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Coronavirus and credit – a perfect storm
Coronavirus and credit – a perfect storm This article posits that the spread of the coronavirus coincides with the downturn in the global credit cycle, with potentially catastrophic results. At the time of writing, analysts are still trying to get to grips with the virus’s economic impact and they commonly express the hope that after […]
Poetic Justice Coming For The 1%
Poetic Justice Coming For The 1% To understand just how grim the coming decade is likely to be for the world’s super-rich, let’s start with three premises: 1) Capitalist democracy — defined as free individuals managing their own property and periodically electing new leaders — is the only system of social organization that’s consistent with […]
Median CPI Runs Hot, Fed Averts Eyes
Median CPI Runs Hot, Fed Averts Eyes Despite the Fed’s proclamations, the dollar lost purchasing power at a good clip. The inflation measure by the Cleveland Fed – the “Median CPI” – rose at 0.3% in January from December. This translates into an annualized rate of 3.7%. For the 12-month period, the Median CPI rose […]
The Four Coronavirus Scenarios: The Bad; The Worse; The Ugly; And The Unthinkable
The Four Coronavirus Scenarios: The Bad; The Worse; The Ugly; And The Unthinkable Summary The Covid-19 coronavirus could be more disruptive than markets are currently pricing in. Not in the least because the ‘true’ number of infected people remains uncertain, as the recent surge in cases exemplifies We outline four scenarios in which the virus […]
Why Covid-19 Demands Our Full Attention
Why Covid-19 Demands Our Full Attention This is an unprecedented moment for our hyper-connected planet There’s a reason we’ve re-directed so much of our attention towards reporting on and trying to understand the novel coronavirus (covid-19) that originated in Wuhan, China in December. The heart of our approach is to be “systems thinkers.” “Learn how […]
Fiat Chrysler To Shut Serbia Plant As Covid-19-Shock Paralyzes Global Supply Chains
Fiat Chrysler To Shut Serbia Plant As Covid-19-Shock Paralyzes Global Supply Chains It’s certainly plausible that the global economy is in the early stages of grinding to a halt. Already, we’ve noted that two-thirds of China’s economy is offline, with major industrial hubs idle and 400 million people quarantined. The next phase of the supply chain […]
Impure Thoughts
Impure Thoughts What if the Corona virus turns out to be a genuine pandemic with legs, not some punk-ass, flash-in-the-pan bug like SARS… and infects hundreds of millions around the world…? And what if it happens to go logarithmic in the USA, as in China now…? And what if takes a few months, or half a […]
Will The Corona Virus Trigger A Recession?
Will The Corona Virus Trigger A Recession? As if waking up to an economic nightmare, investors see headlines like these and many others flashing across their Bloomberg terminals: Facebook says Oculus headphone production will be delayed due to virus Apple extends country wide store closing for another week Foxconn delays iPhone production Qualcomm cuts production […]
China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero
China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero In our ongoing attempts to glean some objective insight into what is actually happening “on the ground” in the notoriously opaque Chinese economy which has been hammered by the Coronavirus epidemic, yesterday we showed several “alternative” economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a […]
BofA: We Are Witnessing The Biggest Asset Bubble Ever Created By A Central Bank
BofA: We Are Witnessing The Biggest Asset Bubble Ever Created By A Central Bank Back in March 2018, when commenting on what was then the 2nd longest central-bank induced bull market of all time (it is now the longest ever) Bank of America’s CIO Michael Hartnett pointed out that “bull market leadership has been in assets that […]
The Violent Collision of Market Fantasy and Viral Reality
The Violent Collision of Market Fantasy and Viral Reality When the stampede tumbles off the cliff, buyers vanish and markets go bidless. The shock wave unleashed in China on January 23 is about to hit the U.S. economy and shatter everything that is fragile and fantasy, starting with the U.S. stock market. The shock wave is […]
China Has Ground To A Halt: “On The Ground” Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
China Has Ground To A Halt: “On The Ground” Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario Back on Monday, when analysts and investors were desperately seeking clues whether China has managed to reboot its economy from the 2-week long hiatus following the Lunar New Year/Coronavirus pandemic amid the information blackout unleashed by the communist party in the already […]
1937
1937 We’ve talked about the year 2000 comparison (Party like it’s 1999). In 2020 markets went onto a similar structural tear just having rammed relentlessly higher. In 2000 markets famously topped in March following the Fed’s Y2K inspired liquidity injections in 1999 as markets had vastly disconnected from fundamental reality. Now that the truth is out we […]
OPEC Slashes Oil Demand Forecast On Coronavirus Crunch
OPEC Slashes Oil Demand Forecast On Coronavirus Crunch Perhaps buoyed by speculation that oil demand in China is set to plunge as much as 20% if not more on the coronavirus “demand shock”, on Tuesday OPEC slashed it forecast for global oil demand by almost a quarter million barrels per day as the coronavirus pandemic cripples fuel use in […]
