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How Much More Extreme Can Markets Get?
How Much More Extreme Can Markets Get? These charts help us understand that a top is not just price, but a reversal in extremes of margin debt, valuation and sentiment. In blow-off tops, extremes of valuation, complacency and margin debt can always shoot beyond previous extremes to new extremes. This is why guessing when the blow-off […]
Surplus Repression and the Self-Defeating Deep State
Surplus Repression and the Self-Defeating Deep State The nation is wallowing self-piteously in a fetid trough of denial and adolescent rage/magical thinking now that the nation’s bogus, debt-based “prosperity” has crashed and cannot be restored. If you type Deep State into the custom search window in the right sidebar, the search results fill 10 pages. I think it […]
The Case for Nationalizing Monsanto
The Case for Nationalizing Monsanto Ridding the world of Monsanto via a state buy-out would be a boon to humanity. Capitalism fails in two situations: monopoly and state-capital cronyism. Monopoly extinguishes competition and that effectively extinguishes capitalism. When the elites of the state and private capital collude, i.e. crony capitalism, the few gain power and wealth […]
Stocks and Bonds Are Due for a Generational Crash of 75%
Stocks and Bonds Are Due for a Generational Crash of 75% From the point of view of history, a reversion to generational lows is inevitable, and a valuation level around 50% of GDP for stocks is a fair target. If we look back to 1981 valuations of stocks and bonds as a guide to valuations […]
Bank Reserves and Loans: The Fed is Pushing On a String
Bank Reserves and Loans: The Fed is Pushing On a String The money multiplier effect no longer works. As you (hopefully) know, we live in a fractional reserve banking system: if the bank is required to have $1 in cash reserves for every $10 in loans, it means the bank creates $10 of new money when it issues a […]
Wedges and Triangles: Big Move Ahead?
Wedges and Triangles: Big Move Ahead? The central bank high is euphoric, the crash and burn equally epic. Just out of curiosity, I called up a few charts of key markets: stocks (the S&P 500), volatility (VIX), gold and the U.S. dollar (UUP, an exchange-traded fund for the dollar). Interestingly, all of these charts displayed some […]
Ten Wonderful Things I’m Grateful For (Irony Alert)
Ten Wonderful Things I’m Grateful For (Irony Alert) Being grateful boosts your happiness. Ten wonderful things I’m grateful for. Since every volume on the nearly endless shelf of pop psychology self-help books recommends working up some gratitude as the key to happiness, I’ve conjured up a list of what I’m grateful for. (Please turn your irony […]
Income, Education and Inequality in the “Recovery”: Prepare to be Surprised
Income, Education and Inequality in the “Recovery”: Prepare to be Surprised Note to the higher education industry: issuing diplomas doesn’t magically create new jobs in the real world. By virtually any standard, wealth inequality has soared to historic levels in the six years of “recovery” since the Great Recession of 2008-09. Economist Emmanuel Saez, who has […]
The Global Problem: Monetary Policy Can’t Fix an Economy’s Structural Problems
The Global Problem: Monetary Policy Can’t Fix an Economy’s Structural Problems When we look back from 2025, it will be painfully obvious that central bank policies exacerbated the systemic crises that brought down the global financialization machine. What with all the praise being heaped on central banks for “saving” the world from economic doomsday in […]
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Prosperity Amidst the Ruins
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Prosperity Amidst the Ruins. The fundamental problem facing the global economy is not slow economic growth but political inequality. It’s striking: as economies stagnate, the top tier is living even larger while the low-income masses sink further into marginalized poverty. I call this widening divide between the vested interests/wealthy and the rest of […]
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: In Uncharted Waters
ftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: In Uncharted Waters. What I see as extremes that must necessarily end badly, others see as mere extensions of recently successful policies and trends. A long-time reader recently chastised me for using too many maybe’s in my forecasts. The criticism is valid, as “on the other hand” slips all too easily from qualifying a position […]
