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The Turkish Emerging Market Timebomb
YASIN AKGUL/AFP/Getty Images The Turkish Emerging Market Timebomb As the Turkish lira continues to depreciate against the dollar, fears of a classic emerging-market crisis have come to the fore. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s populist economic policies have finally caught up to him, and sooner or later, he will have to make nice with his […]
Learning from America’s Forgotten Default
Bettmann/Getty Images Learning from America’s Forgotten Default One of the most pervasive myths about the United States is that the federal government has never defaulted on its debts. There’s just one problem: it’s not true, and while few people remember the “gold clause cases” of the 1930s, that episode holds valuable lessons for leaders today. […]
Will Trump Launch a Currency War, Too?
China Photos/Getty Images Will Trump Launch a Currency War, Too? Last month, Donald Trump personally announced a series of import tariffs and other measures to restrict the flow of Chinese goods and capital into the United States. Clearly, Trump views China as a significant economic threat, so it may be only a matter of time […]
Liberal Totalitarianism
Paco Freire/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Liberal Totalitarianism It used to be an axiom of liberalism that freedom meant inalienable self-ownership. But liberal individualism seems to have been defeated by a totalitarianism that grew out of its own success at legitimizing the encroachment of branding and commodification into our personal space. LISBON – It used […]
The Fed Should Be Careful What It Wishes For
SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images The Fed Should Be Careful What It Wishes For Major central banks’ fixation on inflation betrays a guilty conscience for serially falling short of their targets. It also raises the risk that in fighting the last war, they will be poorly prepared for the next – the battle against too-high inflation. CAMBRIDGE […]
Crime and No Punishment for the Iraq War
STEPHEN JAFFE/AFP/Getty Images Crime and No Punishment for the Iraq War It is unlikely that former US President George W. Bush or any member of his administration will ever stand trial for initiating a war of aggression in Iraq. But it is still worth recounting the illegality of that act, not least because it is […]
Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony?
STR/AFP/Getty Images Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony? As artificial intelligence reshapes the global economy, economists who once argued that China’s massive population would propel it to superpower status should rethink that assumption. In fact, as the global economy reaches higher stages of development, China’s labor advantage today could become a handicap tomorrow. […]
Whatever Happened to Saving for a Rainy Day?
Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Whatever Happened to Saving for a Rainy Day? The US will be paying for its current fiscal excesses with the promise of future payments. But inefficient economic stimulus now will not give future generations the productive resources needed to make good on it. CAMBRIDGE – More than a decade […]
The Real Engine of the Business Cycle
MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images The Real Engine of the Business Cycle A valuable lesson from the Great Recession is that credit-supply expansions play a key role in subsequent recessions. When lenders make credit more available or more affordable, households respond by taking on debt, which drives up aggregate demand – that is, until the music stops. […]
Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth
Yegor Aleyev\TASS via Getty Images Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth Artificial intelligence researchers and conventional economists may have very different views about the impact of new technologies. But right now, and forgetting the possibility of an existential battle between man and machine, it seems quite plausible to expect a significant pickup in productivity growth […]
The Fed Should Be Careful What It Wishes For
SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images The Fed Should Be Careful What It Wishes For Major central banks’ fixation on inflation betrays a guilty conscience for serially falling short of their targets. It also raises the risk that in fighting the last war, they will be poorly prepared for the next – the battle against too-high inflation. CAMBRIDGE […]
The Myth of Sound Fundamentals
Cem Ozdel/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images The Myth of Sound Fundamentals The recent correction in the US stock market is now being characterized as a fleeting aberration – a volatility shock – in what is still deemed to be a very accommodating investment climate. In fact, for a US economy that has a razor-thin cushion of saving, […]
Exposing Africa’s Manmade Water Crisis
Exposing Africa’s Manmade Water Crisis The imminent shutdown of Cape Town’s piped water network should serve as a wake-up call for all of Africa to overhaul urban water-management systems. Unfortunately, like Africa’s water resources themselves, Cape Town’s crisis seems likely to be wasted. About a decade ago, at a meeting of South African mayors convened […]
The Irresponsible ECB
Daniel Roland/AFP/Getty Images The Irresponsible ECB Ultra-loose monetary policy stopped being appropriate long ago, and is especially inadvisable now, with the global economy – especially the developed world – experiencing an increasingly strong recovery. As recent stock-market turbulence shows, refusal to normalize policy faster is drastically increasing the risks to financial stability. FRANKFURT – The Dow […]
Are Oil Prices Heading for Another Spike?
Joe Sohm/Visions of America/UIG via Getty Images Are Oil Prices Heading for Another Spike? The decline in the dollar’s exchange rate seems to have gathered momentum, in part because the person who has his signature on US currency, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, seems unperturbed by its weakness. If it continues, will energy costs spiral upward? […]
