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(Kitco News) – China’s massive and sustained central bank gold purchases are raising fears that the country may not only be shoring up its currency but may also be laying the economic groundwork for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, according to a Telegraph report published Tuesday.

“The relentless purchases and the sheer quantity are clear signs that this is a political project which is prioritised by the leadership in Beijing because of what they see is a looming confrontation with the United States,” Jonathan Eyal, associate director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in the UK, told the newspaper. “Of course, it’s connected also to plans for a military invasion of Taiwan.”

China’s gold-buying spree began in October 2022, building up its official reserves to a record high of 2,262 tonnes, valued at $170.4 billion at current prices. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added 27 tonnes of gold in just the first three months of 2024.

The PBoC’s current purchase streak came shortly after the United States and its Western allies froze $350 billion in Russian currency reserves held at foreign central banks in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

“There is absolutely no question that the timing and the sustained nature of the purchases are all part of a lesson that [China] have drawn from the Ukraine war,” Eyal said, adding that China’s burgeoning gold reserves are an attempt to insulate the country from the impact of U.S. dollar sanctions if and when it launches its own invasion.

“It was a major shock that it is possible to take sovereign holdings and freeze them,” Eyal said. “I think that was a fundamental change as far as Xi Jinping was concerned.”

President Xi Jinping devoted a part of his New Year’s address to the nation to calls for reunification with Taiwan.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China can’t quit coal by 2040, researchers say, despite global climate goals

April 28, 2024

China can’t quit coal by 2040, researchers say, despite global climate goals

General view of a coal mine in Yulin city, Shaanxi

BEIJING, April 23 (Reuters) – China’s coal consumption will fall by just one-third by 2040, according to a report by a European consultancy published on Tuesday, threatening climate targets that call for phasing out much of global coal use by 2040.

The International Energy Agency has said that global coal power capacity has to be eliminated by 2040 to keep average global temperature rises within the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

However, Norwegian risk assessment firm DNV said in its report that its findings indicate China’s coal consumption – the world’s biggest – will see a “minor uptick” in the next two years and then fall by one-third by 2040, ending up at around 25% of its peak in 2050.

The findings underscore China’s outlook on fossil fuels. In September, former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua told the COP28 climate talks that it would be “unrealistic to completely phase out fossil fuel energy”.

China will continue using coal despite a massive ramp-up in renewable generation, which will make up 88% of China’s power generation mix in 2050, the report predicts.

China approved another 114GW of coal power plants last year, up 10% from 2022, and the iron and steel sectors are on track to overtake power as the biggest consumers of coal by mid-century. Coal-to-chemicals will also make up a significant share of the remaining demand, according to the report.

Decarbonisation of the steel sector through new methods such as cleaner electric arc furnace technology is lagging in China, research has shown.

Natural gas consumption will stay part of the energy mix with consumption falling only 2% from 2022 levels by 2050, the report said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China evacuates over 100,000 as heavy rain continues to lash south

April 28, 2024

China evacuates over 100,000 as heavy rain continues to lash south

China is facing increasingly extreme weather events as climate change takes its toll.

China has evacuated more than 100,000 people as heavy rain continues to lash the southern province of Guangdong.

Authorities raised the highest level of alarm on Tuesday as the storms showed no sign of letting up. Flooding has already killed four people, with another 10 reported missing, in just the latest episode of extreme weather to hit China as climate change affects the country.

Torrential rains have been swelling rivers in Guangdong, prompting state media to warn of the risk of floods at a level “seen around once a century”.

INTERACTIVE_CHINA_RAIN_APRIL23_2024-1713870044 — (Al Jazeera)

Footage from across Guangdong showed flooded villages, farmland and cities, along with collapsed bridges and floating vehicles. In addition to the 110,000 people who have been evacuated, at least 25,000 are in emergency shelters.

In the provincial capital, Guangzhou, authorities have registered cumulative rainfall of 609mm in April so far, which is already the highest monthly volume since record-keeping began in 1959.

The sustained torrent has hit the Pearl River Delta region, a manufacturing hub and one of the country’s most populated regions, for close to a week.

Home to some 127 million people, the region usually sees heavy rains in about September. It has been experiencing more intense and more frequent rainstorms and floods in recent years.

“Please quickly take precautions and stay away from dangerous areas such as low-lying areas prone to flooding,” authorities in the coastal city of Shenzhen – China’s third largest – said as the red alert was issued.

“Pay attention to heavy rains and resulting disasters such as water logging, flash floods, landslides, mudslides, and ground caving in,” they warned.

