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IEA’s 2030 Outlook – I Don’t Even Know Where To Start

Summary

  • IEA predicts global oil demand will peak by 2030, leading to an 8 million b/d surplus due to Electric Vehicle and energy transition movement.
  • IEA’s outlook shows a disconnect between GDP growth and oil demand growth, with unrealistic assumptions about EV penetration and gasoline demand drop.
  • Despite IEA’s flawed projections, there are insights in the report suggesting peak oil supplies this decade, particularly in US shale production.
  • We see an oil market that’s going to be in a sustainable deficit by 2030.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of HFI Research get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »
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Roman Mykhalchuk

IEA published its latest 2030 outlook yesterday, and I don’t even know where to start. The big headline from the IEA medium-term outlook is that global oil demand will peak by 2030, and oil producers are going to face a

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