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A disruptive El Nino pattern might impact rice production in Thailand, the world’s second-biggest exporter of the grain that feeds half the world’s population.

Bangkok Post reported farmers are being asked by the Office of the National Water Resources “to grow only one rice crop this coming season as rainfall will be below average because of the El Nino weather pattern.”

Surasee Kittimonthon, the ONWR secretary-general, said the rainy season, which usually begins in late May, will be delayed with periods of intermittent rain in June.

Kittimonthon said ONWR had devised a plan for increased water preservation within the country’s reservoir system.

“We can provide water to farmers for the first rice crop, starting in the rainy season.

“But for the second or third crops, we would like farmers’ cooperation to grow other plants that need less water to help limit the water shortage,” he said.

Rice production requires substantial amounts of water and relies heavily on irrigation systems and sufficient rainfall. It’s an early warning sign of how El Nino is set to wreak havoc on the global food system this year.

We told readers last month the weather-altering phenomenon had a high probability of forming. We said, “If El Niño does form, it could result in heavy rainfall and heatwaves in specific regions across the globe, potentially causing disruptions in the agricultural industry.”

And days ago, we informed readers about record-breaking heatwaves in Asia and Europe in a note titled “Is El Nino Supercharging Heatwave Across Asia?”

Separately, earlier this month, Fitch Solutions published a report that forecasts this year’s global rice production will log its biggest shortfall in two decades.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

2023: Fourth Turning Meets Mass Formation Psychosis

January 24, 2023

2023: FOURTH TURNING MEETS MASS FORMATION PSYCHOSIS

“Four things need to exist or need to be in place if you want a large-scale mass phenomenon to emerge. The first thing is that there needs to be a lot of socially isolated people, people who experience a lack of social bonds. The second one is that there needs to be a lot of people who experience a lack of sense-making in life. And the third and the fourth conditions are that there needs to be a lot of free-floating anxiety and a lot of free-floating psychological discontent. So: meaning, anxiety, and discontent that is not connected to a specific representation.

So, it needs to be in the mind without the people being able to connect it to something. If you have these four things—lack of social bonds, lack of sense-making, free-floating anxiety, and free-floating psychological discontent—then society is highly at risk for the emergence of mass phenomenon.” – Mattias Desmet – The Psychology of Totalitarianism

“Try to unlearn the obsessive fear of death (and the anxious quest for death avoidance) that pervades linear thinking in nearly every modern society. The ancients knew that, without periodic decay and death, nature cannot complete its full round of biological and social change. Without plant death, weeds would strangle the forest. Without human death, memories would never die, and unbroken habits and customs would strangle civilization. Social institutions require no less. Just as floods replenish soil and fires rejuvenate forests, a Fourth Turning clears out society’s exhausted elements and creates an opportunity.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

I recently finished reading Mattias Desmet’s fascinating and illuminating book The Psychology of Totalitarianism, where he examines the mass formation psychosis which swept over the world during the time frame of early 2020 until present day…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The US Empire Is Accelerating Toward Global Conflict On Two Fronts

September 24, 2022

The US Empire Is Accelerating Toward Global Conflict On Two Fronts

Vladimir Putin has announced that referenda will be held in four regions of the eastern part of Ukraine whose populations will now vote on whether to join the Russian Federation, much like the Crimea referendum of 2014 which resulted in Russia’s annexation of that territory. Putin announced that 300,000 additional troops will be mobilized for the war to help facilitate this action, which is a major escalation in the conflict by any measure.

Putin also issued a stern nuclear warning that’s being hysterically spun by empire managers as a shocking and unprecedentedly bellicose threat, but if you read what he actually said it’s clear that he’s really reminding the west of the same principles of Mutually Assured Destruction that have been in place for generations, and isn’t expressing any position that western nuclear powers don’t also hold:

Nuclear blackmail was also launched. We are talking not only about the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which is encouraged by the West, which threatens a nuclear catastrophe, but also about the statements of some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO states about the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia — nuclear weapons.

To those who allow themselves to make such statements about Russia, I would like to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for some components more modern than those of the NATO countries. And if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It’s not a bluff.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A tale of two civilisations

October 24, 2021

A tale of two civilisations

In recent years, America’s unsuccessful attempts at containing China as a rival hegemon has only served to promote Chinese antipathy against American capitalism. China is now retreating into the comfort of her long-established moral values, best described as a mixture of Confucianism and Marxism, while despising American individualism, its careless regard for family values, and encouragement of get-rich-quick financial speculation.

