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Update on the WTF Collapse of Demand for Gasoline, Jet Fuel, and Diesel

June 21, 2020

Update on the WTF Collapse of Demand for Gasoline, Jet Fuel, and Diesel

No “V-shaped recovery back to normal.”

Demand for gasoline collapsed in a stunning and historic manner, starting in mid-March when the measures to slow down the spread of the pandemic took effect, when working from home became the new thing, and when millions of people lost their jobs on a weekly basis and stopped driving to work. Gasoline consumption, after bottoming out in the week ended April 3 with a year-over-year plunge of -48%, to 6.7 million barrels per day, the lowest in the EIA’s data going back to 1991, the great recovery began – and fizzled.

Gasoline consumption in the week ended June 12, at 7.87 million barrels per day, was still down 20.7% year-over-year, according to data reported by the EIA today. It has been about the same 20% year-over-year decline four weeks in a row:

The EIA measures weekly consumption in terms of product supplied, such as by refineries and blenders, and not by retail sales at gas stations.

The level of gasoline consumption of 7.87 million barrels per day is still below any pre-pandemic consumption levels since the week in September 2001 after the 9/11 attacks. The WTF moment came in late March and April, when gasoline consumption collapsed. Even now, gasoline consumption remains below the low points during the Great Recession. And this is the beginning of driving season!

Gasoline hasn’t been exactly a booming business since around 2005. The decline in consumption during the Great Recession was followed by a recovery and finally new records starting in 2016. In other words, no growth for a decade.

Jet fuel.

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Some Toronto area gas stations run out of fuel

March 5, 2015

Some Toronto area gas stations run out of fuel

Extreme weather blamed, but some analysts say Canada lacks refinery capacity

Motorists are pulling up at some Toronto-area gas stations to find that the pumps are dry.

The oil companies that supply fuel in the area have said it’s a temporary situation, caused by extreme winter weather and a power outage.

But Natural Resources Canada says southern Ontario and other parts of Canada may face frequent gasoline shortages in the future, as nearby refineries are already operating at capacity.

Without new refining capacity “supply interruptions could become more frequent and increasingly difficult to manage,” the government agency says in an online report.

Canadians increased their consumption of gasoline by two per cent or 800 million litres in the first nine months of 2014, to 38 billion litres.

“Petroleum companies are suggesting this is logistics. I sense there’s product issue somewhere as the weather is not likely to have contributed to this shortfall, which covers the entire Golden Horseshoe,” said Dan McTeague, with GasBuddy.ca, which tracks the price of gasoline.

 

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