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Iran Says If US ‘Interferes’ In Retaliation On Israel, American Bases Will Be Struck

Iran Says If US ‘Interferes’ In Retaliation On Israel, American Bases Will Be Struck

Update(1317ET): Israeli hospitals have been put on a high state of alert by the home command, awaiting an ‘imminent’ Iranian retaliation attack. Iran has also reportedly put the United States on notice…

Three U.S. Officials told Axios : Iran has sent a message to the U.S. through several Arab countries, that if they interfere in Iran’s response against Israel, U.S. bases in the region will be struck.

Meanwhile, Russia just chose quite the wrong moment to conduct a test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from its Kapustin Yar airbase in southern Russia. The rocket was reportedly seen soaring high in the atmosphere from parts of northern Iraq and Iran, triggering concerns it was Iran beginning its attack.

Below are some breaking headlines:

  • ALERT US sends reinforcements to Middle East amid fears of Iran attack: official
  • A large number of Iron Dome missiles were launched in the Upper Galilee after a salvo of 50 missiles was launched from Lebanon
  • Israel’s Channel 12 reports Home Front Command has sent hospitals a message in the last hour asking hospital managers to ensure staff availability.
  • The White House has Confirmed a change in U.S. Force and Alert Posture across the Middle East, but has Refused to go into further details.

Hezbollah appears to have ramped up its missile salvos over northern Israel:

There are also new reports that the US Navy has parked an advanced missile ship just off Israel’s coast, readying to assist with a possible response.

* * *

Update(1116ET): At a moment US intelligence has indicated that Iran could strike Israeli soil in the next 24 to 48 hours, a top US general was spotted at an airbase in central Israel on Friday…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark 1970s Oil Shock Fears

Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark 1970s Oil Shock Fears

Larry MacDonald of The Bear Traps Report penned a very informative note last month that outlined, “2023-2024 look a lot like 1973-1974.” He said, “We’re one event away from a 1970s-style stagflation explosion…” History books remind us that the 1973 oil embargo shook the global energy market.

We were reminded of MacDonald’s note because the global benchmark Brent is currently being subjected to a major repricing event of geopolitical risk as Israel makes preparations for a potential retaliation by Tehran after a precision strike in Syria earlier this week killed top Iranian commanders.

“The market now knows that some kind of retaliation from Iran will likely come, but it doesn’t know when and where and what, and that creates a great discomfort and nervousness,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB, told Bloomberg.

On Thursday, UBS desk trader Alexander Gray outlined several bullish factors into Brent’s surge that has the benchmark around $91/bbl handle:

  1. Rally / buying right into the 14:30 New York energy close – suggests heavy index fund prepositioning ahead of GSCI roll onset tomorrow where energy will be weighted in the index
  2. Geopolitics – reports of potential attacks within Iran and also potential retaliation toward Israel following Monday’s airstrikes.
  3. Bullish consensus and flow – a number of Street strategists have been out today talking about upside risk toward the $95-100 range in crude. Meanwhile, flows here have skewed toward upside buying in the options space
  4. Technicals – Front-month WTI crude oil just completed a ‘golden cross’ technical formation with the 50- and 200-day moving average crossover. The front month is aimed at $88.58 above; $91.08 is key as the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level in Brent… which is precisely where Brent is trading at this moment..

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Something Broke In Markets On Thursday

Something Broke In Markets On Thursday

This Friday is going to be a session for active short-term traders, and it will likely be unpleasant for investors.

Something broke in markets on Thursday. There are a few things that worry me about the latest bout of risk aversion. This is in context that I’ve been an unrelenting stocks bull since the December Fed meeting…

But now I’m uneasy…

The Thursday selloff confused people.

Initially, many blamed the comments from Fed’s Kashkari about there potentially being no US rate cuts this year.

However, a quick look at a few charts shows that (a) yields fell rather than climbed, so his hawkish lines did not impact, and (b) equities started selling off before his headlines.

