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Rabobank: Inflation Is Being “Hidden” Because Belief In Our Whole Fantasy System Is Collapsing

March 11, 2021

Rabobank: Inflation Is Being “Hidden” Because Belief In Our Whole Fantasy System Is Collapsing

Because Orcs

“And as if in answer there came from far away another note. Horns, horns, horns, in dark Mindolluin’s sides they dimly echoed. Great horns of the north wildly blowing. Rohan had come at last.”

Today is going to be dominated by the market pricing in US fiscal stimulus for the nth time, unless we buy the rumor and sell the fact: and it’s rumors and facts I want to address. US CPI yesterday saw headline inflation in line with consensus at 0.4% m/m and rising from 1.3% to 1.7% y/y, but core inflation a tick lower at 0.1% m/m and so dipping to 1.3% y/y. On the back of that, and a moderate US 10-year auction, US equities rose (the S&P up 0.6%); US bond yields dipped, (10s down 6bp from their intraday peak to close at 1.52%); and USD wobbled.

The CPI release included a footnote stating:

“…data collection in February was affected by the temporary closing or limited operations of certain types of establishments. These factors resulted in an increase in the number of prices considered temporarily unavailable and imputed. While the CPI program attempted to collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on smaller amounts of collected prices than usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally published were not published this month.”

Or, to put it differently, ‘We did our best, but made some of it up’.

This rightly worried some people: is inflation being ‘hidden’?…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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