against Iran After Hundreds Of Drones, Missiles Sent

Update(Midnight ET): It is just after 7am Israel local time and Israel’s military is reporting the Iranian attack has stopped, several hours after Iran said its ‘limited’ operation has “concluded” – which involved an unprecedented hundreds of suicide drones as as well as ballistic missiles sent against Israel in retaliation for the April 1st Israeli attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus. Below is the top story from English-language Times of Israel:

Hebrew media reports claim that not a single drone or cruise missile managed to infiltrate Israeli airspace.

According to the unsourced reports, most ballistic missiles were also knocked down outside of Israeli airspace.

A report in Ynet says some 20 cruise missiles were downed short of Israel’s borders. The US, UK and Jordan helped take down many of the drones.

Israel is reporting very little damage inside the country (though previously admitting “minor damage” against at least one key airbase in the south).

After the enormous Iranian drone and missile swarm a senior Israeli official has been quoted by Israel’s Channel 12 as saying “Iran’s attack was a strategic failure.” The official added in a threatening manner, “Now they can get ready and not sleep in peace.” Israel’s war cabinet appears to be readying a military response…

Crucially, the Biden White House appears to be strongly signaling to the Netanyahu government that the attack is ‘done’ and that the United States will not back any follow-up counterattack operations against Iran:

US President Joe Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US will not aid any Israeli counterattack on Iran, US media report, citing senior administration officials.

Axios and CNN report that message was passed during a phone call between the pair.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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