It’s never a good sign when people struggle to identify why stocks have a relatively large swoon.

If an asset is weak without an obvious catalyst, it suggests that it can really get destroyed if a genuine risk materializes.

For good order, the weakness in E-minis coincided with the oil price rise that in turn followed the Netanyahu headlines.

We have key US data this morning at a time of vulnerability for the market in terms of the Fed narrative.

We’ve run a long way on the idea of the Fed being dovish despite a strong US economy.

We’re getting closer to the point where we must acknowledge that either the Fed won’t be easing soon, OR the economy is in more trouble than we thought.

It means that we’re in the unusual-in-recent-times setup where a big surprise in either direction could hurt stocks today.

(For clarity and consistency, I would only see this as a multi-week consolidation/retrenchment and not some long-term bearish turning point).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Israel Warns Iran Of Massive Regional War If Directly Attacked

Israel Warns Iran Of Massive Regional War If Directly Attacked

Update(1831ET): With Israel’s embassies around the world on a heightened state of alert, and extra IDF reservists called up, and home and weekend leave for all combat troops having been abruptly canceled Thursday, the Israeli population is anxiously awaiting a response – with some reports saying residents are already seeking the safety of bomb shelters.

Tehran has vowed that vengeance is coming soon for the Monday Israeli airstrike on its embassy in Damascus. Most pundits believe this will take the form of ballistic missiles raining down on Israeli cities. But Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly vowing that if the Islamic Republic launches missiles from its soil it will ensure “a strong response” from Israel.

Israeli officials have told Axios late in the day that such an act would “take the current conflict to another level” — which most certainly would involve a direct Israel-Iran war and thus the eruption of a broader regional conflict. Axios adds the following observations:

  • Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza have attacked Israel but there hasn’t been an attack from Iranian soil.
  • A direct Iranian strike on Israel would be unprecedented and could lead to a regional war in the Middle East.

Netanyahu informed his security cabinet Thursday that Israel’s forces have already been engaged with Iran “both directly and via its proxies, and therefore Israel is operating against Iran and its proxies, both defensively and offensively.”

A statement issued by the prime minister’s office laid out: “We will know how to defend ourselves and will operate according to the basic principle of whoever is harming or planning to harm us — we will harm him.” The White House has meanwhile issued a statement shortly after Biden and Netanyahu discussed the Gaza crisis, saying “President Biden made clear that the United States strongly supports Israel in the face of those [Iranian] threats.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Oil Surges Over $90, Stocks Tumble After Israel Puts Embassies Around World On Maximum Alert

Oil Surges Over $90, Stocks Tumble After Israel Puts Embassies Around World On Maximum Alert

At this point Israel’s ties with key Gulf countries like the UAE are near breaking point, after only a few short years ago diplomatic normalization was hailed through Trump’s Abraham accords. But international and Israeli press reports are confirming the UAE has announced it is halting all coordination on humanitarian aid with Israel.

Further, as Israeli media reports: “The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a suspension of diplomatic coordination with Israel in the wake of the death of seven World Central Kitchen humanitarian workers in Gaza.” Simultaneously, Israel is busy putting its embassies across the world on high security alert due to the “heightened Iranian response threat” in wake of Monday’s Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. All of this served to send Brent soaring in the last two hours, with Brent spiking above $90 for the first time since October….

… and sending stocks tumbling to session lows.

With Iran vowing that its retaliation is coming at any moment, Israel’s military is scrambling for readiness, with the latest measure being to pause all home leave for all combat troops.

“The IDF is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed,” the Israeli military said.

President Biden is meanwhile is said to be “pissed” with PM Netanyahu over the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza, though Israel acknowledged that it was a “grave mistake”.

So far this sounds like more mere empty words of “concern” – a talking point that’s been on repeat from the White House even as its Gaza policy continues slowly fracturing the Democratic base – but Biden is said to have pressed Bibi for “an immediate ceasefire”.

