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Has the Global Economy Finally Exhausted its Good Luck?
Has the Global Economy Finally Exhausted its Good Luck? All of these guarantees and redundancies are as illusory as the “unsinkable” technologies of the Titanic. The past three decades of global growth are rarely attributed to luck: it’s all the result of our brilliant fiscal, monetary and trade policies. Those in positions of wealth and power […]
They Don’t Ring A Bell But… Banks Begin Pitching First Managed Synthetic CDO Since Financial Crisis
They Don’t Ring A Bell But… Banks Begin Pitching First Managed Synthetic CDO Since Financial Crisis With spreads so tight – despite credit risks (leverage) at or near record highs – it would appear the bankers have returned to what they know best to be able to keep demand for new issues high and at […]
“SARS” Versus “Wuhan”: The Difference Between “Now & Then”
“SARS” Versus “Wuhan”: The Difference Between “Now & Then” A week dominated by headlines of a spreading respiratory virus has had investors recalling pandemics past, from SARS in 2003 to the Ebola scare six years ago. While the “Wuhan” virus, or known scientifically as “nCoV,” is still in its infancy, it is closely tracking both the infection and, unfortunately, […]
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus Recently, a new coronavirus has been causing many illnesses and deaths. The virus first became active in Wuhan, China, but it has already spread to the rest of China. Scattered cases have been identified around the rest of the world as well. There are two important questions […]
Silver Prices Likely To Go “Exponential” – Guggenheim Co-Founder
Silver Prices Likely To Go “Exponential” – Guggenheim Co-Founder ◆ Silver prices are likely to go “exponential again” according to Guggenheim Partners co-founder Scott Minerd, in an interview with Bloomberg at Davos (see silver chart and interview below) ◆ Silver is “the number one conviction trade in 2020” Minerd, who is also the Guggenheim Global […]
Coronavirus and the “Unsinkable” Titanic Analogy
Coronavirus and the “Unsinkable” Titanic Analogy Unthinkable doesn’t mean unsinkable. As we all know, the “unsinkable” Titanic suffered a glancing collision with an iceberg on the night of April 14, 1912. A half-hour after the iceberg had opened six of the ship’s 16 watertight compartments, it was not at all apparent that the mighty vessel had […]
Will Coronavirus Be the Black Swan that Pops the Bubble of Everything in 2020?
Will Coronavirus Be the Black Swan that Pops the Bubble of Everything in 2020? Will coronavirus be the Black Swan that brings down the global economy in 2020? In my article, “The Things We Believe That are Untrue”, I discussed how governments worldwide have been hiding recessionary numbers from global citizens since 2008. Consequently, with the world […]
Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China?
Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China? Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects. While the media naturally focuses on the immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic, the possible second-order effects receive little attention: first […]
Contagion!
Contagion! The world is confronting the effects of the “coronavirus.” It likely originated in Wuhan, China, where it jumped from animals to humans at a local food market. It has since spread to other parts of China and beyond. So far, there are 2,886 confirmed total cases of the coronavirus. All but 61 of them […]
2000 vs. 2020: The Role Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies In Stock Market Cycles
2000 vs. 2020: The Role Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies In Stock Market Cycles The equity market of 2020 has some of the lofty valuation features that showed up at the peak of 2000 cycle. Yet, a key difference is the accommodative stance of monetary and fiscal policies nowadays versus the restrictive stance of 2000. […]
Fed Trying to Stop Global Economic Contagion – Martin Armstrong
Fed Trying to Stop Global Economic Contagion – Martin Armstrong Legendary geopolitical and financial analyst Martin Armstrong says, “The Fed is trapped. If it stops (injecting money into the repo market by billions of dollars daily), interest rates will rise.” Armstrong goes on to explain, “The Bank of Japan came out and said we’re going […]
Crude Crashes As Asia Trading Opens; Stocks Slump, Gold Jumps, Yuan Dumps
Crude Crashes As Asia Trading Opens; Stocks Slump, Gold Jumps, Yuan Dumps While gold is spiking higher and stocks are getting hammered lower after a weekend of ugly headlines surrounding the lethality and spread of the novel coronovirus, the Saudis are desperately talking down the crash in crude oil prices… Brent is back below $60 and […]
The Impulses of Lunar Fed Policy Under Repo Madness
The Impulses of Lunar Fed Policy Under Repo Madness This week, while you were busy working, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, took time out from rubbing elbows with fellow movers and shakers at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to share his trepidations: “The only thing I have trepidation about is negative interest […]
Why Germany Is Going To War With Gold
Why Germany Is Going To War With Gold Owning gold is a way to get out of this “debt trap”, but governments don’t want you to own gold, especially in Germany Germans, like Indians and Chinese, love their gold – although their reasons for buying and keeping bullion are somewhat different. In China and India, […]
Will Coronavirus Crater Hopes Of A Global Recovery As World Trade Tumbles?
Will Coronavirus Crater Hopes Of A Global Recovery As World Trade Tumbles? The global economy is faced with a synchronized slowdown as central bank ammunition to fight the next global recession is limited. Monetary authorities across the world have slashed interest rates 80 times over the last 12 months and printed upwards of $1 trillion over four […]
