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Tag Archives: financial markets
The Fed Is the Bubble
The Fed Is the Bubble Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is often the best explanation. In this case: The Fed panicked in December and by caving to markets reignited the bubble in a major way and now they are losing control as they are trapped and twisted in their own narratives. No rate hikes until […]
Weekly Commentary: Officially on “Periphery” Contagion Watch
Weekly Commentary: Officially on “Periphery” Contagion Watch This week saw all-time highs in the S&P500, the Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq100, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Microsoft’s market capitalization reached $1 TN for the first time. First quarter GDP was reported at a stronger-than-expected 3.2% pace. So why would the market this week increase the probability […]
No Fix for Recession: Without a Financial Crisis, There’s No Central Bank Policy Fix
No Fix for Recession: Without a Financial Crisis, There’s No Central Bank Policy Fix There are no extreme “fixes” to secular declines in sales, profits, employment, tax revenues and asset prices. The saying “never let a crisis go to waste” embodies several truths worth pondering as the stock market nears new highs. One truth is that […]
The Bull(y) Rally
The Bull(y) Rally Something unnatural is going on. “A bully is always a coward.”~ Thomas Chandler Haliburton The current market rally is like a playground bully; shoving to the ground anyone in its path. But like all bullies, the braggadocio belies an underlying cowardice. Those in charge of the status quo must be absolutely terrified […]
Imminent Recession Risk “Doubled” – 3 Signals Sounding the Alarm
Imminent Recession Risk “Doubled” – 3 Signals Sounding the Alarm It’s been more than 10 years since the last economic recession. Since the U.S. economy generally operates in cycles, it looks like the time is drawing near for another. In fact, late last year the Dow Jones took a dive, but that was likely just an appetizer […]
Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible…
Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible… Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible… That is the environment in which the economy is weakening, but investors are pouring into risk assets based on hopes that Central Banks will engage in more stimulus. This is precisely what happened in the […]
Dear Stock Market: You Can’t Have It Both Ways
Dear Stock Market: You Can’t Have It Both Ways Eventually reality will intrude in this pleasant madness. OK, let me see if I have this right: the stock market is soaring because the economy is softening, so the Federal Reserve panicked and went from raising rates to considering cutting rates. It seems markets are now assuming […]
Weekly Commentary: Doing Harm with Uber-Dovish
Weekly Commentary: Doing Harm with Uber-Dovish This week’s FOMC meeting will be debated for years – perhaps even decades. The Fed essentially pre-committed to no rate hike in 2019. The committee downgraded both its growth and inflation forecasts. Having all at once turned of little consequence, we can now dismiss the 3.8% unemployment rate and […]
Nothing Happens, Then Everything Happens
Nothing Happens, Then Everything Happens On the Fits and Starts in Markets and in Life After traveling the world for over five years aboard the HMS Beagle, Charles Darwin returned to England on October 2, 1836. You would think that after half a decade of documenting the unknown flora and fauna of the globe Darwin […]
“Past Is Not Prologue” But Over The Long-Run, We’re All Skeptical
“Past Is Not Prologue” But Over The Long-Run, We’re All Skeptical The last 20 years have been the toughest stretch for US stocks since the Great Depression into World War II. The next 5 years will either confirm investors’ worst fears that stocks are no longer “for the long term” or begin to re-instill confidence in […]
Remember, The Fed Hasn’t Actually Done Anything Yet
Remember, The Fed Hasn’t Actually Done Anything Yet When the financial markets got, um, choppy towards the end of 2018, the Fed caved almost instantly. But only rhetorically. Fed chair Powell promised to stop raising interest rates and shrinking the money supply, and the financial markets, trained to salivate at the sound of Fed happy […]
Technically Speaking: Stuck In The Middle With You
Technically Speaking: Stuck In The Middle With You In this past weekend’s missive, we discussed the market stalling at the 200-dma. To wit: “We said then the most likely target for the rally was the 200-dma. It was essentially the level at which the ‘irresistible force would meet the immovable object.’” “What will be critically important now […]
We’re Flash Crashing to Hell – Jim Sinclair & Bill Holter
We’re Flash Crashing to Hell – Jim Sinclair & Bill Holter Financial writer Bill Holter and renowned gold and financial expert Jim Sinclair warned last summer there were big problems coming in the global financial system. Today, Sinclair says, “We destroyed everything. We not only destroyed the financial markets, we destroyed society. I’m going for […]
Fed Will Crash Markets & Dollar, Gold Protects – John Williams
Fed Will Crash Markets & Dollar, Gold Protects – John Williams Economist John Williams warns the Federal Reserve has painted itself into a very tight no win corner. No matter what the Fed does with rates it’s going to be a disaster. Williams explains, “You had some very heavy selling towards the end of the […]
