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The Energy Transition: Who has the right to speak?

The Energy Transition: Who has the right to speak? Italy is not a windy country and it relies mainly on the sun for its renewable energy. Nevertheless, some spots of the Appennini mountains are swept by enough wind to make it possible to build wind plants. In the picture, you see the wind farm of Montemignaio, […]

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The epidemic in the US: a comment by the virologist Guido Silvestri

The epidemic in the US: a comment by the virologist Guido Silvestri Many have noted the spike in the number of coronavirus cases observed in the United States. The fear is, obviously, that this increase will result in a corresponding spike in the number of deaths after some delay. The virologist Guido Silvestri wrote a comment in […]

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You are What you Read: How to Manage your Personal Echo Chamber

You are What you Read: How to Manage your Personal Echo Chamber Mr. Trump has often being accused of “lying” in his many speeches and tweets. For sure, much of what he says can be said to be “contrary to fact.” But is the president really lying or is he simply stating what he thinks […]

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A question you always wanted to ask but you never had the time to: Is the “EROI” of energy studies the same as the R factor in epidemiology?

A question you always wanted to ask but you never had the time to: Is the “EROI” of energy studies the same as the R factor in epidemiology? There is a certain logic in the way the universe works and so it is not surprising that the same models can describe phenomena that seem to […]

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How catalytic events change the course of history: From the 9/11 attacks to the coronavirus pandemic

How catalytic events change the course of history: From the 9/11 attacks to the coronavirus pandemic The 9/11 attacks of 2001 are classic examples of “catalytic events” that change the course of history. They can be seen as triggers for “Seneca Collapses,” sudden and catastrophic, they are well described by Seneca’s words, “the way to […]

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Victor Gorshkov: a life for the biosphere.

Victor Gorshkov: a life for the biosphere. The basic concept of the biotic regulation of Earth’s temperature according to Gorshkov et al, 2002. The figure shows the potential function U(T) for the global mean surface temperature. Stable states correspond to pits, unstable states to hills. The modern value of +15°C (288 K) approximately corresponds to an unstable […]

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The Great EROEI Scam: Are renewables a good idea?

The Great EROEI Scam: Are renewables a good idea? The cheetah in the figure knows very well that it cannot spend more energy in chasing the impala than the impala can provide once eaten (in other words, the cheetah needs an energy return on the investment (EROEI) >1). Carnivores make no calculations about that question, they […]

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Small deaths and the real death: how humans are failing

Small deaths and the real death: how humans are failing Guest post by Federico TabelliniThis article was originally published last year on the Italian blog ‘Effetto Cassandra’. I repropose it here because I think the coronavirus crisis has made it somehow more relevant. The current situation raises new questions: is this new crisis just another ‘small death’ […]

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Airline transportation after the epidemic. The problem is being solved, but not the way you would have imagined

Airline transportation after the epidemic. The problem is being solved, but not the way you would have imagined That’s how a hydrogen-powered plane could look like. Honestly, it is not very impressive: it looks more like an Elvis sighting and one may even reasonably doubt that this thing could fly. If it were easy to […]

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The most accurate model-based prediction of all times

The most accurate model-based prediction of all times The “base case” scenario from the 1972 edition of “The Limits to Growth.” This scenario described the trajectory of the world’s economy on the basis of the data and assumptions that were judged to be the most reliable ones. This run might turn out to have been […]

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Collapse: the way we imagined it, and the way it was.

Collapse: the way we imagined it, and the way it was. Even those of us who could see some kind of collapse coming (the “collapsniks”) were taken by surprise by the form it took. But, as always, for everything that happens there has to be a reason for it to happen. Above: the Seneca Curve. Collapses […]

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Why Italians are not singing anymore: the problem of a weak state

Why Italians are not singing anymore: the problem of a weak state Shows of brutality are used by politicians to look “tough on crime,” but they are a mark of weakness, not of strength. Something similar has happened in Italy where a weak government imposed harsh confinement measures on citizens. They didn’t arrive to force […]

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How effective is a hard lockdown against the COVID epidemics? The data say not so much

How effective is a hard lockdown against the COVID epidemics? The data say not so much Data about the mortality of the coronavirus epidemic start being available. Above, a list of mortality rates for European countries taken from theInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington. It is not the complete data […]

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Collapse: The Coronavirus is not a Cause, it is a Trigger

Collapse: The Coronavirus is not a Cause, it is a Trigger Is the epidemic going to cause civilization to collapse? It may happen for good reasons This is a version of the article that I published on the English version of “Al Arabiya” On March 26, 2020. It is not the same text I published there […]

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Collapse: Where can we find a safe refuge?

Collapse: Where can we find a safe refuge? Does it make sense to have a well-stocked bunker in the mountains to escape collapse? Sometimes, you feel that the world looks like a horror story, something like Lovecraft’s “The Shadow Over Innsmouth..” Image from F.R: Jameson. Being the collapsnik I am, a few years ago I had […]

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