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The IEA’s Oil Production Predictions for 2016

The IEA’s Oil Production Predictions for 2016 The IEA Oil Market Report, full issue, is now available to the public. Some interesting observations: Non-OPEC oil supplies are nevertheless seen sharply lower in December. Overall supplies are estimated to have slipped by more than 0.6 mb/d from the month prior, to 57.4 mb/d. A seasonal decline in […]

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Do Canadians Want To Stay In The Oil Business?

Do Canadians Want To Stay In The Oil Business? The Canadian oilpatch is facing unprecedented challenges from uncontrollable forces outside our borders where oil prices and the vast majority of supply and demand are determined. There are a variety of variables. A light tight oil boom in the U.S. adding production in volumes not so […]

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Oil a Load of Nonsense

OIL A LOAD OF NONSENSE “The media select, they interpret, they emotionalize and they create facts.. The media not only reduce reality by lowering information density. They focus reality by accumulating information where “actually” none exists.. A typical stock market report looks like this: Stock X increased because.. Index Y crashed due to.. Prices Z […]

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Low oil prices, budget deficits and OPEC

Low oil prices, budget deficits and OPEC In November 2014 the OPEC countries met in Vienna and agreed to keep pumping oil to maintain their market share rather than cut production to support the oil price. In a postwritten a month later I addressed the question of how these countries were positioned to withstand an extended […]

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OPEC’s Trillion Dollar Mistake

OPEC’s Trillion Dollar Mistake A few days after Christmas I appeared on CNBC Asia’s Squawk Box to discuss the volatility in the oil market. Bernie Lo asked a question about OPEC’s strategy, and I characterized their decision to defend market share as “a big, costly mistake” that had already cost the group over $500 billion in 2015 […]

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Oil Crash Only The Tip Of The Iceberg

Oil Crash Only The Tip Of The Iceberg We may be enjoying amazingly low prices at the gas pump, but as oil prices continueing to slide we must also remember the catastrophic events that have followed almost every drastic oil price slump in the past. At this point, it’s not likely a question of ‘if’, […]

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A Closer Look at OPEC

A Closer Look at OPEC Taking a closer look at OPEC. All OPEC and price data below is through December. All production data is in thousand barrels per day. Iran and Libya have had serious political disruptions in their production numbers. Simply adding them to the OPEC numbers distorts the picture. To try to figure […]

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Attention Finally Turns To Saudi Arabia’s “Secret” US Treasury Holdings

Attention Finally Turns To Saudi Arabia’s “Secret” US Treasury Holdings In November of 2014, we announced the quiet death of the petrodollar. The system which underwrote decades of dollar dominance and kept a perpetual bid under USD assets met an untimely demise when the Saudis moved to bankrupt the US shale complex by deliberately suppressing oil prices. […]

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Maduro “Wake Up” Call For OPEC As Venezuela Crude Crashes To 13 Year Lows

Maduro “Wake Up” Call For OPEC As Venezuela Crude Crashes To 13 Year Lows Venezuela’s crude oil basket price collapsed to as low as $20.20 yesterday, according to the socialist utopia’s President Maduro. Having already “passed the point of no return,” Maduro rages that OPEC producers appear to be “finally waking up” to what they have unleashed […]

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The Birth Of The PetroYuan (In 2 Pictures)

The Birth Of The PetroYuan (In 2 Pictures) Give me that!! It belongs to the Chinese now! h/t @FedPorn As we previously detailed,  two topics we’ve deemed critically important to a thorough understanding of both global finance and the shifting geopolitical landscape are the death of the petrodollar and the idea of yuan hegemony.  In November […]

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OPEC, except for Iran, Has Peaked

OPEC, except for Iran, Has Peaked The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out. OPEC took a hit in December, down 205,000 barrels per day. After examining the past and present production numbers, I believe that OPEC, except Iran, has peaked. That is, the combined production from all the other OPEC nations, has peaked. And any additional production […]

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Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem

Why oil under $30 per barrel is a major problem A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it: Oil producers can’t really produce oil for $30 […]

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The Financial Apocalypse Accelerates As Middle East Stocks Crash To Begin The Week

The Financial Apocalypse Accelerates As Middle East Stocks Crash To Begin The Week It looks like it is going to be another chaotic week for global financial markets.  On Sunday, news that Iran plans to dramatically ramp up oil production sent stocks plunging all across the Middle East.  Stocks in Kuwait were down 3.1 percent, […]

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Iran Unleashes Oil Flood, Will Quintuple Crude Revenue In 2016

Iran Unleashes Oil Flood, Will Quintuple Crude Revenue In 2016 On Saturday, Iran marked what President Hassan Rouhani called a “golden page” in the country’s history when the IAEA ruled that Tehran had stuck to its commitments under last year’s nuclear accord. Moments after the ruling was handed down, the US and the EU each […]

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You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight

You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight Kilgore: Smell that? You smell that? Lance: What? Kilgore: Napalm, son.  Nothing else in the world smells like that. – “Apocalypse Now” (1979) Hello, hello, hello, how low? [x3] – Nirvana, “Smells Like Teen Spirit” (1991) Outside the bus the smell of sulfur hit Bond with sickening force.  It was a […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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