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Bakken Prices Crumble On Pipeline Woes

Bakken Prices Crumble On Pipeline Woes

Pipeline

Oil production is growing so quickly in the Bakken that the region is starting to suffer from painful pipeline constraints.

U.S. shale is not new to pipeline bottlenecks. The Permian basin has suffered from steep discounts this year, with WTI in Midland trading as much as $20 per barrel below WTI in Houston at times. Meanwhile, the midstream bottleneck is especially acute in Canada, where the inability to build a major pipeline out of Alberta has led to price discounts that have reached as high as $50 per barrel. Western Canada Select fell as low as $15 per barrel in recent daysafter a U.S. federal judge blocked construction on the Keystone XL pipeline, dealing yet another blow to Canada’s oil industry.

Now, the pipeline woes could be spreading to the Bakken. Production in the Bakken has jumped this year, rising from 1.188 million barrels per day (mb/d) in January to 1.354 mb/d in November, according to the EIA’s forecast in its Drilling Productivity Report. It is a dramatic turnaround for the Bakken after it had hit a temporary peak in late 2014 at 1.26 mb/d, before falling to 0.956 mb/d two years later. Since bottoming out at the end of 2016, however, production has slowly rebounded, with a record output level expected this month.

Rising output has been good news for Bakken shale drillers, but now they face an uncertain near-term future as pipeline capacity fills up. While the Bakken is producing over 1.3 mb/d in output, the region’s pipeline systems can only handle 1.25 mb/d, according to Reuters and Genscape. With pipelines essentially tapped out, oil producers are starting to turn to rail, just as they did years ago when the Bakken first burst onto the scene.

To make matters worse, cold weather could disrupt rail loadings, an unfortunate bit of timing as takeaway capacity dwindles.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is The Bakken Close To Breaking?

Is The Bakken Close To Breaking?

Bakken

While the Permian has experienced a drilling boom and has received tons of media attention, a lesser-known but still remarkable revival has been underway in the Bakken this year. At the same time, the increased rates of drilling in North Dakota are starting to reveal signs of strain on the basin, as drillers are increasingly forced into less desirable locations.

The Bakken was hit harder than the Permian during the oil market downturn that began in 2014, with rigs and capital diverted away from North Dakota and rerouted to West Texas. Oil production hit a temporary peak in late 2014 at 1.26 million barrels per day (mb/d), declining for much of the next two years.

However, production began to rise again in early 2017 before accelerating this year. In October, the EIA expects Bakken production to hit 1.33 mb/d, a new record high.

In some ways, the Bakken is enjoying a bit of a revival because the Permian has become overcrowded. The pipeline bottleneck, the strain on rigs and equipment, completion services, labor, water and even on road traffic has caused a lot of headaches for shale drillers in West Texas. Some shale executives have decided to shift resources elsewhere, and the Bakken has received a boost as a result.

The Bakken took over as the most profitable place for shale drillers on average this summer, at least temporarily surpassing the Permian. That may not last as the steep discounts for WTI in Midland drags down the profitability of the Permian, a situation that will resolve itself over the next few years as pipelines come online. But the improved outlook for the Bakken is notable nonetheless.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BIG TROUBLE BREWING AT THE BAKKEN: Rapid Rise In Water Production Signals Red Flag Warning

BIG TROUBLE BREWING AT THE BAKKEN: Rapid Rise In Water Production Signals Red Flag Warning

Big trouble is brewing in the mighty North Dakota Bakken Oil Field.  While oil production in the Bakken has reversed since it bottomed in 2016 and increased over the past few years, so has the amount of by-product wastewater.  Now, it’s not an issue if water production increases along with oil.  However, it’s a serious RED FLAG if by-product wastewater rises a great deal more than oil.

And… unfortunately, that is exactly what has taken place in the Bakken over the past two years.  In the oil industry, they call it, the rising “Water Cut.”  Furthermore, the rapid increase in the amount of water to oil from a well or field suggests that peak production is at hand.  So, now the shale companies will have an up-hill battle to try to increase or hold production flat as the water cut rises.

