North Dakota Oil Production Declining But Slowly
Bakken crude oil production was down 7,743 bpd in March while all North Dakota production was down 9,846 barrels per day.
From the Director’s Cut:
Producing Wells
February 13,017
March 13,024 (preliminary) (all-time high was Oct 2015 13,190)
Permitting
February 70 drilling and 1 seismic
March 56 drilling and 4 seismic
April 66 drilling and 0 seismic (all time high was 370 in 10/2012)
ND Sweet Crude Price
February $18.07/barrel
March $26.62/barrel
April $26.87/barrel
Today $33.00/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
Rig Count
February 40
March 32
April 29
Today’s rig count is 27 (lowest since July 2005 when it was 27)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
Comments:
The drilling rig count fell 8 from February to March, 3 from March to April, and 2 more from April to today. Operators remain committed to running the minimum number of rigs while oil prices remain below $60/barrel WTI. The number of well completions fell from 64(final) in February to 59(preliminary) in March. Oil price weakness is the primary reason for the slow-down and is now anticipated to last into at least the third quarter of this year and perhaps into the second quarter of 2017. There were no significant precipitation events, 4 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and no days with temperatures below -10F.
Over 98% of drilling now targets the Bakken and Three Forks formations.
Estimated wells waiting on completion services is 920, up 13 from the end of February to the end of March. Estimated inactive well count is 1,523, up 84 from the end of February to the end of March.
Looking at the longer term chart we can see that the increase in production beginning in around 2011 was very steep while the decline has been less dramatic.
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