The call readout further said ceasefire is needed to “protect innocent civilians” in Gaza and improve the humanitarian situation. Axios writes that Biden gave his Israeli counterpart an “ultimatum” as the US president “emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable.”

“IDF At War”: Israel Scrambles GPS Signal As Iran Revenge Attack Imminent

“IDF At War”: Israel Scrambles GPS Signal As Iran Revenge Attack Imminent

With ever-present fears, Tehran could launch a missile or drone attack against Israel to avenge the deaths of three commanders and four officers of the Iranian Armed Forces, taken out by a precision Israeli airstrike at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus earlier this week. New data suggests that GPS jamming across Israel is likely related to prudent defensive efforts to counter such an attack.

On Thursday, Reuters journalists and Tel Aviv residents said GPS service deteriorated and, in some cases, entirely disrupted as an attempt by the military to prevent guided missiles and drones from hitting critical high-value targets deep within the nation.

Many bombs, drones, and other weapons use GNSS (global navigation satellite systems) for increased accuracy. Signs of GNSS signals disrupted are more evidence Israel is on the defensive as it awaits missile attacks from Iran.

Data from the GPS interference website “GPSJAM” shows large swaths of Israel have high levels of GPS interference.

Other signs the conflict in the Middle East is broadening and entering a new dimension are reports that the Israeli military halted leave for all combat units on Thursday.

“The IDF is at war, and the deployment of forces is under continuous assessment according to requirements,” the military told Reuters in a statement.

In a separate report, Israel’s military said it was strengthening its aerial defense system with reserve soldiers:

“It was decided to increase manpower and draft reserve soldiers to the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) Aerial Defense Array.” 

This follows the deaths of some of the highest-ranking leaders in the Quds Force, who were in charge of Iran’s covert intelligence and military operations across Syria and Lebanon on Monday. The strike was among the deadliest for the Iranian military in years (read: “ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead: This Is A Declaration Of War”).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadians Are F**ked: Secret RCMP Report

Canadians Are F**ked: Secret RCMP Report

A previously secret (and still heavily redacted) RCMP report warns the Canadian government to expect civil unrest once citizens realize how totally screwed the economic situation is, the National Post reports.

The coming period of recession will … accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations,” reads the “Whole-of-Government Five-Year Trends’ report for Canada- of which the aforementioned heavily redacted version was made public thanks to an ‘access of information’ request filed by Matt Malone, an assistant professor of law at British Columbia’s Thompson Rivers University, and an expert in government secrecy.

“For example, many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live,” the report continues.

According to the report, labeled as “special operational information” and originally intended to be distributed only within the RCMP and among “decision makers” in the federal government, trends are in motion “that could have a significant effect on the Canadian government and the RCMP.”

The authors warn that Canada’s current situation “will probably deteriorate further in the next five years,” and that in addition to worsening living standards, Canada faces unpredictable seasonal catastrophes, including wildfires and flooding.

Another major theme of the report is that Canadians are set to become increasingly disillusioned with their government, which authors mostly chalk up to “misinformation,” “conspiracy theories” and “paranoia.” -National Post

“Law enforcement should expect continuing social and political polarization fueled by misinformation campaigns and an increasing mistrust for all democratic institutions,” reads one of the report’s “overarching considerations,” the Post reports.

“Erosion of Trust”

“The past seven years have seen marked social and political polarization in the Western world,” reads part of the first sentence of a heavily redacted section, entitled “erosion of trust,” with the remainder deleted by government censors – who also eliminated most of a section warning about “paranoid populism.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sick Of It All

Sick Of It All

Every week, usually once or twice, I sit down to put onto paper my thoughts about the market. And every week, my disgust not only for the rigged system that encompasses our equity markets, but also for the sound of my own whining, grows exponentially.

