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Why it (sort of) makes sense for the US to impose tariffs
Why it (sort of) makes sense for the US to impose tariffs Nearly everyone wonders, “Why is Donald Trump crazy enough to impose tariffs on imports from other countries? How could this possibly make sense?” As long as the world economy is growing rapidly, it makes sense for countries to cooperate with each other. With the […]
The climate change story is half true
The climate change story is half true The climate change story is true is some respects: The climate is indeed changing. And CO2 emissions do seem to affect climate. Burning fossil fuels does indeed make a difference in CO2 levels. The problem I have with the climate change story is that it paints a totally inaccurate […]
The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels
The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, […]
A Different View of Venezuela’s Energy Problems
A Different View of Venezuela’s Energy Problems It would be easy to write a story about Venezuela’s energy problems and, in it, focus on the corruption and mismanagement that have taken place. This would make it look like Venezuela’s problems were different from everyone else’s. Taking this approach, it would be easy to argue that the […]
Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?
Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal? Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data (for example, this post and this post), this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall […]
How the Peak Oil story could be “close,” but not quite right
How the Peak Oil story could be “close,” but not quite right A few years ago, especially in the 2005-2008 period, many people were concerned that the oil supply would run out. They were concerned about high oil prices and a possible need for rationing. The story was often called “Peak Oil.” Peak Oil theorists have also […]
2019: World Economy Is Reaching Growth Limits; Expect Low Oil Prices, Financial Turbulence
2019: World Economy Is Reaching Growth Limits; Expect Low Oil Prices, Financial Turbulence Financial markets have been behaving in a very turbulent manner in the last couple of months. The issue, as I see it, is that the world economy is gradually changing from a growth mode to a mode of shrinkage. This is something like […]
Electricity won’t save us from our oil problems
Electricity won’t save us from our oil problems Almost everyone seems to believe that our energy problems are primarily oil-related. Electricity will save us. I recently gave a talk to a group of IEEE electricity researchers (primarily engineers) about the current energy situation and how welcoming it is for new technologies. Needless to say, this group did […]
Low Oil Prices: An Indication of Major Problems Ahead?
Low Oil Prices: An Indication of Major Problems Ahead? Many people, including most Peak Oilers, expect that oil prices will rise endlessly. They expect rising oil prices because, over time, companies find it necessary to access more difficult-to-extract oil. Accessing such oil tends to be increasingly expensive because it tends to require the use of greater […]
Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems
Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems The world economy seems to be seriously ill. The problem is not overly high oil prices, but that does not rule out energy as being a major underlying problem. Two of the symptoms of the economy’s malaise are slow wage growth and increasing wage disparity. Tariffs […]
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 2
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 2 The world economy can appear to be operating quite well but can be hiding a major problem that causes it to be fragile. My presentation The World’s Fragile Economic Condition (PDF) explains why we should expect financial problems if energy consumption stops growing sufficiently rapidly. In fact, a global […]
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1 Where is the world economy heading? In my opinion, a large portion of the story that we usually hear about how the world economy operates and the role energy plays is not really correct. In this post (to be continued in Part 2 in the near future), I […]
Introduction to the “World’s Fragile Economic Condition”
Introduction to the “World’s Fragile Economic Condition” I will be giving a presentation to a group of casualty actuaries on September 17 called “The World’s Fragile Economic Condition.” I plan to write up the presentation in two posts, one covering the first three of the six sections of the presentation, and the second one covering […]
How energy shortages really affect the economy
How energy shortages really affect the economy Many people expect energy shortages to lead to high prices. This is based on their view of what “running out” of oil might do to the economy. In this post, I look at historical data surrounding inadequate energy supply. I also consider some of the physics associated with the […]
Supplemental energy puts humans in charge
Supplemental energy puts humans in charge Energy is a subject that is greatly misunderstood. Its role in our lives is truly amazing. We humans are able to live and move because of the energy that we get from food. We count this energy in calories. Green plants are also energy dependent. In photosynthesis, plants use energy […]
