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“GDP Growth Driving Rates Higher!” – Is That True?
“GDP Growth Driving Rates Higher!” – Is That True? “Peter Cook is the author of the‘Is That True?’ series of articles, which help explain the many statements and theories circulating in the mainstream financial media often presented as “truths.” The motives and psychology of market participants, which drives the difference between truth and partial-truth, are […]
Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics…And The CPI
Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics…And The CPI The first three of those words are attributed to the British Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli, and also sometimes associated with Mark Twain. You know our skepticism of most government data, especially the BLS calculation of inflation in consumer goods and services. The data are so massaged by seasonal and […]
Can We Ascertain the Facts of Reality in Economics by Means of Mathematics?
CAN WE ASCERTAIN THE FACTS OF REALITY IN ECONOMICS BY MEANS OF MATHEMATICS? It is generally held that by means of statistical and mathematical methods one can organize historical data into a useful body of information, which in turn can serve as the basis for the assessments of the state of the economy. It is […]
Misleading with Numbers: It’s Worse When the Government Does It
Misleading with Numbers: It’s Worse When the Government Does It Major international comparisons have long concluded that Americans’ ability to effectively utilize mathematics is inadequate. Such conclusions divide students, parents, teachers and administrators into camps that share little more than blaming others for the problems. However, it is unclear whether all the finger-pointing indicates a […]
The Greek Fraud Reads Like a Crime Novel
The Greek Fraud Reads Like a Crime Novel Tamara de Lempicka The refugees 1937Note: I feel kind of sorry this has become such a long essay. But I still left out so much. You know by now I care a lot about Greece, and it’s high time for another look, and another update, and another […]
Rising sea-levels in the Indian Ocean due to man-made “adjustments” not CO2
Rising sea-levels in the Indian Ocean due to man-made “adjustments” not CO2 PMSML stands for Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, though there is nothing permanent about sea-level data — like all obedient climate change data, it’s subject to change fifty years later – and the adjustments are as large as the trends. We’ve seen […]
How Much Illusion in GDP? What You See Is Not What You Get
How Much Illusion in GDP? What You See Is Not What You Get Oh, the revisions. The US economy, as measured by “real” GDP (adjusted for a version of inflation) grew 0.74% in the third quarter, compared to the prior quarter. That was a tad slower than the 0.76% growth in Q2, but up from […]
Lies And Distractions Surrounding The Diminishing Petrodollar
Lies And Distractions Surrounding The Diminishing Petrodollar There are a few important rules you have to follow if you want to join the consortium of mainstream economic con-men/analysts. Take special note if you plan on becoming one of these very “special” people: 1) Never discuss the reality that government fiscal statistics are not the true […]
What Should Be the Criteria for Model Selection?
WHAT SHOULD BE THE CRITERIA FOR MODEL SELECTION? In order to make the data “talk,” economists utilize a range of statistical methods that vary from highly complex models to a simple display of historical data. It is generally held that by means of statistical correlations one can organize historical data into a useful body of […]
GDP Is Bogus: Here’s Why
GDP Is Bogus: Here’s Why Here’s a chart of our fabulous always-higher GDP, adjusted for another bogus metric, official inflation. The theme this week is The Rot Within. The rot eating away at our society and economy is typically papered over with bogus statistics that “prove” everything’s getting better every day in every way. The […]
Three Massive Bubbles in 17 Years: When Will This One Bust? A 60% Decline Coming?
Three Massive Bubbles in 17 Years: When Will This One Bust? A 60% Decline Coming? John Hussman’s presents a message no one wants to hear because nearly everyone is too busy believing for the third time in 17 years that “It’s different this time”. Last week Hussman wrote about Valuations, Sufficient Statistics, and Breathtaking Risks. This […]
Uncertainty and the Humility of Forecasting an Unknowable Future
Uncertainty and the Humility of Forecasting an Unknowable Future While we’re being reassured that all these grandiose promises are resting on trends that are as reliably predictable as the tides, the next easily predictable crisis will very likely reveal the trends are speculative bubbles that will predictably burst in a devastating reversion. Certainty and uncertainty […]
Ed Butowsky: Calculating The True Cost of Living
Ed Butowsky: Calculating The True Cost of Living Why it’s much higher than we’re told/sold Over the past decade, we’ve been told that inflation has been tame — actually below the target the Federal Reserve would like to see. But if that’s true, then why does the average household find it harder and harder to […]
Magical mathematics
Magical mathematics Recently I got into a spot of bother on Twitter (it’s easily done) after I wrote an essay criticising an astonishingly bad newspaper article by one Leigh Phillips. The thing is, I hadn’t read his book and, silly me, I didn’t realise that you’re not supposed to criticise people’s newspaper articles until you’ve read their books. Well, […]
