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Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2016
Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2016 Market fundamentals point to chronic over-supply of crude oil throughout 2016. The technicals point to the makings of an oil price rally. A strong price rally from current levels may extend the situation of chronic over-supply that may have a debilitating impact on the oil price and the oil industry for […]
The Global Economy’s New Abnormal
The Global Economy’s New Abnormal NEW YORK – Since the beginning of the year, the world economy has faced a new bout of severe financial market volatility, marked by sharply falling prices for equities and other risky assets. A variety of factors are at work: concerns about a hard landing for the Chinese economy; worries that growth […]
The Death Throes of Oil
The Death Throes of Oil PRINCETON – The price of oil is often regarded as a sort of thermometer to measure the health of the world economy. What is less often noted is that it can also serve as a barometer – warning of approaching geopolitical storms. Indeed, the dramatic plunge in the price of […]
Hottest Year Ever Recorded + Collapsing Oil Prices = Broken Fossil Fuel Economy
Hottest Year Ever Recorded + Collapsing Oil Prices = Broken Fossil Fuel Economy “I read the news today, oh boy.” —John Lennon Two overlapping news stories in the past few weeks must focus our attention on the need to move away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible and to transition our global economy to […]
More Oil and Gas Bankruptcies Are Assured
More Oil and Gas Bankruptcies Are Assured 2015 was a terrible year for energy investors, but many investors and even corporate officers may be deluding themselves in believing that if they simply hold on, the good times will return. The reality is that for many oil companies, the future is already written. In the last […]
Oil a Load of Nonsense
OIL A LOAD OF NONSENSE “The media select, they interpret, they emotionalize and they create facts.. The media not only reduce reality by lowering information density. They focus reality by accumulating information where “actually” none exists.. A typical stock market report looks like this: Stock X increased because.. Index Y crashed due to.. Prices Z […]
Alberta Loses Most Jobs In 34 Years As Oil Crunch Cripples Labor Market
Alberta Loses Most Jobs In 34 Years As Oil Crunch Cripples Labor Market Times are tough in Alberta and to be sure, we’ve piled it on heavy when it comes to cataloguing the long list of pitiable outcomes that have accompanied crude’s steep slide. The province is at the center of Canada’s dying oil patch […]
Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating Economy
Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating Economy Fed officials and financial news reporters are collectively wondering why the economy seems to be slowing down, even though lower oil and gasoline prices ought to be a stimulative factor. If consumers are spending less of their money on gasoline, then they ought to have more to […]
Only Recession Can Prevent An Oil Price Spike
Only Recession Can Prevent An Oil Price Spike The biggest result from the collapse in oil prices could be a future price spike. Oil prices at $30 per barrel have put most producers under water. That has led to austere budgets and severe cuts to spending. Wood Mackenzie recently estimated that $380 billion in major […]
Low oil prices, budget deficits and OPEC
Low oil prices, budget deficits and OPEC In November 2014 the OPEC countries met in Vienna and agreed to keep pumping oil to maintain their market share rather than cut production to support the oil price. In a postwritten a month later I addressed the question of how these countries were positioned to withstand an extended […]
OPEC’s Trillion Dollar Mistake
OPEC’s Trillion Dollar Mistake A few days after Christmas I appeared on CNBC Asia’s Squawk Box to discuss the volatility in the oil market. Bernie Lo asked a question about OPEC’s strategy, and I characterized their decision to defend market share as “a big, costly mistake” that had already cost the group over $500 billion in 2015 […]
Economic Activity Is Slowing Down Much Faster Than The Experts Anticipated
Economic Activity Is Slowing Down Much Faster Than The Experts Anticipated We have not seen global economic activity fall off this rapidly since the great recession of 2008. Manufacturing activity is imploding all over the planet, global trade is slowing down at a pace that is extremely alarming, and the Baltic Dry Index just hit another […]
Can lower oil prices cause a recession?
Can lower oil prices cause a recession? Donald Luskin writes in the Wall Street Journal: The global economy is slipping into recession. The evidence is showing up in all the usual ways: slowing output growth, slumping purchasing-manager indexes, widening credit spreads, declining corporate earnings, falling inflation expectations, receding capital investment and rising inventories. But this is […]
Oil Crash Only The Tip Of The Iceberg
Oil Crash Only The Tip Of The Iceberg We may be enjoying amazingly low prices at the gas pump, but as oil prices continueing to slide we must also remember the catastrophic events that have followed almost every drastic oil price slump in the past. At this point, it’s not likely a question of ‘if’, […]
Canada’s “Other” Problem: Record High Household Debt
Canada’s “Other” Problem: Record High Household Debt Earlier today, the Bank of Canada surprised some market participants by failing to cut rates. True, the loonie was plunging and another rate cut might very well have accelerated the decline, further eroding the purchasing power of Canadians who are already struggling to keep up with the inexorable rise […]
