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The world didn’t completely fall apart in 2015, but it is undeniable that an immense amount of damage was done to the U.S. economy. This year the middle class continued to deteriorate, more Americans than ever found themselves living in poverty, and the debt bubble that we are living in expanded to absolutely ridiculous proportions. Toward the end of the year, a new global financial crisis erupted, and it threatens to completely spiral out of control as we enter 2016. Over the past six months, I have been repeatedly stressing to my readers that so many of the exact same patterns that immediately preceded the financial crisis of 2008 are happening once again, and trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has already been wiped out globally. Some of the largest economies on the entire planet such as Brazil and Canada have already plunged into deep recessions, and just about every leading indicator that you can think of is screaming that the U.S. is heading into one. So don’t be fooled by all the happy talk coming from Barack Obama and the mainstream media. When you look at the cold, hard numbers, they tell a completely different story. The following are 58 facts about the U.S. economy from 2015 that are almost too crazy to believe…

#1 These days, most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. At this point 62 percent of all Americans have less than 1,000 dollars in their savings accounts, and 21 percent of all Americans do not have a savings account at all.

#2 The lack of saving is especially dramatic when you look at Americans under the age of 55. Incredibly, fewer than 10 percent of all Millennials and only about 16 percent of those that belong to Generation X have 10,000 dollars or more saved up.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Canadians Should Be Concerned” As Energy Sector Job Losses Spike To 100,000 This Year

December 22, 2015

“Canadians Should Be Concerned” As Energy Sector Job Losses Spike To 100,000 This Year

It’s grim up north… and getting grimmer. Amid soaring suicide rates, Canada’s once-booming oil patch is rapidly accelerating its downward trajectory. “Canadians should be concerned in times like these,” warned Tim McMillan, president and chief executive of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, noting that the oil and gas sector will see 100,000 job losses by the end of this year. Even if oil prices rise early and fast next year, Financial Post reports, it may take a while for Canadian oilsands to rebound as the industry has mothballed a number of long-term projects.

Over the past year, we have extensively chronicled the tragic story of Alberta – Canada’s once booming oilpatch – disintegrate slowly at first, then very fast, into an economic and financial wasteland:

And, in one of the latest articles of this sad series describing the Alberta “bloodbath”, we said that the worst casualty of Canada’s recession has been the local commercial real estate market, where office vacancies are about to surpass the aftermath of the (first) great financial crisis.

But, it turns out the biggest casualty of Canada’s recession, which unless oil rebounds strongly soon will follow Brazil into an all out depression, are people themselves. As CBC reports the suicide rate in Alberta has increased dramatically in the wake of mounting job losses across the province.

Sadly, as The Financial Post reports, the situation looks set to get worse… as policy uncertainty has exacerbated the pain of low prices…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Plunged Below 38 Dollars A Barrel?

December 8, 2015

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Plunged Below 38 Dollars A Barrel?

On Monday, the price of U.S. oil dropped below 38 dollars a barrel for the first time in six years. The last time the price of oil was this low, the global financial system was melting down and the U.S. economy was experiencing the worst recession that it had seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As I write this article, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at $37.65. For months, I have been warning that the crash in the price of oil would be extremely deflationary and would have severe consequences for the global economy. Nations such as Japan, Canada, Brazil and Russia have already plunged into recession, and more than half of all major global stock market indexes are down at least 10 percent year to date. The first major global financial crisis since 2009 has begun, and things are only going to get worse as we head into 2016.

The global head of oil research at Societe Generale, Mike Wittner, says that his “head is spinning” after the stunning drop in the price of oil on Monday. Just like during the last financial crisis, we have broken the psychologically important 40 dollar barrier, and there are concerns that we could go much lower from here…

One analyst told CNBC that he believes that we could soon see the price of U.S. oil go all the way down to 32 dollars a barrel…

“We’re in a tug-of-war between a heavily shorted market and a glut of oil in the U.S. and globally, as Saudi Arabia continues to produce oil at elevated levels to maintain market share,” said Chris Jarvis at Caprock Risk Management, an energy markets consultancy in Frederick, Maryland.

