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The limits of renewable energy and the case for degrowth

November 21, 2018

The limits of renewable energy and the case for degrowth

Photo from Pixabay

The energy transition is the focus of much discussion. To read the accounts in the mainstream media, one gets the impression that renewable energy is being rolled out quickly and is on its way to replacing fossil fuels without much ado, while generating new green jobs. If the claims of Jeremy Rifkin are to be believed, renewable energy will become cheaper and cheaper, on the model of computers and telecommunications.

But what is the current combined share of solar photovoltaic energy and solar thermal energy, wind and tidal energy, and geothermal energy? (I am not including hydroelectric power and biomass here. While they are arguably forms of renewable energy, they are typically looked at separately because, having reached maturity, they have limited potential for expansion, unlike solar and wind power which remain underexploited.) People tend to think it constitutes 5, 10 or even 20 per cent of total energy production. The figure is actually much smaller: a mere 1.5 per cent. That’s the net result of the last 45 years of progress on the energy transition, according to the official figures of the International Energy Agency.

To break it down, from 1973 to 2015:

  • The share of petroleum in the global energy mix decreased from 46 per cent to 32 per cent
  • Coal’s share grew from 25 per cent to 28 per cent
  • Natural gas’s share grew from 16 per cent to 22 per cent
  • Nuclear’s share grew from 1 to 5 per cent
  • Hydroelectricity’s share grew from 2 to 3 per cent
  • The combined share of biofuels, wood and waste decreased from 11 per cent to 10 per cent
  • And renewable energy’s share grew by a factor of 15, from 0.1 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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