When I sit down to perfunctorily prattle on about how nothing makes sense and how I constantly see things the polar opposite of 99% of everybody else in the world of finance every week, I usually wonder two things.

First, I wonder whether or not today will finally be the day that I capitulate, get bullish on the stock market, and start bowing religiously to a statue of Stephanie Kelton.

“I should know, I’ve followed a few!” – Arthur

After all, the incessant price moves higher in Bitcoin are part of what triggered me to eventually reassess my thought process on the cryptocurrency. And even though I got bullish for reasons other than price, why couldn’t the same happen with equities?

Second, I try to conceptualize exactly how fast the universe can, and will, make a total ass out of me by crashing markets 50% in 15 minutes in the days, hours, minutes, or probably even seconds after I’d have such a shift in sentiment.

Which is why, like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, I will continue to forge forward, exasperated, regardless of the inconvenient fact that I have no arms or legs left. But don’t let anybody ever tell you that my spirit was easy to break.

“The Black Knight always triumphs!”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Israel Mounts Largest Attack On Syria In Years, Over 40 Dead

Israel Mounts Largest Attack On Syria In Years, Over 40 Dead

On Friday Israel conducted its deadliest strikes on Syria in months, or perhaps even years, given the immense death toll is mounting into several dozens killed amid a large emergency response to the scene.

The airstrikes were conducted deep into Syria, in northern Syria’s Aleppo province, and left over 40 people dead. This reportedly included Syrian soldiers, Hezbollah militants, and civilians. Most international reports are saying 42 were killed, but the Syrian government did not initially give a precise casualty count.

Stillframe of local footage showing massive attack on northern Aleppo.

The anti-Assad opposition and UK-based organization Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) described that the Aleppo attack left the highest number of dead among Syrian soldiers in a single such Israeli attack. While Israel doesn’t typically directly own up to or confirm such attacks on Syrian soil, its military has been conducting sporadic attacks on Syria going back years.

The attack happened in the pre-dawn, overnight hours – with state-run SANA emphasizing that many civilians were killed and wounded, but without giving a figure.

Syria’s defense ministry pointed to the airstrikes having some level of coordination from “terrorist organizations” on the ground which “in conjunction” to the air raid carried out drone attacks, presumably from Al-Qaeda (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) occupied Idlib. Some reports are saying that Israeli warplanes hit a “Hezbollah warehouse” – though there’s no ground confirmation of this.

This new major attack comes the day after Israeli airstrikes on a suburb of Damascus, which reportedly wounded two civilians. Israeli officials and media have long claimed to be waging a campaign against Iranian and IRGC operatives and assets in Syria.

Sky News has verified social media video showing massive explosions from the site of the overnight Aleppo attacks:

After the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack, this ‘counter Iran’ campaign has also focused on Lebanon, where Tehran-backed Hezbollah has entered a hot conflict with Israeli forces along the border.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dominoes Falling As Biden Admin Deals With Twin Energy Crisis In Russia, Middle East 

Dominoes Falling As Biden Admin Deals With Twin Energy Crisis In Russia, Middle East 

A twin crisis is unfolding for the Biden administration as the US tax-payer-funded Ukrainian military bombs key crude refineries deep within Russian territory with suicide drones. The administration has pleaded with the Ukranians to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as this will only contribute to tightening global supplies and push energy prices higher, as well as inflation in the US, hurting Biden’s re-election odds.

Now for the other crisis that’s unfolding in the Middle East: US Vice President Kamala Harris told ABC’s “This Week” that a major attack on the Gazan city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have sought refuge, “would be a huge mistake.”

“We have been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake,” Harris said.

She added: “I have studied the maps – there’s nowhere for those folks to go. And we’re looking at about a million and a half people in Rafah who are there because they were told to go there.”

Harris was asked whether there would be “consequences” from the US on an Israeli counteroffensive in Rafah. She responded, “I am ruling out nothing.”

This comes as The Jerusalem Post said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials say an operation into the southern Gazan city is “imminent.”