“Couple this with a strengthening dollar as the market anticipates a U.S. rate hike this month, oil is heading lower with a near term target of $32 for WTI.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Suicides In Alberta Soar In Wake Of Canada’s Oilpatch Depression

December 8, 2015

Suicides In Alberta Soar In Wake Of Canada’s Oilpatch Depression

And, in the last article in this sad series describing the Alberta “bloodbath”, we said that the biggest casualty of Canada’s recession has been the local commercial real estate market, where office vacancies are about to surpass the aftermath of the (first) great financial crisis.

We were wrong: the biggest casualty of Canada’s recession, which unless oil rebounds strongly soon will follow Brazil into an all out depression, are people themselves. As CBC reports the suicide rate in Alberta has increased dramatically in the wake of mounting job losses across the province.

According to the Canadian media, the most recent data only goes to June, but according to the chief medical examiner’s office, 30 per cent more Albertans took their lives in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.

That’s how bad Canada’s economic recession is: the real casualties are no longer metaphorical economic objects, but the very people who until recently enjoyed comfortable lives only to succumb to an unprecedented collapse in the local economy.

Here are the statistics as reported by CBC:

From January to June 2014, there were 252 suicides in Alberta.
During the same period this year, there were 327.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alarm Bells Go Off As 11 Critical Indicators Scream The Global Economic Crisis Is Getting Deeper

December 3, 2015

Alarm Bells Go Off As 11 Critical Indicators Scream The Global Economic Crisis Is Getting Deeper

Economic activity is slowing down all over the planet, and a whole host of signs are indicating that we are essentially exactly where we were just prior to the great stock market crash of 2008. Yesterday, I explained that the economies of Japan, Brazil, Canada and Russia are all in recession. Today, I am mainly going to focus on the United States. We are seeing so many things happen right now that we have not seen since 2008 and 2009. In so many ways, it is almost as if we are watching an eerie replay of what happened the last time around, and yet most of the “experts” still appear to be oblivious to what is going on. If you were to make up a checklist of all of the things that you would expect to see just before a major stock market crash, virtually all of them are happening right now. The following are 11 critical indicators that are absolutely screaming that the global economic crisis is getting deeper…

#1 On Tuesday, the price of oil closed below 40 dollars a barrel. Back in 2008, the price of oil crashed below 40 dollars a barrel just before the stock market collapsed, and now it has happened again.

#2 The price of copper has plunged all the way down to $2.04. The last time it was this low was just before the stock market crash of 2008.

#3 The Business Roundtable’s forecast for business investment in 2016 has dropped to the lowest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#4 Corporate debt defaults have risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession. This is a huge problem because corporate debt in the U.S. has approximately doubled since just before the last financial crisis.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Brazil Devolves Into Full-Blown Political Crisis With Launch Of Impeachment Proceedings Against President Rouseff

December 2, 2015

Brazil Devolves Into Full-Blown Political Crisis With Launch Of Impeachment Proceedings Against President Rouseff

Moments ago Brazil lower house chief Eduardo Cunha announced that he has accepted an impeachment request filed by Helio Bicudo. Cunha told reporters in Brasilia that the decision is not political, and while one can debate that, the implications will have a tremendous impact on both Brazil’s political situation not to mention its already imploding economy.

As Bloomberg adds, Cunha told reporters in Brasilia on Wednesday he “profoundly regrets” what’s happening. “May our country overcome this process.” The impeachment process could take months, involving several votes in Congress that ultimately may result in the president’s ouster. Rousseff would challenge any impeachment proceedings in the Supreme Court, according to a government official with direct knowledge of her defense strategy.

The speaker’s decision will put the president’s support in Congress to a test after government and opposition spent months trying to rally lawmakers to their sides. The move also threatens to paralyze Rousseff’s economic agenda as she focuses on saving her political life rather than reviving growth. Her ouster would mark the downfall of the ruling Workers’ Party that won global renown for lifting tens of millions from poverty before becoming ensnared in Brazil’s largest-ever corruption scandal.

