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Tag Archives: monetary policy
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 29th 2019
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 29th 2019 “I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.” The UK is a curious […]
Weekly Commentary: Fanning the Flames
Weekly Commentary: Fanning the Flames The Federal Reserve abandoned “data dependent” – at least for next week’s FOMC meeting. December futures imply a 1.78% Fed funds rate, up six bps for the week but still 62 bps below today’s 2.40% effective rate. Unless the Federal Reserve has completely caved to the markets, the Committee statement […]
End Game
End Game Well, here we are. All roads have led to here. The combustion case outlined in April, the technical target zone outlined in January of 2018. Trade wars, 20% correction in between, Fed capitulation in response, slowing growth data, inverted yield curves, political volatility, deficit and debt expansion, buybacks. All the big themes that have dominated the […]
The Fed’s Dangerous Game: A Fourth Round of Stimulus in a Single Growth Cycle
The Fed’s Dangerous Game: A Fourth Round of Stimulus in a Single Growth Cycle The longer the signals in capital markets go haywire under the influence of “monetary stimulus,” the bigger is the cumulative economic cost. That is one big reason why this fourth Fed stimulus — in the present already-longest (but lowest-growth) of super-long […]
For The First Time In 6 Years, No Central Bank Is Hiking
For The First Time In 6 Years, No Central Bank Is Hiking The global central bank experiment with renormalization is officially over. After roughly half the world’s central banks hiked rates at least once in 2018, the major central banks have returned to easing mode, and as the chart below shows, for the first time […]
Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet?
Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet? Following the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks bet that greater activism on the part of other policymakers would be their salvation, helping them to normalize their operations. But that activism never came, and central bankers are now facing a lose-lose proposition. ZURICH – In recent years, central […]
“She Has A Flair For Darkness” – Meet The Woman Tasked With Predicting How The Fed Will Blow Up The World
“She Has A Flair For Darkness” – Meet The Woman Tasked With Predicting How The Fed Will Blow Up The World Central bankers have two key roles: the first, and more trivial one, is to set the price of money by adjusting short-term interest rates, something they have been doing since the advent of central […]
Federal Reserve Headlines – Fact or Fiction?
Federal Reserve Headlines – Fact or Fiction? “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” – Jean-Claude Juncker, former President of the Eurogroup of Eurozone finance ministers On July 16, 2019, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans made a series of comments that were blasted across the financial news wires. In the headlines taken from […]
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 23rd 2019
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 23rd 2019 “Caught in the chaos of the market square, I don’t know what, I don’t know why, but something’s wrong down there… “ As we are about to find out… Jokes aren’t so funny when you find yourself to be the butt. How is a whole country going to […]
Why Powell Fears a Gold Standard
Why Powell Fears a Gold Standard Chairman Powell’s testimony last week was closely scrutinized not just for its economic implications but also for its political overtones. Powell cited “trade tensions” as cause for concern about the strength of the global economy. He clearly seemed to be blaming President Trump’s tariffs. But if the tariffs are […]
The Precog Fed: Vice Chair Clarida Says Fed Shouldn’t Wait For Economy To Turn Down To Cut Rates
The Precog Fed: Vice Chair Clarida Says Fed Shouldn’t Wait For Economy To Turn Down To Cut Rates There was something bizarre in yesterday’s latest Beige Book: it painted an unexpectedly strong picture of the economy. Here, again, are the key points we pulled from the summary of various regional Feds’ takes on the current state of […]
The Rise of Insanity
The Rise of Insanity Everybody is trampling all over themselves to raise bullish targets. $SPX 3,300, $SPX 3,350, $SPX 3500, do I hear Dow 31,500? Yes I am. The big driver of course the Fed and central banks cutting rates again to save the global economy. And amid all the hype and excitement you see headlines like […]
Low Yield, No Yield, Negative Yield–Buy Now But Don’t Forget to Sell
LOW YIELD, NO YIELD, NEGATIVE YIELD – BUY NOW BUT DON’T FORGET TO SELL The amount of negative yielding fixed securities has hit a new record The Federal Reserve and the ECB are expected to resume easing of interest rates Secondary market liquidity for many fixed income securities is dying Outstanding debt is setting all-time […]
How Long Can Artificially Low Interest Rates be Maintained?
How Long Can Artificially Low Interest Rates be Maintained? QUESTION: Dear Martin, First let me thank you for your paradigm shifting blog and the incredible conferences you and your team put together. They really are on a level all their own. As we approach the next turning points in the ECM it seems that there […]
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 11 2019 – Man on the Moon Day!
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 11 2019 – Man on the Moon Day! “The Sky is not the limit – there are footprints on the Moon.” So many choices for this morning’s quote. The classic Armstrong “One Step” was too obvious. I did think about “To infinity and beyond”. But the one I chose is […]