According to the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, the Bakken produced 201 million barrels of oil in the first six months of 2018.  However, it also produced a stunning 268 million barrels of wastewater:

Thus, the companies producing shale oil in the Bakken had to dispose of 268 million barrels of by-product wastewater in just the first half of the year.  I have spoken to a few people in the industry, and the estimate is that it cost approximately $4 a barrel to gather, transport and dispose of this wastewater.  Which means, the shale companies will have to pay an estimated $2.2 billion just to get rid of their wastewater this year.

Now, some companies may be recycling their wastewater, but this isn’t free.  Actually, I have seen estimates that it cost more money to recycle wastewater than it does to simply dispose of it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE U.S. SHALE OIL INDUSTRY: Swindling & Stealing Energy To Stay Alive

THE U.S. SHALE OIL INDUSTRY: Swindling & Stealing Energy To Stay Alive

While the U.S. Shale Energy Industry continues to borrow money to produce uneconomical oil and gas, there is another important phenomenon that is not understood by the analyst community.  The critical factor overlooked by the media is the fact that the U.S. shale industry is swindling and stealing energy from other areas to stay alive.  Let me explain.

First, let’s take a look at some interesting graphs done by the Bloomberg Gadfly.  The first chart below shows how the U.S. shale industry continues to burn through investor cash regardless of $100 or $50 oil prices:

The chart above shows the negative free cash flow for 33 shale-weighted E&P companies.  Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, these companies spent more money producing shale energy in the top four U.S. shale fields than they made from operations.  While costs to produce shale oil and gas came down in 2015 and 2016 (due to lower energy input prices), these companies still spent more money than they made.  As we can see, the Permian basin (in black) gets the first place award for losing the most money in the group.

Now, burning through investor money to produce low-quality, subpar oil is only part of the story.  The shale energy companies utilized another tactic to bring in additional funds from the POOR SLOBS in the retail investment community… it’s called equity issuance.  This next chart reveals the annual equity issuance by the U.S. E&P companies:

According to the information in the chart, the U.S. E&P companies will have raised over $100 billion between 2012 and 2017 by issuing new stock to investors.  If we add up the funds borrowed by the U.S. E&P companies (negative free cash flow), plus the stock issuance, we have the following chart:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”

klublu/Shutterstock

Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”

Dispelling the magical thinking behind the hype

Energy is everything. 

This is an amazingly important concept. Yet it’s almost universally overlooked.

Sometimes it’s hard to appreciate the magical role energy plays in our daily lives because most of what we experience is a derivative of it. The connection is hidden from direct view.  Because of this, most people utterly fail to detect or appreciate the priceless and irreplaceable role of high net-energy fuel sources (such as oil and gas) to our modern lifestyle.

With high net-energy, society enjoys increasing complexity and technological advances. It’s what enables us to pursue massive goals like desalinating billions of gallons of seawater, or going to Mars.  But without high net-energy fuel sources, our capabilities quickly regress to those of decades — or even centuries — past.

Which is why understanding where we truly are in the ‘net-energy story’ is so incredibly important. Is the US on the cusp of being “energy independent” from here on out? Is the “shale miracle” ushering in a glorious new ‘boom’ era that will vault America to unprecedented prosperity?

No. The central point of this report is that the US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically).

Yet that’s not what we hear from the cheerleaders in the industry or in our media. From them, we hear a silver-tongued narrative of coming riches — a narrative that contains some truth, some myth, and a lot of fantasy.

It’s those last two parts — the myths and fantasies — that are going to seriously hurt many investors, as well cause a lot of extremely poor policy and investment decisions.

The bottom line is this: The US shale industry resembles a fraudulent Ponzi scheme much more so than it does any kind of “miracle”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Production, Rig Count Surge As Exxon Bets Big On U.S. Shale

Production, Rig Count Surge As Exxon Bets Big On U.S. Shale

US oil rig counts rose for the7th straight week (up 7 to 609) to the highest level since October 2015. 