Accusations that top members of her party accepted bribes, coupled with surging consumer prices and rising unemployment, have driven Rousseff’s approval rating to record lows. The majority of Brazilians in public opinion polls agreed that Congress should open impeachment proceedings against the president.

The story gets better because Cunha himself is facing allegations that he accepted kickbacks and hid the money in overseas accounts. The lower house ethics committee is considering whether to open a probe that could result in his removal from office. His decision today comes after Workers’ Party members on the committee agreed Dec. 2 to vote in favor of investigating Cunha. The speaker denies wrongdoing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Pretty Soon We Have to Start Labeling this a Depression”: Goldman Sachs on Brazil

December 2, 2015

“Pretty Soon We Have to Start Labeling this a Depression”: Goldman Sachs on Brazil

It Just Keeps Getting Worse and Worse

Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, now the 8th largest in the world, down from 6th place during the glorious BRICs days of 2011, is sinking deeper and deeper into trouble.

An epic corruption and kickback scandal surrounding state-run oil company Petrobras is spreading up the government pyramid to the highest levels – a week ago, the government’s Senate leader was arrested for allegedly trying to meddle in the investigations. As the scandal is metastasizing, political decision-making is gridlocked, and the confidence of consumers and businesses has been demolished.

The budget deficit is ballooning as the economy is spiraling down. On Monday, the government imposed a partial shutdown and froze discretionary spending. Standard & Poor’s has slashed Brazil to junk, citing government finances, the political mess, and the deepening economic nightmare. Moody’s and Fitch still rate it just above junk, with their downgrade fingers itching to pull the trigger.

All this comes at the worst possible moment for the economy. GDP fell 1.7% in the third quarter, the national statistics institute (IBGE) announced today. Year over year, GDP plunged 4.5%, the sixth contraction in a row, and the worst since the beginning of modern records in 1996.

“There is no room for any growth in the coming quarters,” Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Gradual Investimentos in Sao Paulo, told Bloomberg. “The situation is really, really bad,” he said, likening the GDP report to “an obituary.”

This is what Brazil’s annualized GDP growth rates look like for the past 12 quarters:

The economy was dragged down at all corners. Manufacturing fell 3.1%. Business investment dropped 4%, down for the ninth quarter in a row. But this year, even consumer spending is plunging, whacked by rising unemployment – now at 8.9%, according to the official unemployment rate – and soaring inflation, now over 10%, which is sapping the purchasing power of the lucky ones that still have jobs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“There Are No More Dollars In The Central Bank”: Argentina’s New President Confronts Liquidity Crisis

November 25, 2015

“There Are No More Dollars In The Central Bank”: Argentina’s New President Confronts Liquidity Crisis

On Monday, Mauricio Macri, the son of Italian-born construction tycoon Francesco Macri, beat out Cristina Kirchner’s handpicked successor Daniel Scioli for Argentina’s presidency in what amounted to a referendum on 12 years of Peronist rule.

A legacy of defaults combined with exceptionally high inflation and slow growth finally tipped the scales on the Leftists and now, Macri will try to clean up the mess.

As Citi noted in the wake of Macri’s victory (which was accompanied by some very bad dancing), “the most urgent challenge on the economic front is FX policy.” The President-elect wants to unify the official and parallel exchange rates (~9.60 and 15.50 ARS/USD, respectively) and that will of course entail a substantial devaluation. Just how overvalued is the peso, you ask? “Grossly” so, Citi says. Here’s their take:

Regarding the real overvaluation of the ARS, we estimate that real effective exchange rate has dropped (appreciated) 44% since 2011. Thus, for Argentina to have the same REER than four years ago, the USDARS should stand at 17. A different approach would be to compare the evolution of the real exchange rate vis-à-vis the USD in Argentina and other countries in the region. While the LatAm currencies (BRL, CLP, COP, MXN, PEN and UYU) real exchange rates relative to the USD have increased on average 36% since 2011, the USDARS has dropped 19% in real terms. Thus, from this point of view, the USDARS should stand 68% higher at 16.1.