After America’s defeat in Afghanistan, the geopolitical issue is now Taiwan, where things are hotting up in the wake of the AUKUS agreement. Taiwan is important because it produces two-thirds of the world’s computer chips. Meanwhile, the large US banks are complacent concerning Taiwan, preferring to salivate at the money-making prospects of China’s $45 trillion financial services market.

The outcome of the Taiwan issue is likely to be decided by the evolution of economic factors. China is protecting herself against a global credit crisis by restraining its creation, while America is going full MMT. The outcome is likely to be a combined financial market and dollar crisis for America, taking down its Western epigones as well. China has protected herself by cornering the market for physical gold and secretly accumulating as much as 20,000-30,000 tonnes in national reserves.

If the dollar fails, which without a radical change in monetary policy it is set to do, with its gold-backing China expects to not only survive but be able to consolidate Taiwan into its territory with little or no opposition.

Introduction

On the one hand we have America and on the other we have China. As civilisations, America is discarding its moral values and social structures while China is determined to stick with its Confucian and Marxist roots. America is inclined to recognise no other civilisations as being civilised, while China’s leadership has seen America’s version and is rejecting it…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?

October 14, 2020

Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?

Tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, as the list of ideological, political and economic clashes continues to lengthen. And there is a transparent new reality: China seems in no mood to back down.

“The Indians are seeing 60,000 Chinese soldiers on their northern border,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo ominously warned on Friday.

He spelled out what he meant to commentator Larry O’Connor:

“The Chinese have now begun to amass huge forces against India in the north. … They absolutely need the United States to be their ally and partner in this fight.”

Pompeo had just returned from a Tokyo gathering of foreign ministers from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad,” the group of four democracies — U.S., Japan, Australia, India — whose purpose is to discuss major Indo-Pacific geostrategic issues.

Exactly what kind of “ally and partner” the U.S. is to be “in the fight” between India and China over disputed terrain in the Himalayan Mountains was left unexplained. We have no vital interest in where the Line of Control between the most populous nations on earth should lie that would justify U.S. military involvement with a world power like China.

And the idea that Japan, whose territorial quarrel with China is over the tiny Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, thousands of miles away, would take sides in a Himalayan India-China conflict also seems ludicrous.

Yet, tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, as the list of ideological, political and economic clashes continues to lengthen.

And there is a transparent new reality: China seems in no mood to back down.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Blasts Latest US Navy Deployment Near Paracel Islands: “Halt Provocations!”

October 11, 2020

China Blasts Latest US Navy Deployment Near Paracel Islands: “Halt Provocations!”

This after the latest incident involving the US destroyer John McCain sailing near the disputed Paracel Islands administered and militarized by China.

*Illustrative image: Guided missile destroyer USS Forest Sherman, Wiki Commons.*

A PLA military spokesperson denounced the sail-by, saying Washington must seek permission to navigate the area. “We demand the US immediately stop such provocative actions, (and) strictly control and restrict military operations in the sea and air,” the spokesperson said.

This constitutes the latest notable incident after last summer there was a major uptick in US military flights over the region, however, during the past month there seems to have been fewer of these provocative sail-throughs.

Prior angry denunciations from Beijing related to American spy aircraft observed in the region, sometimes even shielding any identifying characteristics to appear like civilian aviation, which the PLA has said is dangerous given the possibility of ‘mistaken’ incidents.

The Chinese military has repeatedly charged that the US Navy has ‘frequently’ deployed warships in the South China Sea to “show off its force and severely infringe upon China’s sovereignty and security interests,” according to a quote in The Daily Mail.

The Pentagon response has typically been that it’s conducting peaceful ‘freedom of navigation’ operations to ensure adversaries adhere to international law for open waters.

China has over the past years used both artificial islands as well as expanding military bases on the tiny land masses to extend its maritime claims, butting up against that of American allies in the region like the Philippines or unrecognized Taiwan.

Kissinger Warns: China-US Must Agree To “Limits” On Making Threats Or Risk War

October 8, 2020

Kissinger Warns: China-US Must Agree To “Limits” On Making Threats Or Risk War

Two major and relatable statements have been issued Wednesday on the question of US ties with Taiwan and China’s growing anger and increasingly bellicose rhetoric in response.

First, the notoriously hawkish editor-in-chief of China’s state-owned news tabloid the Global Times issued a threat, saying China should “fully prepare itself for war” with Taiwan in the event it restores diplomatic relations with the United States.

Hu Xijin wrote in his latest opinion piece that “We must no longer hold any more illusions. The only way forward is for the mainland to fully prepare itself for war and to give Taiwan secessionist forces a decisive punishment at any time.”