Congress Just Supercharged the Dollar’s Downfall

April 26, 2024

Congress Just Supercharged the Dollar’s Downfall

Confiscation, Weaponization, and De-Dollarization

“The dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency is a boon for the United States but a bane for the rest of the world.”

~ Barry Eichengreen

The U.S. Senate has predictably voted to give $95 billion to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, just three days after the House of Representatives green-lit the assistance in a rare Saturday session.

But beyond the big spending, there was a little something tucked into the Ukrainian aid bill that’ll have major implications for you as an American: the confiscation of Russian dollar assets.

The passage of the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) Act, as it’s called, adds a whole new dimension to the story that Matt Smith brought to your attention on Monday.

The Dollar Weapon

Once President Biden signs it into law, he’ll gain the authority to seize more than $6 billion in Russian assets held by U.S. institutions.

Now, in case you’re wondering why Russia held these billions of dollars outside of Russia, it’s because that’s what countries do when they have surplus dollars; they put them to work in the safe and trustworthy nation of America.

The joke’s on you, Russia…

But the $6 billion is just the tip of the iceberg.

You see, it’s not about the amount; it’s about how the U.S. sets a precedent for other Western countries to confiscate the nearly $300 billion in Russian state assets currently frozen under their jurisdiction.

To be fair, it’s not the first instance of the U.S. government’s “weaponization” of the dollar… far from it.

But it has become especially pronounced in recent years, targeting adversaries such as Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Afghanistan, North Korea, China, and, of course, Russia.

But it never affects just these countries alone…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US To Convert Pacific Oil Rigs Into Military Bases as Part of Anti-China Buildup

April 25, 2024

US To Convert Pacific Oil Rigs Into Military Bases as Part of Anti-China Buildup

The idea is to create mobile missile defense systems and resupply bases

The US Navy will convert surplus oil rigs in the western Pacific into mobile military bases as part of the US military buildup aimed at China, The Defense Post reported on Tuesday.

The naval engineering firm Gibbs & Cox developed the concept, known as the Mobile Defense/Depot Platform (MODEP), and presented it earlier this month at the Sea Air Space Expo. The idea is to convert oil rigs into mobile missile defense and resupply bases.

“Our target here is to find a solution to help the challenging problem of having capacity issues in the Western Pacific. For not enough cells, not enough missiles, not enough of being able to keep those ships in the forward station,” Dave Zook, an architect at Gibbs & Cox, told Naval News.

Gibbs & Cox claims that the floating bases would be able to hold 512 vertical launch system cells or 100 large missile launchers, which is five times the capacity of a US Navy destroyer. The idea is to counter China’s ballistic missiles that could take out US warships and bases in the region in the event of an open war.

US military officials have been explicit about the fact that they’re preparing for a direct war with China in the region despite the obvious risk of the conflict quickly turning nuclear. The US has been expanding its military footprint in the Philippines and in Pacific island nations to give China more targets that it will have to hit.

Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, the former head of US Pacific Air Forces who is now the commander of Air Combat Command, made this clear in comments to Nikkei Asia last year.

“Obviously, we would like to disperse in as many places as we can to make the targeting problem for the Chinese as difficult as possible,” Wilsbach said. “A lot of those runways where we would operate from are in the Pacific Island nations.”

China issues highest-level rainstorm warning after fatal Guangdong floods

April 25, 2024

CHINA-GUANGDONG-FLOOD (CN) — GUANGZHOU (Xinhua/Lu Hanxin)

China issues highest-level rainstorm warning after fatal Guangdong floods

More than 100,000 people have been evacuated due to heavy rain and fatal floods in southern China, with the government issuing its highest-level rainstorm warning for the affected area on Tuesday.

Torrential rains have lashed Guangdong province in recent days, swelling rivers and raising fears of severe flooding that state media said could be of the sort only “seen around once a century”.

The megacity of Shenzhen was among the areas experiencing “heavy to very heavy downpours” on Tuesday, the city’s meteorological observatory said, adding the risk of flash floods was “very high”.

It later downgraded its weather warning as the storms weakened, but urged residents to remain vigilant against disasters.

Images from Qingyuan — a city in northern Guangdong that is part of the low-lying Pearl River Delta — showed a building almost completely submerged in a flooded park next to a river.

Official media reported Sunday that more than 45,000 people had been evacuated from Qingyuan, which straddles the Bei River tributary.

State news agency Xinhua said 110,000 residents across Guangdong had been relocated since the downpours started over the weekend.

The floods have claimed the lives of four people, according to state media.

Engulfed lampposts

An AFP team in Qingyuan saw the Bei River running much higher than its usual level on Tuesday evening, with the water almost completely engulfing lampposts on a pedestrianised bank that had been closed to the public.