A key figure in the execution of Macri’s currency plan is former JP Morgan global head of FX research Alfonso Prat-Gay who will be Argentina’s finance minister under the new Presdent. Prat-Gay was president of the country’s central bank beginning in 2002 and, as Reuters reminds us, “won widespread acclaim for swiftly taming runaway inflation and championing central bank independence.” If that sounds to you like characteristics that might rub a Peronist the wrong way, you’d be right, and Prat-Gay was ousted by the Kirchners.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The U.S. Dollar Has Already Caused A Global Recession And Now The Fed Is Going To Make It Worse

November 24, 2015

The U.S. Dollar Has Already Caused A Global Recession And Now The Fed Is Going To Make It Worse

The 7th largest economy on the entire planet, Brazil, has been gripped by a horrifying recession, as has much of the rest of South America. But it isn’t just South America that is experiencing a very serious economic downturn. We have just learned that Japan (the third largest economy in the world) has lapsed into recession. So has Canada. So has Russia. The dominoes are starting to fall, and it looks like the global economic crisis that has already started is going to accelerate as we head into the end of the year. At this point, global trade is already down about 8.4 percent for the year, and last week the Baltic Dry Shipping Index plummeted to a brand new all-time record low. Unfortunately for all of us, the Federal Reserve is about to do something that will make this global economic slowdown even worse.

Throughout 2015, the U.S. dollar has been getting stronger. That sounds like good news, but the truth is that it is not. When the last financial crisis ended, emerging markets went on a debt binge unlike anything we have ever seen before. But much of that debt was denominated in U.S. dollars, and now this is creating a massive problem. As the U.S. dollar has risen, the prices that many of these emerging markets are getting for the commodities that they export have been declining. Meanwhile, it is taking much more of their own local currencies to pay back and service all of the debts that they have accumulated. Similar conditions contributed to the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the Asian currency crisis of the 1990s and the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Venezuelan President Calls NSA Spying on State Oil Company ‘Vulgar,” Orders Official Inquiry

November 21, 2015

Venezuelan President Calls NSA Spying on State Oil Company ‘Vulgar,” Orders Official Inquiry

Venezuela will conduct a “comprehensive review of relations with the United States” and submitted a formal protest over new evidence that the National Security Agency spied on state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, the country’s president announced.

President Nicolas Maduro spoke about the latest spying revelations at an event late Wednesday night. Earlier in the day, The Intercept and teleSUR jointly published reports, based on a top-secret document provided by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden, detailing how the intelligence agency gained large-scale access to PDVSA’s internal computer network and successfully targeted top executives for electronic surveillance.

One named NSA target was Rafael Ramírez, PDVSA’s president from 2004 to 2014, now serving as Venezuela’s ambassador to the United Nations. Last month the Wall Street Journal reportedthat Ramírez has been the subject of a U.S. Justice Department investigation for alleged corruption during his time at the oil company.

Maduro called the U.S. espionage, conducted in part from its embassy in Caracas, “vulgar” and an “illegal action in light of international law.”

On Thursday, U.S. charge d’affaires in Caracas, Lee McClenny, was summoned to receive an official letter of protest from Alejandro Fleming, Venezuela’s deputy foreign minister.

In a press briefing, U.S. State Department spokesperson John Kirby declined to address the allegations directly, saying the State Department would instead “respond through diplomatic channels to the Venezuelan Government.”

Kirby added, “There’s no intent to use electronic surveillance to benefit commercial gain. That’s not changed,” echoing previous statements from President Barack Obama and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.

After Brazilian network TV Globo revealed NSA spying on Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobrás in 2013, Clapper issued a statement affirming that the U.S. “collects information about economic and financial matters,” but does not use its “foreign intelligence capabilities to steal the trade secrets of foreign companies on behalf of — or give intelligence we collect to — U.S. companies to enhance their international competitiveness or increase their bottom line.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Induced Farce

November 19, 2015

The Fed Induced Farce

The minutes from the last Fed meeting were released on Wednesday afternoon. The minutes, along with a squadron of jabbering Fed heads lying about the economy doing great, pretty much locked in the most talked about .25% interest rate increase in world history. Evidently the Wall Street titans of greed have convinced the muppets higher interest rates are great for stocks, as the market soared by 250 points. As institutional money exits the market on these rigged up days, the dumb money retail investor buys into the market with dreams of riches just like they did with Pets.com in 2000, McMansions in 2005, and Bear Stearns in 2007.

