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This “Unprecedented” Fiscal Doom Loop Is Getting Worse

October 25, 2023

This “Unprecedented” Fiscal Doom Loop Is Getting Worse

Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week.

I believe Larry to truly be one of the muted voices that the investing community would be better off considering. He gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.

Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q4 2023. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.

OVERVIEW

It was an interesting quarter. There was a whiff of deflation as the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all declined in value. But this was not matched by the prices of crude oil and commodities, both of which were strong, and the bond market had a bad quarter as rates continued to rise across the curve. A slowing economy, falling stocks and bonds, and rising commodity inflation spell one thing very clearly to us: STAGFLATION.

In the third quarter of 2023, the Fund increased in value slightly by 0.5% and picked up considerable ground (over 10% outperformance) on our benchmark index the Gold Stock Juniors ETF (GDXJ). A big piece of this outperformance occurred due to our large position in Lavras Gold which we profile on page 21. As we have said before, we manage the Fund aggressively, and in bear markets for gold stocks, we expect that we will do worse than GDXJ. However, we also want to point out that the converse is true in bull markets; in 2019 EMA was up 98% vs. the GDXJ which was up 40%, and in 2020 EMA was up 122% vs. the GDXJ which was up 33%. We believe that when this market turns, the results will be similar.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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