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What Truckers & Railroads Are Saying About the US Economy

What Truckers & Railroads Are Saying About the US Economy They’re a measure of the goods-based economy. Freight shipment volume across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – rose 8.2% in September, compared to a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index. While this is still a big jump, it’s […]

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Implosion of Stock Market Double-Bubble in China Hits New Lows, Authorities Busy Elsewhere Keeping China Miracle from Unraveling

Implosion of Stock Market Double-Bubble in China Hits New Lows, Authorities Busy Elsewhere Keeping China Miracle from Unraveling Bigger issues than propping up the stock market beckon. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped another 2.9% to 2,486.42. In the bigger picture, that’s quite an accomplishment: Lowest since November 27, 2014, nearly four years ago Down […]

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Italy’s Debt Crisis Thickens

Italy’s Debt Crisis Thickens But outside Italy, credit markets are sanguine, and no one says, “whatever it takes.” Italy’s government bonds are sinking and their yields are spiking. There are plenty of reasons, including possible downgrades by Moody’s and/or Standard and Poor’s later this month. If it is a one-notch downgrade, Italy’s credit rating will […]

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Who Bought the $1.6 Trillion of New US National Debt Over the Past 12 Months?

Who Bought the $1.6 Trillion of New US National Debt Over the Past 12 Months? As a flood of US debt washes over the globe, someone has to buy. So far in this fiscal year, which just started on October 1, the US gross national debt – the total debt issued by the US government […]

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Amid Market Rout, Decade of “Financial Repression” Ends, Capital Preservation Suddenly is a Thing

Amid Market Rout, Decade of “Financial Repression” Ends, Capital Preservation Suddenly is a Thing This will dog the stock market going forward. Fixed-income investors – a financially conservative bunch buying Treasury securities, FDIC-insured CDs, and similar products that largely eliminate risk – have been getting crushed for a decade: Except for brief periods when inflation […]

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QE Party Is Drying Up, Even at the Bank of Japan

QE Party Is Drying Up, Even at the Bank of Japan Despite repeated speeches to the contrary. As of September 30, total assets on the Bank of Japan’s elephantine balance sheet dropped by ¥5.4 trillion ($33 billion) from a month earlier, to ¥537 trillion ($4.87 trillion). It was the fourth month-over-month decline in a series […]

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Italy’s Debt Crisis Flares Up, Banks Get Hit, as Showdown with the EU Intensifies

Italy’s Debt Crisis Flares Up, Banks Get Hit, as Showdown with the EU Intensifies Who will blink first? A serious showdown is brewing in the Eurozone as Italy’s anti-establishment coalition government takes on the EU establishment in a struggle that could have major ramifications for Europe’s monetary union. The cause of the discord is the […]

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Loans Sour in Turkey, Inflation Hits 25%, Interest Rates Spike, Fears of Contagion Rise

Loans Sour in Turkey, Inflation Hits 25%, Interest Rates Spike, Fears of Contagion Rise The economic miracle fueled by foreign-currency debt.  The Bank of Turkey’s decision mid-September to hike its policy rate from 17.75% to 24% may have temporarily stemmed the rout in the Turkish lira, but the hiatus is now over. This week, the […]

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The Fed’s QE Unwind Reaches $285 Billion

The Fed’s QE Unwind Reaches $285 Billion The “up to” begins to matter for the first time. The Fed released its weekly balance sheet Thursday afternoon. Over the four-week period from September 6 through October 3, total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $34 billion. This brought the decline since October 2017, when […]

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The Return of “Beyond Petroleum”: All Talk and No Strategy?

The Return of “Beyond Petroleum”: All Talk and No Strategy? BP even changed the logo. “Oil and gas companies are becoming energy companies,” according to Bob Dudley. He heads the giant British oil company, BP, and stated this in a National Public Radio interview. Interestingly, his company under legendary CEO Lord Browne changed its name […]

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US Gross National Debt Jumps by $1.27 Trillion in Fiscal 2018, Hits $21.5 Trillion

US Gross National Debt Jumps by $1.27 Trillion in Fiscal 2018, Hits $21.5 Trillion But wait — these are the Boom Times! The US gross national debt jumped by $84 billion on September 28, the last business day of fiscal year 2018, the Treasury Department reported Monday afternoon. During the entire fiscal year 2018, the […]

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US Dollar Refuses to Die as Global Reserve Currency — But Loses Ground

US Dollar Refuses to Die as Global Reserve Currency — But Loses Ground Chinese RMB gains, but is inconsequential as central banks remain leery. Euro hangs on. Those who’re eagerly awaiting the end of the “dollar hegemony,” or the end of the dollar as the top global reserve currency, well, they’ll need some patience, because […]

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Why Rising Mortgage Rates Threaten Canada’s Banks

Why Rising Mortgage Rates Threaten Canada’s Banks Wolf Richter with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money: Interest rates will continue to rise in the US and Canada. In both countries, potential buyers face affordability issues, which puts a damper on demand. But in Canada, variable-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages dominate (while ARMs are only 6% of […]

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The Fed’s Not Backing Off: Powell’s Standouts & Zingers at the Press Conference

The Fed’s Not Backing Off: Powell’s Standouts & Zingers at the Press Conference US is “on an unsustainable fiscal path, there’s no hiding from it.” I have to say, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is a breath of fresh air when he talks, after the near-physical pain I experienced listening to his last three predecessors. I […]

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Gold in the “Everything Bubble”: Effective Diversification?

Gold in the “Everything Bubble”: Effective Diversification? What do you do when nearly all asset classes are overvalued? Diversification is one of the oldest principles by which people try to hang on to their wealth, however little they might have. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, it goes. Diversification is not designed to […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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