The rain stopped in the afternoon and the flood water fell slightly, allowing curious onlookers to come and look over the swollen banks.

Li Yan, 52, said he was more concerned about people living down the river than about the continued rainfall forecast for the next few days.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

FBI says Chinese hackers preparing to attack US infrastructure

April 24, 2024

FBI says Chinese hackers preparing to attack US infrastructure

FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies before a House Approbations Subcommittee

Nashville, Tennessee, April 18 (Reuters) – Chinese government-linked hackers have burrowed into U.S. critical infrastructure and are waiting “for just the right moment to deal a devastating blow,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said on Thursday.

An ongoing Chinese hacking campaign known as Volt Typhoon has successfully gained access to numerous American companies in telecommunications, energy, water and other critical sectors, with 23 pipeline operators targeted, Wray said in a speech at Vanderbilt University.

China is developing the “ability to physically wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure at a time of its choosing,” Wray said at the 2024 Vanderbilt Summit on Modern Conflict and Emerging Threats. “Its plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic.”

Wray said it was difficult to determine the intent of this cyber pre-positioning which was aligned with China’s broader intent to deter the U.S. from defending Taiwan.

China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan strongly objects to China’s sovereignty claims and says only the island’s people can decide their future.

Earlier this week, a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said, opens new tab Volt Typhoon was in fact unrelated to China’s government, but is part of a criminal ransomware group.

In a statement, China’s Embassy in Washington referred back to the MFA spokesperson’s comment. “Some in the US have been using origin-tracing of cyberattacks as a tool to hit and frame China, claiming the US to be the victim while it’s the other way round, and politicizing cybersecurity issues.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

AI, Gold and Nuclear War

April 17, 2024

AI, Gold and Nuclear War

So-called artificial intelligence (AI) is taking the world by storm. Meanwhile, gold has shot up like a rocket over the past couple of months.

In mid-February, gold was trading at $1,990. Two months later, gold is trading above $2,400 — a $410 gain in just two months.

So here’s a question:

Is there a connection between AI and gold? It seems like an odd question. But as it turns out, the answer is yes. And surprisingly, there has been for decades. It involves the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

In the early 1980s, the KGB was deeply concerned about the possibility of a nuclear first strike by the United States. At the time, Yuri Andropov was head of the KGB.

Andropov’s fear of a nuclear first strike by the U.S. was based in part on the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan and Reagan’s plan to install Pershing II intermediate-range missiles in Europe.

Those missiles could be armed with nuclear warheads and could strike the Soviet Union within minutes of being launched. This put Soviet nuclear forces on a hair-trigger alert. They adopted a “launch on warning” posture.

This means that as soon as credible evidence of a planned first strike was discovered, the Soviet Union would launch its own first strike to avoid destruction of its forces.

The irony was that the U.S. had no actual plans to launch a first strike, but the Soviet Union didn’t know that. Reagan’s speeches about the “evil empire” did nothing to calm Soviet concerns.

AI and Nuclear Readiness

In response, the Soviets developed a primitive (by today’s standards) AI system called VRYAN. That’s a Russian acronym for: sudden nuclear missile attack.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe’s Metacrisis Just Got Worse

April 17, 2024

Europe’s Metacrisis Just Got Worse

The latest conflict between Iran and Israel just made Europe’s already precarious energy and economic situation a lot worse.

Many analysts and politicians are celebrating Europe’s resilience after losing its natural gas supply from Russia.

“Two years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade in energy products between Russia and the European Union has largely disappeared. The EU has adapted remarkably well to a decoupling that many would have considered impossible.”

Bruegel

There is some truth here but it misses the larger picture. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world has witnessed a major shift in its geopolitical, economic, and social order. These changes have had a particularly large effect in Europe. Events in the Middle East make things even worse.

The Covid-19 Pandemic in 2020 resulted in a re-arrangement of supply chains and trade dependencies, prompting countries to consider the vulnerabilities inherent in globalized production networks. The era of unipolar dominance by the United States has given way to a more multipolar world. The traditional alliances and partnerships that underpinned the post-World War II order are unraveling.

Just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia issued a joint statement declaring that their partnership had “no limits” in opposing NATO expansion. They further stated their intention to reshape the global governance system to be more representative of the changing global landscape, challenging the current US-dominated world order.

