On hot days the truth comes out. Critical power plants for peak demand run on gas and that was short in supply, not only in South Australia, but also in NSW, as was shown in this previous post.
Fig 1: Gas shortage contributed to multiple systems failure
The above information is taken from AEMO’s website POWER SYSTEM OPERATING INCIDENT REPORTS
with this incident report for the 10th of February.
Fig 2: Electricity generation by fuel in a heat wave
In Fig 2 we can see the dependency of the power supply on gas.
In AEMO’s Gas Statement of Opportunities March 2017 we find a graph with declining gas production from proved and probable reserves, together with this statement:
“AEMO’s analysis highlights that these domestic gas markets will rely on production from currently uneconomic and undeveloped gas resources (contingent resources) from 2021, and even more uncertain resources (prospective resources) from 2025, to meet forecast demand over the 20-year outlook period.”
Fig 3: Domestic gas production profile from conventional sources,
compiled i.a. on the basis of advice from producers
“For the purposes of GSOO modelling, AEMO has assumed that all LNG demand will be met and that GPG [Gas Powered Generation] will be a lower priority for gas supply. In its modelling, AEMO has assumed that, if gas was unavailable for electricity generation, another fuel type (such as coal-fired or hydroelectric generation) could be substituted – an assumption likely to be increasingly challenged as the electricity supply demand balance tightens.”
“Industry data shows that the rate of exploration and development of oil and gas wells recently drilled in Australia has nearly halved. Gas extraction is becoming increasingly challenging for all producers, due to a variety of factors:
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