With production surging back above 9mm b/d – the highest in a year – the trend in the rig count implies considerably more production to come…

And it’s all in the Permian…

And with rig counts rising (in the Permian), production shows no signs of slowing, as OilPrice.com’s Nick Cunningham notes, ExxonMobil’s new CEO Darren Woods announced a dramatic shift towards shale drilling this week, a new strategy that will prioritize drilling thousands of smaller wells while reducing spending on the massive projects that the oil major has long been accustomed to pursuing.

Mr. Woods gave a presentation to investors on March 1, selling his vision after recently taking over from Rex Tillerson, who left to become U.S. Secretary of State. Exxon will now ramp up spending on shale drilling, after watching dozens of smaller companies profit from the surge in production in Texas, North Dakota and elsewhere over the past decade.

Exxon will dedicate a quarter of its 2017 spending budget on shale, putting $5.5 billion into the effort. “More than one quarter of the planned spending this year will be made in high-value, short-cycle opportunities, including in the Permian and Bakken basins,” Exxon wrote in a March 1 statement. The oil major says that it has 5,500 wells in its queue for drilling in the Permian and the Bakken shales, each with a return of 10 percent or more at $40 per barrel.

Exxon was able to build up this inventory of shale wells with the $6.6 billion it spent in January to double its Permian acreage.

The shift towards shale should pay off over time, with a portfolio of thousands of tiny shale wells making up a growing share of the oil major’s production portfolio.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Bakken Production Down, OPEC Production Up

Bakken Production Down, OPEC Production Up

bakken-bpd

Bakken production was down 46,433 barrels per day to 930,931 bod, All North Dakota was down 48,695 bpd to 981,039 bpd. This is first time North Dakota has been below 1 million barrels per day since March of 2014.

bakken-bpd-per-well

Bakken barrels per day per well dropped by 4 to 97 while all North Dakota bpd per well dropped by 3 to 76.

From the Director’s Cut

Oil Production

July           31,921,757 barrels = 1,029,734 barrels/day
August      30,412,200 barrels =   981,039 barrels/day (preliminary)(all-time high was Dec 2014 at 1,227,483 barrels/day)

Producing Wells

July           13,265
August      13,289 (preliminary)(all-time high)

Permitting

July           86 drilling and 0 seismic
August      99 drilling and 1 seismic September   63 drilling and 1 seismic (all time high was                    370 in 10/2012)

ND Sweet Crude Price

July               $35.57/barrel
August          $33.73/barrel
September   $32.98/barrel Today     $39.75/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

 Rig Count

July             31
August        32
September   34 Today’s rig count is 33     (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)

Comments:

The drilling rig count increased one from July to August, then increased two from August to September, and is down one more from September to today.  Operators remain committed to running the minimum number of rigs while oil prices remain below $60/barrel WTI.  The number of well completions rose from 44(final) in July to 59(preliminary) in August.  Oil price weakness is the primary reason for the slow-down and is now anticipated to last into at least the fourth quarter of this year and perhaps into the second quarter of 2017.  There were no significant precipitation events, 11 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and no days with temperatures below -10F.

The new October OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production numbers for September 2016. All charts are in thousand barrels per day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

North Dakota Oil Production Declining But Slowly

North Dakota Oil Production Declining But Slowly

North Dakota BPD

Bakken crude oil production was down 7,743 bpd in March while all North Dakota production was down 9,846 barrels per day.

