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What Do The Banks Know? 

August 22, 2018

What Do The Banks Know? 

What Do The Banks Know? - Craig Hemke (21/08/2018)

Much is being made of the current makeup of the Commitment of Traders report for Comex gold. However, similar historical irregularities are appearing in other assets, too. Thus the question, are The Banks setting the stage for a wildly volatile second half of 2018?

First, an update on the Commitment of Traders report for Comex gold. For the survey week ended Tuesday, August 14, more astonishing changes appeared within the general CoT structure:

  • The Large Speculator (hedge funds, managed money, trading funds) NET position is now SHORT 3,688 contracts. This is the first reported NET short position for this group since December of 2001.
  • The Large Speculator GROSS short position is 215,467 contracts. This is a new ALLTIME high.
  • The Commercial (Big Bank) NET short position is just 7,350 contracts. This is the smallest Commercial NET position since the CoT report surveyed on December 1, 2015.
  • The Commercial GROSS short position of 171,545 contracts is the smallest since the survey of January 5, 2016.
  • The Large Speculators are now GROSS short 43,922 contracts more than The Commercials. This is a new ALLTIME record.

And consider this, too. That 215,467 contract GROSS short position for the Large Speculators is truly an unbacked position. This group has no metal to deliver, nor do they contract with miners for future delivery. Instead, they are simply speculating on the future direction of the Comex derivative price. As a reminder, each Comex contract was originally designed to represent the potential obligation to take or make delivery of 100 ounces of gold. Thus, with a GROSS position of 215,467 contracts, the Large Speculator category is short 21,546,700 ounces or about 670 metric tonnes.

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