In early 2024, the BRICS group of emerging-market nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa–expanded to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt. These countries now hold a dominant position on more than half of the global oil exports, with major implications for oil prices and energy geopolitics…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Most Americans Believe US Will Be in World War Within Next Decade

March 26, 2024

Most Americans Believe US Will Be in World War Within Next Decade

The majority of Americans believe it is likely that the US will be involved in a world war during the coming decade. Under President Joe Biden, the US is preparing for great power wars with Russia and China, engaged in multiple Middle East conflicts, and posturing for a confrontation with Iran and North Korea.

According to a new YouGov poll, 61% of Americans responded that it is very or somewhat likely that a world war would break out in the next five to ten years. About two-thirds of people responding to the poll said they believe the war will turn into a nuclear conflict.

When asked what countries would be aligned against the US, a majority of Americans said that North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Russia, and China. Americans identified NATO members such as France and the UK, as well as Israel and Ukraine, as allies in the coming world war.

Americans are not overly optimistic about the potential conflict. A slight majority believe the US and its allies would defeat Russia. While under half of respondents said the US would lose a war with Russia or against an alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

While most Americans believe a global conflict is on the horizon, they are not interested in fighting the war. More than twice as many respondents said they would refuse service even if drafted than stated, they would volunteer if the war broke out. Americans responded that they were more likely to serve in non-combat roles or if the homeland was threatened.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

“One Of The Most Brilliant Explanations Of The Modern World”: Russell Brand Sits With Tucker Carlson For Explosive Interview

January 31, 2024

“One Of The Most Brilliant Explanations Of The Modern World”: Russell Brand Sits With Tucker Carlson For Explosive Interview

Russell Brand flew too close to the sun, it would seem. Just as the popular British comedian was gaining massive attention for confronting global authoritarianism, he was hit with an onslaught of sexual allegations by anonymous accusers, which were amplified throughout the mainstream media.

Brand, known for his left-leaning ideology, articulate critique of the war in Ukraine, and the history of NATO leading up to said war, drew a clandestine ‘shadow campaign’ against him, which according to Tucker Carlson, “began with governments, not private organizations, but governments, their Intel services and their policy makers.” Brand was even attacked “as a Chinese propagandist” for his views on Ukraine.

“I’ve never been to China. I don’t purport to understand China, certainly don’t advocate for Chinese policy,” Brand told Carlson, who suggested that the ‘Chinese propagandist’ allegations were nothing more than “the early seeds of a very deceptive plant that flowered more than a year later, in September, when you were accused of these crimes,” referring to the sexual assault allegations.

“You were making kind of a remarkable case against the Ukrainian people and certainly not in favor of Russia,” Carlson noted, to which Brand replied: “All we’ve essentially done is listen to brilliant academics talking about the history of NATO and the coup in 2014, in Ukraine, and Putin’s explicit declaration that he would prefer, let’s put it mildly, that Ukraine were not invited into NATO, the sum of the regional disputes, how they’re escalating tensions. This is information that, because of independent media, is available.”

Brand was also attacked after Moderna ‘tracked his content’ during the pandemic, and thinks that we’re at a major inflection point for independent voices.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

As China Stocks Crash, Beijing Proposes Multi-Trillion Market Rescue Package

January 23, 2024

As China Stocks Crash, Beijing Proposes Multi-Trillion Market Rescue Package

Earlier today, we lamented the latest implosion in Chinese markets, which we discussed in “China Stocks Crash Through ‘Snowball Derivatives’ Trigger Levels Overnight“, in which we pointed out the unprecedented failure of the centrally-planned market to halt its collapse be it through short selling bans, or even the latest impotent intervention by the “National Team”, China’s Plunge Protection Team, which today failed to spark even a modest rebound in the relentless selling which had triggered key liquidation levels.

We then summarized just how badly Beijing had boxed itself, noting that “after short selling ban did nothing, China PPT stepped in… and couldn’t do jack. Beijing trapped.” We concluded that “either they watch liquidation cascade as snowball derivatives are knocked in sparking rout and leading to social unrest, or they stop talking and finally do something.”

Well, just a few hours later we were proven correct again, because shortly after China reopened on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that according to “people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified” – i.e., government sources eager to do a market test, China is considering a package of measures to stabilize the plummeting stock market, after earlier attempts to restore investor confidence fell short and prompted Premier Li Qiang to call for “forceful” steps.

Specifically, Beijing is reportedly seeking to “mobilize” about 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion), mainly from the offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises, as part of a stabilization fund to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link; it has also earmarked at least 300 billion yuan of local funds to invest in onshore shares through China Securities Finance Corp. or Central Huijin Investment Ltd.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

China’s Coal Production Hit a New Record High in 2023

January 18, 2024

China’s Coal Production Hit a New Record High in 2023

Higher power demand and efforts to boost energy security pushed China’s coal production to a record-high level in 2023, according to official statistics data published on Wednesday.