From the Director’s Cut:

Producing Wells 
February    13,017 
March       13,024 (preliminary) (all-time high was Oct 2015 13,190) 
Permitting
February    70 drilling and 1 seismic 
March       56 drilling and 4 seismic
April       66 drilling and 0 seismic (all time high was 370 in 10/2012) 

ND Sweet Crude Price
February    $18.07/barrel 
March       $26.62/barrel 
April       $26.87/barrel 
Today       $33.00/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008) 

Rig Count 
February    40 
March     32
April       29 
Today’s rig count is 27 (lowest since July 2005 when it was 27)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012) 

Comments: 

The drilling rig count fell 8 from February to March, 3 from March to April, and 2 more from April to today.  Operators remain committed to running the minimum number of rigs while oil prices remain below $60/barrel WTI.  The number of well completions fell from 64(final) in February to 59(preliminary) in March.  Oil price weakness is the primary reason for the slow-down and is now anticipated to last into at least the third quarter of this year and perhaps into the second quarter of 2017.  There were no significant precipitation events, 4 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and no days with temperatures below -10F.

Over 98% of drilling now targets the Bakken and Three Forks formations.

Estimated wells waiting on completion services is 920, up 13 from the end of February to the end of March. Estimated inactive well count is 1,523, up 84 from the end of February to the end of March. 

Bakken Bpd 2

Looking at the longer term chart we can see that the increase in production beginning in around 2011 was very steep while the decline has been less dramatic.
Bakken Change

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Bakken December Data, Big Decline

Bakken December Data, Big Decline

Bakken & North Dakota

Bakken production was down 28,604 barrels per day to 1,096,044 bpd. All North Dakota was down 29,506 bpd to 1,152,280 bpd.

Bakken & ND Amplified

This is just the last two years of the chart above. It gives a slightly better look at what is happening.

Bakken BPD per Well

Barrels per day per well fell to 106 in the Bakken and to 90 in all North Dakota.

North Dakota Wells Producing

From the Director’s Cut

Producing Wells
November 13,100
December 13,119 (preliminary)(all time high was Oct 2015 13,190)
10,756 wells or 82% are now unconventional Bakken–Three forks wells
2,363 wells or 18% produce from legacy conventional pools.
 –
Permitting
November 125 drilling and 0 seismic
December 95 drilling and 0 seismic
January 78 drilling and 0 seismic (all time high was 370 in 10/2012)
 –
ND Sweet Crude Price
November $32.16/barrel
December $27.57/barrel
January $21.13/barrel
Today’s $16.50/barrel
(lowest since February 2002)(all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
 –

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Shale Drillers Running Out Of Options, Fast

U.S. Shale Drillers Running Out Of Options, Fast

Much has been made about the impressive gains in efficiency and productivity in the shale patch, as new drilling techniques squeeze ever more oil and gas out of new wells. But the limits to such an approach are becoming increasingly visible. The U.S. shale revolution is running out of steam.

The collapse of oil prices has forced drillers to become more efficient, adding more wells per well pad, drilling longer laterals, adding more sand per frac job, etc. That allowed companies to continue to post gains in output despite using fewer and fewer rigs.

However, the efficiency gains may have been illusory, or at best, incremental progress instead of revolutionary change. Rather than huge innovations in drilling performance, companies were likely just trimming down on staff, squeezing suppliers, and drilling in the best spots – perhaps all sensible stuff for companies dealing with shrinking revenues, but nothing to suggest that drilling has leaped to a new level of efficiency. Reuters outlined this phenomenon in detail in a great October 21 article.

For evidence that the productivity gains have run their course, take a look at the latest Drilling Productivity Report from the EIA. Production gains from new rigs – which have increased steadily over the past three years – have run into a wall in the major U.S. shale basins. Drillers are starting to run out of ways to squeeze more oil out of wells from their rigs. Take a look at the below charts, which show drilling productivity flat lining in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian.

Related: Geothermal Energy Could Soon Stage A Coup In Oil And Gas

For oil companies to add new production at this point it would require hiring new workers and new rigs and simply expanding the drilling footprint. That is something that few companies are doing because of low prices. In fact, most exploration companies are doing the opposite – rig counts continue to decline and the layoffs continue to mount.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bakken Production Down plus IEA Predictions

Bakken Production Down plus IEA Predictions

The Bakken and North Dakota production data is in.

ND & Bakken

Bakken production was down 19,502 bpd in August while all North Dakota was down 20,552 bpd.