Bloomberg quoted Israeli intelligence that estimate about 5,000 to 8,000 Hamas fighters are in Rafah.

As we’ve explained before, in the note titled Terrified” Joe Biden Demands Ukraine Halt Strikes On Russian Refiners As It Is Sending Oil Prices Surging,” Biden’s foreign policy has been and always been about crude markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Port Of Baltimore Paralyzed After Container Ship Strike Collapses Bridge

Port Of Baltimore Paralyzed After Container Ship Strike Collapses Bridge

Update (0645 ET):

A massive container ship chartered by Maersk and moving outbound from the Port of Baltimore struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge around 0130 ET. The bridge collapse has paralyzed a large swath of the largest inland port on the East Coast. The port is ranked 9th for total dollar value of cargo and 13th for cargo tonnage among US ports.

Governor Wes Moore released a statement on the collapse, declaring a State of Emergency in Maryland:

“My office is in close communication with US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott, Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski, and the Baltimore Fire Department as emergency personnel are on the scene following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. I have declared a State of Emergency here in Maryland and we are working with an interagency team to quickly deploy federal resources from the Biden Administration. We are thankful for the brave men and women who are carrying out efforts to rescue those involved and pray for everyone’s safety. We will remain in close contact with federal, state, and local entities that are carrying out rescue efforts as we continue to assess and respond to this tragedy.” 

Chief Kevin Cartwright, the Baltimore City Fire Department’s director of communications, told Fox Baltimore that at least 20 people and several vehicles had fallen into the river.

*   *   *

Shocking footage is coming from Baltimore City, home to one of the nation’s largest marine ports. It shows a container ship striking the 1.6-mile-long Francis Scott Key Bridge and collapsing it

Here’s another view of the container ship strike.

“This effectively shuts down the Port of Baltimore completely. I’m truly speechless,” one X user said. 

Fox Baltimore’s Olivia Dance describes the scene as “devastating.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Israel Making Preparations To Launch Invasion Of Southern Lebanon

Israel Making Preparations To Launch Invasion Of Southern Lebanon

Israel has continued signaling that it is preparing to launch a major new operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon following months of tit-for-tat escalation. Some 80,000 Israeli residents whose homes are near the border have remained evacuated since October and November, and are essentially internally displaced. Because of this, pressure has mounted on Israeli leaders to do something that would allow their return, and ensure the security of Israel’s north.

Israeli media, particularly YNet News reported on Sunday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing “contingency plans” for a wide-scale attack on Lebanon. Israeli Army Northern Command head Major General Ori Gordin in a meeting with settler leaders from northern Israel stated, “We are preparing contingency plans to launch an attack in Lebanon. Our commitment, mine, is to change the security situation so that the residents can be returned home.”

Via AFP

YNet further unveiled plans to initiate the army’s “Operation Steady Anchor” which aims to protect civilians during the expected escalation in fighting. Hezbollah is widely estimated to possess over 150,000 rockets – some of which can likely reach Haifa and Tel Aviv.

The operation involves setting up dozens of mass shelters utilizing fortified abandoned buildings and underground parking garages. This is to protect civilians in the instance of a mass Hezbollah rocket barrage. The shelters will be equipped to allow families to take refuge anywhere from a few hours to up to several days.

In another key sign of Tel Aviv’s war preparations, the IDF has been conducing a logistics supply drill focused on its northern bases and positions, and in preparation for a Lebanon offensive This has included practice runs delivering ammo, equipment, water, and fuel to simulated “maneuvering forces” operating in southern Lebanon.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Europe Is Alarmed Enough To Begin Wargaming A Food Crisis

Europe Is Alarmed Enough To Begin Wargaming A Food Crisis

Governments of the European Union are engaged in wargames which simulate and foresee a global food crisis. A mix of major factors including the Russia-Ukraine war and impact on grain supplies there, as well as weather events like El Niño and La Niña and their impact on Latin American soy output, and the anti-EU farmers’ protests which have disrupted supermarket supply chains, have been cause for alarm, European officials say. Of course there’s also the example of how drastically a pandemic can interfere with supply chains. Panic buying was a trend and constant fear within the early months of the coronavirus crisis.

