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Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy
Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy The bubbles in assets are supported by the invisible bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Feast your eyes on Housing Bubble #2, a.k.a. […]
What’s Wrong with the Economy: 9 Toxic Dynamics
What’s Wrong with the Economy: 9 Toxic Dynamics These nine dynamics are mutually reinforcing. Beneath the surface signals of an eternally rising stock market and expanding GDP, we all sense something is deeply, systemically wrong with the U.S. economy. These nine structural dynamics generate secondary dynamics, all of which are toxic to social mobility, sustainable […]
The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025
The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025 We’re going to get a synchronized global dynamic, but it won’t be “growth” and stability, it will be DeGrowth and instability. To understand the synchronized global meltdown that is on tap for the 2021-2025 period, we must first stipulate the relationship of “money” to […]
The U.S. Economy In Two Words: Asymmetric Gains
The U.S. Economy In Two Words: Asymmetric Gains The Status Quo is in trouble if the bottom 95% wake up to the asymmetric gains that are the only possible output of our hyper-financialized economy. The core dynamic of the U.S. economy in this era is asymmetric gains: the gains in income, wealth and power are […]
Burrito Index Update: Burrito Cost Triples, Official Inflation Up 43% from 2001
Burrito Index Update: Burrito Cost Triples, Official Inflation Up 43% from 2001 Welcome to debt-serfdom, the only possible output of the soaring cost of living. Long-time readers may recall the Burrito Index, my real-world measure of inflation. The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001 (August 1, 2016). The Burrito Index tracks the […]
How Systems Collapse
How Systems Collapse This is how systems collapse: faith in the visible surface of abundance reigns supreme, and the fragility of the buffers goes unnoticed. I often discuss systems and systemic collapse, and I’ve drawn up a little diagram to illustrate a key dynamic in systemic collapse. The key concepts here are stability and buffers. […]
The Next Recession Will Be Devastatingly Non-Linear
The Next Recession Will Be Devastatingly Non-Linear The acceleration of non-linear consequences will surprise the brainwashed, loving-their-servitude mainstream media. Linear correlations are intuitive: if GDP declines 2% in the next recession, and employment declines 2%, we get it: the scale and size of the decline aligns. In a linear correlation, we’d expect sales to drop […]
Our Economy Is Failing Our Society
Our Economy Is Failing Our Society If we want to extend the opportunities for positive social roles to everyone, we have to change the way money is created and distributed in our economy. One of the most unrecognized dynamics of our era is the structural dependence of our society on our economy. One set of […]
Sustainability Boils Down to Scale
Sustainability Boils Down to Scale Only small scale systems can sustainably impose “skin in the game”– consequences, accountability and oversight. Several conversations I had at the recent Peak Prosperity conference in Sonoma, CA sparked an insight into why societies and economies thrive or fail: It All Boils Down to Scale. In a conversation with a […]
Before You Tell Me What You “Know,” Tell Me Your Sources
Before You Tell Me What You “Know,” Tell Me Your Sources We can no longer trust data and conclusions being published as impartial by institutions that were once trustworthy. When someone says they “know” what’s happening on the ground in Syria, how can we assess the validity of their claim to knowledge, i.e. their claim to […]
Kafka’s Nightmare Emerges: China’s “Social Credit Score”
Kafka’s Nightmare Emerges: China’s “Social Credit Score” China is creating Kafka’s nightmare world as the perfection of centralized control of its citizenry. China is rapidly building out a Total Surveillance State on a scale that far surpasses any government surveillance program in the West. The scope of this surveillance is so broad and pervasive that […]
Taking the Pulse of a Weakening Economy
Taking the Pulse of a Weakening Economy Corporate buybacks provide the key analogy for the economy as a whole. Central banks have been running a grand experiment for 9 years, and now we’re about to find out if it succeeds or fails. For 9 unprecedented years, central banks have pushed the pedal of monetary stimulus […]
What Lies Beyond Capitalism and Socialism?
What Lies Beyond Capitalism and Socialism? The status quo, in all its various forms, is dominated by incentives that strengthen the centralization of wealth and power. As longtime readers know, my work aims to 1) explain why the status quo — the socio-economic-political system we inhabit — is unsustainable, divisive, and doomed to collapse under […]
Why Trade Wars Ignite and Why They’re Spreading
Why Trade Wars Ignite and Why They’re Spreading The monetary distortions, imbalances and perverse incentives are finally bearing fruit: trade wars. What ignites trade wars? The oft-cited sources include unfair trade practices and big trade deficits. But since these have been in place for decades, they don’t explain why trade wars are igniting now. To truly […]
The Genie’s Out of the Bottle: Eight Defining Trends Are Reversing
The Genie’s Out of the Bottle: Eight Defining Trends Are Reversing Though the Powers That Be will attempt to placate or suppress the Revolt of the Powerless, the genies of political disunity and social disorder cannot be put back in the bottle. The saying “the worm has turned” refers to the moment when the downtrodden […]