*AFP/Getty Images: China’s President Xi Jinping & former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the Nov.2019 New Economy Forum at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.*

The GT editor added that “As the secessionist forces’ arrogance continues to swell, the historical turning point is getting closer.” The secessionist forces he was specifically denouncing is the Taiwanese Kuomintang Party, or KMT, who he described as having “woken up on the wrong side of the bed. They have gone downhill and become vulgar.”

And the latest actions of its legislators is what he finds most alarming, according to his description:

The Kuomintang (KMT) group in Taiwan’s “Legislative Yuan” proposed two bills, asking the island’s authorities to request US assistance in resisting the Communist Party of China and to resume diplomatic ties with the US. The move is widely believed to checkmate the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and put the DPP in a difficult position.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bill Gates Warns “10 Million Lives” At Risk As Virus Spreads To Africa And Taiwan Reports First Death

February 16, 2020

Bill Gates Warns “10 Million Lives” At Risk As Virus Spreads To Africa And Taiwan Reports First Death

Summary:

Taiwan reports 1st coronavirus death
Taiwan taxi driver who died from virus carried passengers from mainland, Hong Kong, Macau
Singapore reports 3 more cases
Indonesia says 6 passengers from Westerdam cruise ship tested negative
There are now at least 68,500 cases worldwide, and at least 1,665 deaths from the Covid-19 virus
Japan found 70 more cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship
Second African confirms suspected coronavirus case
Hubei province, the outbreak’s epicenter, reported fewer new infections for the second day
Bill Gates warns “10 million deaths” possible in Africa
China’s facemask shortage likely won’t be over anytime soon
WHO says Beijing’s actions bought the world time, but “we don’t know how much time”

* * *

Update (1140ET): It’s almost Monday in China. Here’s a smattering of updates from the region as the number of confirmed cases ex-China is starting to go exponential. If these cases continue accelerating, it will soon become impossible for the Chinese government to continue rigging their data.

First, Malaysia reports that six passengers who have been quarantined since arriving in the country from Cambodia after disembarking from the Westerdam cruise ship have tested negative for the virus. Yesterday, we reported that an 83-year-old American woman tested positive for the virus after flying to Kuala Lumpur.

As we noted earlier, the Taiwanese man who succumbed to the virus was a taxi driver who apparently carried three fares all returning from China, Hong Kong and Macau. The three fares are being tracked very closely by the government in Taiwan.

Singapore’s ministry of health reported three new cases, two of which appear to be linked to a cluster of cases at the Grace Assembly of God church, Bloomberg reports.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Demands US Stop “Flexing Muscles” After Its New Carrier Sails Across Taiwan Strait

November 18, 2019

China Demands US Stop “Flexing Muscles” After Its New Carrier Sails Across Taiwan Strait

China has gone on the diplomatic and military offensive Monday as China’s Defense Minister told his US counterpart that Washington must stop “flexing its muscles” in the South China Sea. At the same time Beijing has deployed its new domestically produced aircraft carrier to the South China Sea for “training and research purposes,” CNN reports. Before that it passed through the Taiwan Strait, reportedly followed closely by US and Japanese ships.

China said it would not tolerate “any Taiwan independence incidents” and urged the United States not to provoke any further problems or interference in the region.

*China’s first domestically developed aircraft carrier, via Reuters.*

This latest incident reported by Reuters involved the “Chinese carrier ship passed through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, tailed by U.S. and Japanese ships.”

US Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe met in Bangkok where they are attending a summit with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other countries.

Wei is reported to have told Esper that China is determined to maintain “peace and stability in the South China Sea and demands the US stop flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and do not provoke and escalate tension in the South China Sea.” They also discussed the unrest in Hong Kong and a host of other security-related issues.

Chinese Defense Minister Wie Fenghe greets US Defense Secretary Mark Esper in Bangkok, Thailand on Monday, via the AP.

The day before, Esper had publicly accused Beijing of “increasingly resorting to coercion and intimidation to advance its strategic objectives” in the region.

Esper acknowledged in a Tweet that the two discussed “how our two nations can continue a relationship focused on maintaining the international rules based system.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Beijing Enraged After US Navy Ship Sails Through Taiwan Strait

August 24, 2019

Beijing Enraged After US Navy Ship Sails Through Taiwan Strait

With the 70th anniversary of the founding of the CPC looming, and Beijing staking out a more aggressive trade stance Friday morning by threatening retaliatory tariffs, the US picked the best – or worst – time to provoke Beijing, when a Navy ship sailed through the Taiwan Strait in the Navy’s latest “freedom of navigation” operation, or ‘freeop’ on Friday.