Chinese coal output rose by 2.9% year-over-year to 4.66 billion metric tons in 2023, per data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported by Reuters.

Coal imports also rose last year, as some domestic mining operations were suspended for some time in 2023 due to safety inspections and concerns.

Higher demand after the COVID restrictions were lifted and higher domestic coal prices led to record-high coal imports into China, which soared by 61.8% year-on-year to 474.42 million metric tons in 2023, data from the General Administration of Customs showed last week.

In the latter part of 2023, China ramped up coal and natural gas production, imports, and consumption as its electricity demand jumped in the second half and looks to hit a record-high winter peak demand.

Chinese authorities have been keen to avoid a repeat of the 2022 shortages and spiking prices and have instructed utilities and producers to maximize imports and output before the winter.

China continues to rely on coal and coal-fired power generation to meet its growing power demand, and despite being the world’s top investor in solar and wind capacity, it also plans a lot of new coal-fired electricity capacity.

During the first half of 2023 alone, China approved more than 50 GW of new coal power, Greenpeace said in a report this year. That’s more than it did in all of 2021, the environmental campaign group said.

China’s coal demand is expected to drop this year and plateau through 2026, and global demand is set to decline to 2026, “but China will have the last word,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Coal 2023 annual report.

The outlook for coal in China will be significantly affected in the coming years by the pace of its clean energy deployment, weather conditions, and structural shifts in the Chinese economy, according to the agency.

What the “Rules Based International Order” Really Means

December 5, 2023

What the “Rules Based International Order” Really Means

This map, from Multipolarista, shows the US-centred Empire bloc of nations (in red) that subscribe to the US-invented Rules Based International Order. The countries in green do not recognize that order, and they continue to support de facto a UN-centred international system governed by international law.

There was a meeting a couple of years ago between the US and China where the two sides — pro-Empire and pro-Multipolarity — each used their own coded language to express what they had been conditioned, very differently, to believe to be in the best interests of world order and security. Clinton Fernandez, an Australian professor and former intelligence officer, recounts the event in his book Sub-Imperial Power:

AT A HIGH-LEVEL SUMMIT between the United States and China in March 2021, the US Secretary of State said he was ‘committed to leading with diplomacy to advance the interests of the United States and to strengthen the rules-based international order’. The director of China’s Foreign Affairs Commission countered by saying that China and the international community upheld ‘the United Nations–centred international system and the international order underpinned by international law, not what is advocated by a small number of countries of the so-called rules-based international order’.

China was essentially saying that the ‘rules-based international order’ was simply a euphemism for the will of the (US) Empire, and that China would fiercely oppose that Empire in favour of an ‘international order’ underpinned by international law (ie governed, at least ostensibly, in the interests of the people, not that of corporate wealth and power, and based on bilateral negotiations between autonomous nations, not the edicts of Empire).

This is perhaps the ultimate expression of the 21st century’s greatest “clash of ideologies”, one that could quite conceivably end in nuclear annihilation…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Writing’s on the Great Wall for a China Crash

November 1, 2023

The Writing’s on the Great Wall for a China Crash

As the economy continues to implode, capital flight rises.

As the saying goes, if you want to know what’s really going on, follow the money. That catchphrase doesn’t just apply to foreign companies and investors backing out of China. It also applies to the Chinese economy.A No-Confidence Vote

In the midst of widespread economic duress and growing social disruption, following the money trail shows how Chinese investors are voting with their wallets. Consumer spending is down, and the savings rate is up. Capital is flowing out of China any way it can, and it all amounts to a definite no-confidence vote for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).The CCP Tries to Hide the Facts

In true CCP fashion, the state puts the blame for its failed policies on those who point them out. Anyone who mentions the crumbling economy, for example, is guilty of endangering financial stability. Even though the CCP would consider prosecuting journalists and economists who report accurately about the falling employment numbers and the high debt levels that plague local governments, China’s worsening economic conditions are too dramatic and widespread to hide.

Of course, financial stability isn’t threatened by people talking about it. It’s the CCP that’s destroying the economy. Even recent history shows that the less involved the Party is in the economy, the better it performs.

The property market and the development sector are perfect examples, although not the only ones. Both continue to be heavily manipulated by the CCP, and both are hemorrhaging value, as financial ruin in flagship companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden contribute to deteriorating conditions in the wider economy. Completed projects that remain unsold are being demolished, work on existing projects is being halted, and other development plans are being canceled, even as the development companies owe billions to creditors.…click on the above link to read the rest…

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