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Midweek Sector Update: Oil Prices Crash Again – Another Downturn Ahead?

July 8, 2015

Midweek Sector Update: Oil Prices Crash Again – Another Downturn Ahead?

We had warned over the past few weeks that there was an outside chance that the Greek crisis would infect oil markets, and over the weekend Greek voters ensured that it did. With an overwhelming “no” vote, just about every corner of Greece voted against Europe’s debt package. Exactly what Greeks were voting for was rather confusing, but the vote was taken as a robust vote of confidence in Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ hardline approach against Greece’s creditors.

While that handed Tsipras a strong victory, it also led to a plunge in oil prices. WTI fell by 8 percent on July 6, falling to around $53 per barrel. Brent lost nearly 5 percent, dropping to under $58 per barrel. Oil is now trading at its lowest level in months, erasing several weeks of stability as well as optimism that the market had begun the arduous process of adjustment.

The Greek crisis has entered a new and much more dangerous phase, raising the possibility that the country could get booted from the currency union. JP Morgan Chase stated that it thinks odds are more likely than not that Greece leaves the euro. With Europe in turmoil, oil prices may not recover in the short-term.

Related: Don’t Panic, Nothing Has Really Changed In The Oil Markets

But it isn’t just Greece. In another (much more positive) geopolitical development, the Iranian negotiations are at the finish line. The outcome is still in doubt, as the deadline has once again been pushed back, this time until July 10, but all sides are extremely close to a deal. After weeks and months of uncertainty, the progress over the past week seems to have finally convinced the oil markets that a return of Iranian oil is close to becoming a reality.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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