The Fed has lost any credibility they ever thought they deserved by delaying this meaningless insignificant interest rate increase for the last three years, so they will make this token increase in December come hell or high water. They want to give themselves some leeway for easing again when this debt saturated global economy implodes in the near future. The Fed is trapped by their own cowardice and capture by the Wall Street cabal. If they raise rates the USD will strengthen even more than it has already. The USD is already at 11 year highs. It has appreciated by 25% in the last year versus the basket of world currencies. The babbling boobs on the entertainment news channels authoritatively expound with a straight face about the rise in the dollar being due to our strong economic performance. It’s beyond laughable, as the economy has been sucking wind since the day the Fed turned off the QE spigot in October 2014.

Chart of the Day

Anyone with a working brain and an IQ over 100 (eliminates the bimbos and boobs on CNBC) can see the USD isn’t strengthening of its own accord.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shares Of World’s Largest Miner Plunge To Seven-Year Low After Massive Toxic Mudslide Engulfs Brazilian Village

November 10, 2015

Shares Of World’s Largest Miner Plunge To Seven-Year Low After Massive Toxic Mudslide Engulfs Brazilian Village

Ok, so if you’re the world’s largest mining company, one thing you don’t want is a global deflationary supply glut brought on by depressed demand from China and a worldwide excess capacity problem.

Another thing you don’t want is for a tailings dam to burst, sending a river of toxic mud into a nearby village in South America.

Well, BHP Billiton is now dealing with both of those issues and the market is punishing the stock, which hit a seven-year low on Monday as analysts and investors alike attempt to figure out how the company intends to clean up a spectacular (in a bad way) mess in Minas Gerais.

Here’s what happened, in BHP’s words:

The Samarco operations include a three tiered tailings dam complex. Within this complex, the Fundão dam failed and the downstream Santarém dam has been affected. This resulted in a significant release of mine tailings, flooding the community of Bento Rodrigues and impacting other communities downstream. The third dam in the complex, the Germano dam, is being monitored by Samarco. At this time, there is no confirmation of the causes of the tailings release.

Samarco is jointly operated with Brazilian giant Vale and BHP has been keen to note that the joint venture is “responsible for the entirety” of the Minas Gerais operations. After the company’s operating license was revoked on Monday, its debt plunged, with some $2.2 billion in paper due 2022, 2023, and 2024 hitting record lows.

For those who might have missed it, the following images will tell you pretty much all you need to know about what happened:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Confirmation: China As Brazil

October 25, 2015

Confirmation: China As Brazil

There is always some chicken and egg to any financial irregularity; as in does a crisis cause a panic or is it the panic that causes the crisis? Though the evidence of the past eight years is decidedly on the side of the irregularity, central banks continue to press as if that were not so. In no uncertain terms, central bankers persist in expressing their own confidence and, if you read or listen closely enough, great disdain for free markets they deem unworthy as if nothing more than unchained emotion. In the context of 2008, as the current FOMC tells it, the markets got all worked up over nothing much and should have instead simply enjoyed the blind faith in the Fed to have fixed it all without the fuss and bother.

As offensive as that sounds, that is exactly what is being preached. Janet Yellen in April 2014:

Fundamental to modern thinking on central banking is the idea that monetary policy is more effective when the public better understands and anticipates how the central bank will respond to evolving economic conditions. Specifically, it is important for the central bank to make clear how it will adjust its policy stance in response to unforeseen economic developments in a manner that reduces or blunts potentially harmful consequences. If the public understands and expects policymakers to behave in this systematically stabilizing manner, it will tend to respond less to such developments.

