A general view of a coal mine during a Huawei-organised media tour, in Yulin city, Shaanxi province, China April 24, 2023. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
BEIJING, April 23 (Reuters) – China’s coal consumption will fall by just one-third by 2040, according to a report by a European consultancy published on Tuesday, threatening climate targets that call for phasing out much of global coal use by 2040.
The International Energy Agency has said that global coal power capacity has to be eliminated by 2040 to keep average global temperature rises within the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
However, Norwegian risk assessment firm DNV said in its report that its findings indicate China’s coal consumption – the world’s biggest – will see a “minor uptick” in the next two years and then fall by one-third by 2040, ending up at around 25% of its peak in 2050.
The findings underscore China’s outlook on fossil fuels. In September, former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua told the COP28 climate talks that it would be “unrealistic to completely phase out fossil fuel energy”.
China will continue using coal despite a massive ramp-up in renewable generation, which will make up 88% of China’s power generation mix in 2050, the report predicts.
China approved another 114GW of coal power plants last year, up 10% from 2022, and the iron and steel sectors are on track to overtake power as the biggest consumers of coal by mid-century. Coal-to-chemicals will also make up a significant share of the remaining demand, according to the report.
Decarbonisation of the steel sector through new methods such as cleaner electric arc furnace technology is lagging in China, research has shown.
Natural gas consumption will stay part of the energy mix with consumption falling only 2% from 2022 levels by 2050, the report said.
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