As CNA points out, Washington has actually increased its antagonistic operations in the Taiwan Strait as tensions with Beijing have soared this year, and Friday’s mission risks stoking tensions even further, as Beijing has warned international powers not to interfere in its relationship with Taiwan, or risk provoking Beijing’s wrath.

Yet interfering is precisely what the US has done, and earlier this month, Beijing denounced the sale of $2.2 billion in weapons to Taiwan by the US. Beijing has been ramping up pressure to assert its sovereignty over the island, which it considers a wayward province.

Commander Reann Mommsen, a spokeswoman for the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet, said the operation in the 111-mile wide waterway separating Taiwan from China “demonstrates the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Mommsen identified the ship as the Green Bay, an amphibious transport dock ship, hinting at a possible marine transport to the controversial island. Typically, these missions are carried out using destroyer-class ships.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the island’s military had a full grasp of the situation in the Strait and closely monitored it.Washington has no formal ties with Taiwan, but the US is bound by law to help defend the island nation should it be attacked. The US is also its primary source of arms.

Beijing Accuses Washington Of “Undermining Global Stability” In New Defense Report

July 24, 2019

Beijing Accuses Washington Of “Undermining Global Stability” In New Defense Report

For the first time since President Xi began his second term in 2017, China has released a defense white paper that doesn’t elaborate on the country’s military priorities so much as it criticizes Beijing’s chief political adversary – the US – while defending the Communist Party’s right to impose its rule over China’s wayward provinces, including Hong Kong, which is still being rattled by protests, and Taiwan.

It’s the latest sign that tensions between Beijing and Washington over the latter’s support for Taiwan – Washington recently approved the sale of $2 billion in tanks and anti-aircraft missiles – might not only scupper trade talks, they could be the spark that ignites World War III. And what’s more, it comes hours after the White House confirmed that the next round of in-person trade talks had been set for next week. Remember, Beijing has repeatedly threatened to use military force against any foreign power who interferes in its relationship with Taiwan, while Taiwan’s leaders have insisted that they would never submit to Communist Party rule, Bloomberg reports.

The paper, titled “China’s National Defense in the New Era” – in a reference to a popular Xi slogan – accused the US of provoking competition among major countries, and noted that the “international security system and order are undermined by growing hegemonism, power politics, unilateralism and constant regional conflicts and wars.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…“(The US) has provoked and intensified competition among major countries, significantly increased its defense expenditure, pushed for additional capacity in nuclear, outer space, cyber and missile defense,” the paper said.

The white paper noted recent patrols by Chinese warships and warplanes around Taiwan, insisting that the operation was intended to send a “stern warning” to Taipei.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Sends A Message: Holds Military Drills Off Taiwan, Will Sanction US Defense Firms

July 15, 2019

China Sends A Message: Holds Military Drills Off Taiwan, Will Sanction US Defense Firms

Following last week’s State Department approval of the sale of $2.2 billion in arms to Taiwan, China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Monday that it will follow through on threats first made days ago to impose sanctions on American companies selling arms to Taiwan.

Crucially this confirmation came simultaneous to provocative new military exercises off China’s southeast coast, near Taiwan, which involved the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) navy and air force. Downplaying the maneuvers, the PLA described the drills as “a routine arrangement according to (our) annual plans.”

*The PLA conducted a new round of provocative military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Image source: Chinamil.com.cn via SCMP*

“China’s government and Chinese companies will not cooperate or have commercial contacts with these U.S. companies,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a daily news briefing. He was responding to potential US sales to Taiwan of M1A2T Abrams tanks, Stinger missiles and related equipment at an estimated value of $US2.2 billion, despite longtime vocal Chinese criticism and threats.

“I can’t reveal the details at the moment. But believe this – Chinese people always stress standing by their word,” the foreign minister added. Though few details have been revealed, a handful of American defense companies have been named among the first targets of Beijing’s promised impending sanctions, including General Dynamics, Raytheon co., Honeywell, Oshkosh Corp., and the Pensylvania operations of BAE Systems.

As Reuters reports:

On Sunday, the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily posted an article on its WeChat account identifying U.S. companies that could be vulnerable to sanctions.
They included Honeywell International Inc (HON.N), which makes the engines for the Abrams tanks, and private jets maker Gulfstream Aerospace, which is owned by General Dynamics. China is an important market for both Honeywell and Gulfstream.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Demands US “Sever Military Ties” With Taiwan After $2.2bn Arms Proposal

July 9, 2019

China Demands US “Sever Military Ties” With Taiwan After $2.2bn Arms Proposal

As expected on Tuesday China slammed the US State Department’s newly approved potential sale to Taiwan of M1A2T Abrams tanks, Stinger missiles and related equipment at an estimated value of $US2.2 billion. Beijing has long vehemently criticized US-Taiwan defense relations, which it sees as encroaching on its sovereignty and specifically its “one-China” principle regarding Taiwan.