Bloomberg details of a conference held in Brussels last month that envisioned a 2024 to 2025 food shortage in Europe: “…over two days in central Brussels last month, some 60 European Union and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and a few journalists gathered to confront the possibility of something barely on the radar a few years ago: a full-blown food crisis.”

Getty Images

Piotr Magnuszewski, a systems modeler and game designer who helped put the conference gaming scenario together told participants to “Expect a level of chaos” and cautioned, “You may be confused at times and not have enough information.”

As the report underscores, what’s remarkable about this is the fact that a continent which stands out as among the best-fed regions in the world is now busy stress testing its food system.

Below are some of the scenarios put before participants in the wargaming event last month:

* * *

Harvest failures:

“And so, it’s 2025 and there are more harvest failures. They impact animal feed prices, which curbs livestock and fish production. Some ships carrying crops turn away from Europe to cater to higher bidders elsewhere.”

Palm oil exports cut:

…click on the above link to read the rest…

World On Threshold Of Natural Hydrogen “Gold Rush,” Geologists Say

World On Threshold Of Natural Hydrogen “Gold Rush,” Geologists Say

Speaking this weekend at a Denver meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, geologists heralded a coming, game-changing surge in mankind’s harvesting of a resource long thought impractical to collect: naturally-occurring or “geologic hydrogen.” 

The scientists provided a first look at the findings of an as-yet-unpublished study performed by the US Geological Survey (USGS). The key takeaway: naturally-occurring hydrogen is far more abundant near the Earth’s surface than previously known. Researchers say the planet holds upwards of 5 trillion tons of hydrogen, trapped in underground pockets.

“Most hydrogen is likely inaccessible, but a few percent recovery would still supply all projected demand — 500 million tons a year — for hundreds of years,” said Geoffrey Ellis, a USGS research geologist, as reported by the Financial Times. The supply has gone largely unnoticed due to scientists’ earlier assumptions about how natural hydrogen is formed and how it’s degraded. “We haven’t looked for hydrogen resources in the right places with the right tools,” said Ellis.

Better-equipped and more enlightened, geologists are discovering hydrogen reserves in many places, including a chromite mine in Albania from which 200 tons are flowing every year.

Today, hydrogen used as a fuel or industrial material is primarily produced by chemically altering gas principally composed of methane. When resulting carbon emissions are captured, the product is called “blue hydrogen.” When they’re not, it’s called “grey hydrogen.” In 2022, grey hydrogen accounted for 92% of the hydrogen market by value. “Green hydrogen,” which results when water molecules are split via electrolysis in a process powered by renewable energy, is still marginal.

Naturally occurring geologic hydrogen is called “gold hydrogen,” and the geologists say it has a better ecological-impact profile than blue or even green hydrogen: Electrolysis requires a large amount of electricity.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

“F**k Around & Find Out”: Truckers Warn Loads To NYC Will Be Rejected Starting Monday

“F**k Around & Find Out”: Truckers Warn Loads To NYC Will Be Rejected Starting Monday

Update (Sunday):

Trending on X this morning:

Google search trends for “trucker boycott” surging across nation:

And “boycott NYC”…

“I’m a trucker, and I stand with the boycott. Time to show the corrupt we run this country. Not them,” one X user said.

Besides New York City, truckers on X call for drivers to boycott liberal cities.

“Liberals laugh at the thought of a trucker boycott of NYC. A few years ago, a trucker boycott brought the state of Colorado to its knees. MAGA patriots make this country run. Liberals make our coffee,” another X user said.

What happens if trucks stopped?

What others are saying.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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