There is a fatal fallacy at the heart of this philosophy, one in which has blinded these economists as they marvel at their own assumed powers. Yellen suggests that markets should stop worrying so much about liquidity and other perhaps tangential, but no less meaningful, factors and instead only ignore them in the comfort that Yellen has those all under control. It is no less destructive conceit, one which was revealed to all amply this past decade – starting with the housing bubble itself.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Last 30 Years of Global Economic History Are About to Go Out the Window

October 18, 2015

The Last 30 Years of Global Economic History Are About to Go Out the Window

Over the last 30 years, a near constant flow of cash has inundated China and other emerging markets. It has lifted those economies, pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and dictated corporate expansion plans worldwide.

That wave is now ebbing.

Net_capital_flows_to_emerging_market_economies__Annual__Forecast_chartbuilder

This year will see the first net outflow of capital from emerging markets in 27 years, according to the Institute of International Finance, a trade group representing international bankers. The group expects more than $500 billion worth of cash previously invested in things like Chinese factories, Brazilian government bonds, and Nigerian stocks to cascade out of such markets this year.

What’s going on? In a word: China.

In a profound change of narrative for both the global economy and markets that are closely tied to it, the story of fast Chinese growth—a story that has soothed investors and corporate managers around the world since the 1980s—is looking increasingly tough to square with the evidence. And it’s even tougher to imagine anything else like China—a billion new consumers joining the global economy—emerging any time soon.

GDP growth in the People’s Republic fell to 7% per year in the second quarter, according to official numbers—some of the most most sluggish growth since the 2008 global financial crisis.

And most analysts say even those numbers should be taken with a handful of salt. For instance, economic forecasting firm Capital Economics estimates that GDP in the first half of 2015 grew not at 7% year-over-year, but at just above 4%.

Of course, the slowdown in China isn’t confined to China. Over the last 30 years, countries worldwide have built their economies to service the needs of the People’s Republic. Brazil would be a case in point.

Weak Chinese demand hurts China’s suppliers…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Brazil Faces Unemployment “Crisis”, As Retail Sales Plunge, Rousseff Blasts “Coup-Mongers”

October 15, 2015

Brazil Faces Unemployment “Crisis”, As Retail Sales Plunge, Rousseff Blasts “Coup-Mongers”

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff got a rare bit of respite on Tuesday when a Supreme Court justice granted an injunction that delays a lower house vote which could have paved the way for impeachment proceedings.

House speaker Eduardo Cunha has remained defiant, vowing to exercise his “constitutional prerogative” to review impeachment requests.

Of course Cunha has his own set of problems. Allegations of corruption tied to the discovery of Swiss bank accounts have led to calls for his resignation and that, in turn, has Rousseff’s “aides fear[ing] the speaker could try to speed up the impeachment process.” As Reuters notes, if Cunha accepts even one of three impeachment petitions he has on his desk, “a parliamentary commission with representatives of all parties would analyze it and put it to a lower house vote.”

It is essentially a race against time to see if the house ethics committee will force his resignation before he can secure the lower house support to force a Senate impeachment trial.

For her part, Rousseff has accused the opposition of “coup-mongering” following last week’s ruling by the TCU that she cooked the fiscal books.

Meanwhile, as the intractable political stalemate keeps investors on edge regarding whether the government will be stable enough to enact the reforms needed to plug the budget gap, the economy continues to crumble.

We got a look at retail sales for August today and the picture was not pretty. Core retail sales fell by a larger-than-expected 0.9% month on month and July was revised lower to -1.6%. Broad retail sales fell 2.0% auto sales crashed 5.2%. Annually, core fell by 6.9% broad by 9.6% yoy. Here’s Goldman with the takeaway:

The near-term outlook for private consumption and retail sales remains negative owing to the significant deceleration of credit flows from both private and public banks, high levels of household indebtedness, declining job creation and real wage growth, higher interest rates, higher taxes (including via inflation), higher utility and transportation tariffs, heightened economic and political uncertainty and very depressed (record low) consumer confidence.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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