ND & Bakkwn Amplified

Here is an amplified chart of Bakken and all North Dakota production.

ND & Bakken BPW

Bakken barrels per well per day is now 112 while all North Dakota gets 94 barrels per well per day.

North Dakota Change in BPD

This chart shows the monthly change in North Dakota production. It is likely that by next month the 12 month average change in production will be negative.

Bakken wells producing increased by 69 and ND wells producing increased by 65.

From the Director’s Cut

July Permitting: 233 drilling and 0 seismic
Aug Permitting: 153 drilling and 1 seismic
Sep Permitting: 154 drilling and 1 seismic

July Sweet Crude Price1 = $39.41/barrel
Aug Sweet Crude Price = $29.52/barrel
Sep Sweet Crude Price = $31.17/barrel
Today’s Sweet Crude Price = $35.00/barrel
(low-point since Bakken play began was $22.00 in Dec 2008)
(all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

July rig count 73
Aug rig count 74
Sep rig count 71
Today’s rig count is 67
(in November 2009 it was 63)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)

Comments: The drilling rig count increased 1 from July to August, decreased 3 from August to September, and dropped 4 more this month. Operators are now committed to running fewer rigs than their planned 2015 minimum as drill times and efficiencies continue to improve and oil prices continue to fall. This has resulted in a current active drilling rig count of 10 to 15 rigs below what operators indicated would be their 2015 average if oil price remained below $65/barrel. The number of well completions fell from 119(final) in July to 115(preliminary) in August. Oil price weakness now anticipated to last well into next year is the main reason for the continued slow-down. There was one significant precipitation event in the Minot area, 6 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and no days with temperatures below -10F.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. tight oil production decline

U.S. tight oil production decline

 

Oil companies have cut back spending significantly in response to the fall in the price of oil. The number of rigs that are active in the main U.S. tight oil producing regions– the Permian and Eagle Ford in Texas, Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, and Niobrara in Wyoming and Colorado– is down 58% over the last 12 months.

Number of active oil rigs in counties associated with the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Niobrara plays, monthly Jan 2007 to July 2015. Data source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report.

Nevertheless, U.S. tight oil production continued to climb through April. It has fallen since, but the EIA estimates that September production will only be down 7%, or about 360,000 barrels/day, from the peak in April.

Actual or expected average daily production (in million barrels per day) from counties associated with the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Niobrara plays, monthly Jan 2007 to September 2015. Data source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report.

This is despite the fact that typically output from an existing well falls very quickly after it begins production. The EIA estimates that tight oil production from wells that have been in operation for 3 months or more has declined by 1.6 mb/d since April, as calculated by the sum of the EIA estimated monthly declines in legacy production from May to September.

Legacy production change (month-to-month production change, in thousands of barrels per day, coming from wells in operation 3 months or more) in counties associated with the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Niobrara plays, Jan 2007 to Sept 2015. Data source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report.

One would think that these decline rates from existing wells and the drop in the number of rigs drilling new wells would mean that production would have fallen much more dramatically. Why didn’t it? The answer is that there has been a phenomenal increase in productivity per rig. For example, the EIA estimates that operating a rig for a month in the Bakken would have led to a gross production increase of 388 barrels/day two years ago but can add 692 barrels today.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

A Reality Check For U.S. Natural Gas Ambitions

A Reality Check For U.S. Natural Gas Ambitions

Something unusual happened while we were focused on the global oil-price collapse–the increase in U.S. shale gas production stalled (Figure 1).

Figure 1. U.S. shale gas production. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

(click image to enlarge)

Total shale gas production for June was basically flat compared with May–down 900 mcf/d or -0.1% (Table 1).

Table 1. Shale gas production change table. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

(click image to enlarge)

Marcellus and Utica production increased very slightly over May, 1.1 and 1.5 mmcf/d, respectively. The Woodford was up 400 mcf/d and “other” shale increased 300 mcf/d. Production in the few plays that increased totaled 3.3 mmcf/d or one fair gas well’s daily production.

