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As Germany and France Come Apart, So Too Will the EU
As Germany and France Come Apart, So Too Will the EU If we follow the logic and evidence presented in these seven points, we are forced to conclude that the fractures in France, Germany and the EU are widening by the day. When is a nation-state no longer a functional state? It’s an interesting question […]
The Decline and Fall of the European Union
The Decline and Fall of the European Union This exhaustion of the neocolonial-neofeudal model was inevitable, and as a result, so too is the decline and fall of the European integration/exploitation project. That a single currency, the euro, would fracture rather than unite Europe was understood long before the euro’s introduction as legal tender on […]
Where Will You Be Seated at the Banquet of Consequences?
Where Will You Be Seated at the Banquet of Consequences? The Banquet of Consequences is being laid out, and so the question is: where will you be seated? The answer depends on two dynamics I’ve mentioned many times: what types of capital you own and the asymmetries of our economy. One set of asymmetries is the result of the system […]
The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed
The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed Those households, enterprises and organizations that have no debt, a very low cost basis and a highly flexible, adaptable structure will survive and even prosper. The coming recession will be unevenly distributed, meaning that it will devastate many while leaving others relatively untouched. A few will actually do better […]
If We Can No Longer Tell the Truth, We’ve Failed
If We Can No Longer Tell the Truth, We’ve Failed The Gulag Archipelago is not a distant memory; it lives on in every modern state, cloaked with modern-day technologies and the well-worn tools of suppression. The last thing addicts want to hear is the truth: the only thing more terrifying than the truth is the […]
2019: Fragmented, Unevenly Distributed, Asymmetric, Opaque
2019: Fragmented, Unevenly Distributed, Asymmetric, Opaque Add up Fragmented, Unevenly Distributed, Asymmetric and Opaque and you get a world spinning out of centralized control. Here are the key dynamics of 2019: fragmented, unevenly distributed, asymmetric, opaque. Want to know what’s happening with inflation, deflation, recession, populism, etc.? It depends on what you own, when you […]
Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary?
Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary? It’s not yet clear that the stock market swoon is predictive or merely a panic attack triggered by a loss of meds. We contrarians can’t help it: when the herd is bullish, we start looking for a reversal. When the herd turns bearish, we […]
Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?
Getty images Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008? Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions Even people who don’t follow the stock market closely are aware that the global economy is weakening and appears to be heading into recession. For those who track the stock market, the signs are ominous: the U.S. was […]
Commoditization = Deflation
Commoditization = Deflation The other deflationary pressure is the stagnation of wages for the bottom 90%. Apple’s slumping sales growth in China re-energized discussions on the commoditization of smart phones: the basic idea is that once devices, services, goods, platforms, etc. are interchangeable and can be produced/generated anywhere, they are effectively commodities and their value […]
A Couple of Thoughts on 2019
A Couple of Thoughts on 2019 The story of the 21st century is debt is soaring while earned income is stagnating for the bottom 95%. Best wishes to all my readers and correspondents for a safe, healthy and productive 2019. Thank you, longstanding supporters, for renewing your financial support at the new year without any […]
The Crisis of Capital
The Crisis of Capital These three dynamics render capital increasingly vulnerable to catastrophic losses as backstops and distorted markets fail. The undeniable reality of the 21st century economy is that capital has gained while labor has stagnated. While various critics quibbled about his methodology, Thomas Piketty’s core finding–that capital expanded faster than GDP and wages/salaries […]
When Certainty Frays, Capital Gets Skittish
When Certainty Frays, Capital Gets Skittish The net result is capital is impaired in eras of uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2019, what can we be certain of? Maybe your list is long, but mine has only one item: certainty is fraying. Confidence in financial policies intended to eliminate recessions is fraying, confidence in […]
Why I’m Hopeful
Why I’m Hopeful A more humane, sustainable world lies just beyond the edge of the Status Quo. Readers often ask me to post something hopeful, and I understand why: doom-and-gloom gets tiresome. Human beings need hope just as they need oxygen, and the destruction of the Status Quo via over-reach and internal contradictions doesn’t leave […]
America Has a “Neo-feudal” System
America Has a “Neo-feudal” System The conventional definition of a Bear is someone who expects stocks to decline. For those of us who are bearish on fake fixes, that definition doesn’t apply: we aren’t making guesses about future market gyrations (rip-your-face-off rallies, dizziness-inducing drops, boring melt-ups, etc.). No, we’re focused on the impossibility of reforming […]
Why Everything That Needs to Be Fixed Remains Permanently Broken
Why Everything That Needs to Be Fixed Remains Permanently Broken Just in case you missed what’s going on in France: the status quo in Europe is doomed. The status quo has a simple fix for every crisis and systemic problem: 1. create currency out of thin air 2. give it to super-wealthy banks, financiers and […]