China’s Foreign Ministry said the planned weapons transfer “grossly interferes” with Chinese internal affairs and “undermines” its security interests, and further called on the US to “sever military ties with Taiwan”.

“The U.S. arms sales to Taiwan severely violate international law, the basic norms governing international relations, the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiques,” foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said. “It grossly interferes in China’s internal affairs and undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests.”

The statement underscored that China will take every action to safeguard its national sovereignty while “opposing foreign interference” as Taiwan is “an inalienable part of China’s territory,” according to official state run Xinhua News Agency.

“China urges the United States to honor its commitment to the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiques, immediately withdraw the aforementioned planned arms sales to and sever military ties with Taiwan to avoid further damage to bilateral relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” said the spokesperson.

The possible deal is said to include 108 General Dynamics M1A2T Abrams tanks and 250 Stinger missiles, as well as mounted machine guns and ammunition.

As a reminder, one month ago China’s Foreign Ministry last month said it was seriously concerned about US arms sales to self-ruled Taiwan, and urged the United States to halt the sales to avoid harming bilateral ties.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Taiwan Holds Live-Fire Military Exercise Amid Fears Of China Invasion

January 19, 2019

Taiwan Holds Live-Fire Military Exercise Amid Fears Of China Invasion

Taiwan on Thursday conducted live-fire war drills along its west coast amid mounting fears that Chinese President Xi Jinping could use military force to annex the democratic island.

Artillery batteries, self-propelled artillery weapons, attack helicopters, and main battle tanks fired at targets off the west coast city of Taichung, while the island’s air force operated French-made Dassault Mirage 2000 fighter jets.

The war exercise followed a new report from the Pentagon outlining concerns about Beijing’s expanding military might, including a possible invasion of Taiwan.

“China … believes that U.S. military presence … in Asia seeks to constrain China’s rise and interfere with China’s sovereignty, particularly in a Taiwan conflict scenario,” the Pentagon report said.

In a meeting with US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson in Beijing on Tuesday, China’s chief of staff Li Zuocheng warned about foreign forces coming to Taiwan’s help.

The US is Taiwan’s primary source of heavy military hardware and legally bound to respond if China invades the island.

China’s armed forces will “pay any price” to ensure China’s sovereignty, Zuocheng told Richardson at their meeting. China considers Taiwan, which split from the mainland amid civil war in 1949, as part of Chinese territory.

The trigger for the military drills could have been due to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, recently rejected requests from President Xi for the island to move towards “unification” with China.

Major General Chen Chung-chi, the spokesman for Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said the military is updating its exercises to reflect the possibility of an amphibious invasion by China.

“We exercise the way wars are fought … so that we will be capable and confident in the defense of our country,” Chen told journalists in Taipei on Wednesday. “We are ready to face an enemy threat at any time.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China To US Navy Chief: Army Will Defend Taiwan Claims “At Any Cost”

January 16, 2019

China To US Navy Chief: Army Will Defend Taiwan Claims “At Any Cost”

A rare and under-reported tense exchange occurred between US and Chinese military commanders in Beijing on Tuesday. A high level Chinese military official, General Li Zuocheng, told the head of the United States Navy, Admiral John Richardson, in a face to face meeting that Beijing would defend its claim to Taiwan “at any cost”. “The Taiwan issue is an internal matter of China, concerns China’s fundamental interests and the national feelings of the Chinese people, and no outside interference will be tolerated,” Li Zuocheng said in a statement released by the Ministry of Defense, cited by the AFP.

Admiral John Richardson traveled to China for talks aimed at reducing “risk and miscalculation”.

After a series of recent instances involving US Navy warships making provocative passages through the Taiwan Strait — which the US says is its right according to freedom to navigate international waters, it appears China is going “gloves off” in direct statements challenging US military commanders.

Gen. Zuocheng, who is a powerful member of the Central Military Commission further told the US Navy chief:

If anyone wants to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will defend the unity of the motherland at any cost.

Alarmingly this comes after President Xi Jinping provoked an angry rebuke from Taiwan’s pro-independence president when he demanded during a landmark speech on Jan. 2 that Taiwan submit to “reunification” with Beijing.

And in a follow-up speech days after this before military officials, Xi took his belligerent rhetoric one step further by issuing his first military command of 2019: that “all military units must correctly understand major national security and development trends, and strengthen their sense of unexpected hardship, crisis and battle.” Xi had essentially ordered the Chinese military to prepare for war as his first act of 2019.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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