Related: The Broken Payment Model That Costs The Oil Industry Millions

The rest of the shale gas plays declined. The earliest big shale gas plays–the Barnett, Fayetteville and Haynesville–were down 25%, 14% and 48% from their respective peak production levels for a total decline of -4.8 bcf/d since January 2012.

The fact that Eagle Ford and Bakken gas production declined suggests tight oil production may finally be declining as well.

To make matters worse, total U.S. dry natural gas production declined -144 mmcf/d in June compared to May, and -1.2 bcf/d compared to April (Figure 2). Marketed gas declined -117 mmcf/d compared to May and -1 bcf/d compared to April.

Figure 2. U.S. natural gas production. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

(click image to enlarge)

Although year-over-year gas production has increased, the rate of growth has decreased systematically from 13% in December 2014 to 5% in June 2015 (Figure 3).

Figure 3. U.S. dry gas year-over-year production change. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

(click image to enlarge)

This all comes at a time when the U.S. is using more natural gas for electric power generation. In April 2015, natural gas used to produce electricity (32% of total) exceeded coal (30% of total) for the first time (Figure 4).

 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Shipments by Rail Declining

Oil Shipments by Rail Declining

Weekly oil shipments by rail can be found on the web at Weekly Carload Reports. And a summation of that data with charts can be found at Association of American Railroads  Freight Rail Traffic Data.

Rail Oil Carloads 3

Crude oil by rail basically started with the shale boom. Prior to that almost all oil was shipped by pipeline. Of course a lot of oil was trucked to the pipelines. The EIA says in the first seven months of 2014 8 percent of all us crude and refined products was shipped by rail. It looks like that percentage was increased somewhat in the second half of 2014.

Rail Oil Carloads

Oil by rail, for the entire USA, peaked in August, September and October of 2014 and has declined since.

Daily Oil by Rail 2

I have converted the weekly carloads to daily then converted carloads to barrels. There are about 700 barrels per carload. That gives us the average barrels per day by rail.

Daily Oil by Rail

I have converted the weekly “daily average” to monthly “daily average” and plotted it against the North Dakota production. The EIA says: Between 60% and 70% of the more than 1 million barrels per day of oil produced in the state has been transported to refineries by rail each month in the first half of 2014, according to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

Rail Oil ND 1

As we can see from this chart the volume of oil shipped by rail changes from month to month. The chart is barrels per day per month. The peak, for North Dakota, is December 2014. Oil by rail for the USA peaked about three months earlier.

 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb)

Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb)

The views expressed are those of Dennis Coyne and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson.

blog20150706/

The post that follows relies heavily on the previous work of both Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope) and Jean Laherrere and I thank them both for sharing their knowledge, any mistakes are my responsibility.

In a previous post I presented a simplified Oil Shock model that closely followed a 2013 estimate of World C+C Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) by Jean Laherrere of 2700 Gb, where 2200 Gb was from crude plus condensate less extra heavy oil (C+C-XH) and 500 Gb was from extra heavy (XH) oil resources in the Canadian and Venezuelan oil sands.

In the analysis here I use the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method to estimate World C+C-XH URR to be about 2500 Gb. The creaming curve method preferred by Jean Laherrere suggests the lower URR of 2200 Gb, if we assume only 200 Gb of future reserve growth and oil discovery.

Previously, I have shown that US oil reserve growth (of proved plus probable reserves) was 63% from 1980 to 2005. If we assume all of the 200 Gb of reserves added to the URR=2200 Gb model are from oil discoveries and that in a URR=2500 Gb, oil discoveries are also 200 Gb, then 300 Gb of reserve growth would be needed over all future years (we will use 90 years to 2100) or about 35% reserve growth on the 850 Gb of 2P (proved plus probable) reserves in 2010. I conclude that a URR of 2500 Gb for C+C-XH is quite conservative.

A problem with the Hubbert Linearization method is that there is a tendency to underestimate URR.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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