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Tag Archives: central banks
The Essence of Interest Rate Determination
The Essence of Interest Rate Determination According to mainstream thinking the Central Bank is the key factor in determining interest rates. By setting short-term interest rates the Central Bank, it is argued through expectations about the future course of its interest rate policy influences the entire interest rate structure. (According to the expectations theory (ET) […]
Global Economy Nearing a “Structural Recession”
Global Economy Nearing a “Structural Recession” And monetary policies will be “ineffective” To the never-ending astonishment of our economists, global growth has been much weaker since the Financial Crisis than before it, despite enormous global stimulus from years of extreme central-bank monetary policies and record amounts of government deficit spending. This should not have happened, according […]
Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession
Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession It is to be expected that economists – even economists working for the same team – have different views about the likelihood of different future outcomes. Economics isn’t rocket science, and even rockets frequently land in the wrong place or explode in […]
The Numbers Are In: China Dumps A Record $94 Billion In US Treasurys In One Month
The Numbers Are In: China Dumps A Record $94 Billion In US Treasurys In One Month Shortly after the PBoC’s move to devalue the yuan, we noted with some alarm that it looked as though China may have drawn down its reserves by more than $100 billion in the space of just two weeks. That, we went on […]
The Unwind
The Unwind Too often it’s as if I’m analyzing an altogether different world than conventional analysts. My strong preference is to be viewed as an adept and determined analyst, as opposed to some wacko extremist. I have always tried to distinguish my analysis from the “lunatic fringe.” It’s my overarching thesis that the world is […]
Inflation, the Fed, and the Big Picture
Inflation, the Fed, and the Big Picture CAMBRIDGE – Inflation – its causes and its connection to monetary policy and financial crises – was the theme of this year’s international conference of central bankers and academics in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But, while policymakers’ desire to be prepared for potential future risks to price stability is understandable, they […]
Europe’s Biggest Bank Dares To Ask: Is The Fed Preparing For A “Controlled Demolition”
Europe’s Biggest Bank Dares To Ask: Is The Fed Preparing For A “Controlled Demolition” Why did we focus so much attention yesterday on a post in which the IMF confirmed what we had said since last October, namely that the BOJ’s days of ravenous debt monetization are coming to a tapering end as soon as 2017 (as […]
Don’t Forget China’s “Other” Spinning Plate: Trillions In Hidden Bad Debt
Don’t Forget China’s “Other” Spinning Plate: Trillions In Hidden Bad Debt To be sure, there’s every reason to devote nearly incessant media coverage to China’s bursting stock market bubble and currency devaluation. The collapse of the margin fueled equity mania is truly a sight to behold and it’s made all the more entertaining (and tragic) […]
Global Economic Fears Cast Long Dark Shadow On Oil Price Rebound
Global Economic Fears Cast Long Dark Shadow On Oil Price Rebound After bouncing around, oil prices finished off the week with just a bit less volatility than when it started the week. WTI stayed at around $46 per barrel as of midday on September 4, with Brent holding at $50 per barrel. Aside from supply […]
“This Time May Be Different”: Desperate Central Banks Set To Dust Off Asia Crisis Playbook, Goldman Warns
“This Time May Be Different”: Desperate Central Banks Set To Dust Off Asia Crisis Playbook, Goldman Warns Early last month, Bloomberg observed that plunging currencies were “handcuffing bankers from Chile to Colombia.” The problem was described as follows: Central bankers in commodity-dependent Andes economies aren’t even considering interest-rate cuts to revive growth, even as prices for oil, […]
Meet QT; QE’s Evil Twin
Meet QT; QE’s Evil Twin There is a growing sense across the financial spectrum that the world is about to turn some type of economic page. Unfortunately no one in the mainstream is too sure what the last chapter was about, and fewer still have any clue as to what the next chapter will bring. […]
The IMF Just Confirmed The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks Is Now In Play
The IMF Just Confirmed The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks Is Now In Play The most important piece of news announced today was also, as usually happens, the most underreported: it had nothing to do with US jobs, with the Fed’s hiking intentions, with China, or even the ongoing “1998-style” carnage in emerging markets. Instead, […]
“It’s A Tipping Point” Marc Faber Warns “There Are No Safe Assets Anymore”
“It’s A Tipping Point” Marc Faber Warns “There Are No Safe Assets Anymore” Markets have “reached some kind of a tipping point,” warns Marc Faber in this brief Bloomberg TV interview. Simply put, he explains, “because of modern central banking and repeated interventions with monetary policy, in other words, with QE, all around the world by […]
The “Great Accumulation” Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World’s Central Banks Has Arrived
The “Great Accumulation” Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World’s Central Banks Has Arrived To be sure, there’s been no shortage of media coverage regarding the collapse in crude prices that’s unfolded over the course of the past year. Similarly, it’s no secret that commodity prices in general are sitting near their lowest levels […]
China: Doomed If You Do, Doomed If You Don’t
China: Doomed If You Do, Doomed If You Don’t Whichever option China chooses, it loses. Many commentators have ably explained the double-bind the central banks of the world find themselves in. Doing more of what’s failed is, well, failing to generate the desired results, but doing nothing also presents risks. China’s double-bind is especially instructive. While there an […]
