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The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis
Carl Court/Getty Images The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis Although the global economy has been undergoing a sustained period of synchronized growth, it will inevitably lose steam as unsustainable fiscal policies in the US start to phase out. Come 2020, the stage will be set for another downturn – and, unlike in […]
“Monetary Buffers Depleted” Boston Fed: Concerns Over Next Recession Mount
“Monetary Buffers Depleted” Boston Fed: Concerns Over Next Recession Mount In a recession, the Fed typically slashes interest rates 5 PP. No such buffer exists. A Fed study looks at the impact. One of the reason the Fed seems desperate to hike rates is they want ammunition to cut rates when the recession hits. Typically, […]
Chart of the Week: Playing With Dominoes
Chart of the Week: Playing With Dominoes The Great “Recession” was never a recession. It was a monetary event first and foremost, and it continues to be eleven years later. That means by and large it has been a failure of imagination. Central bankers say they’ve done this and that, but what they’ve never done, […]
Oil Prices Have Been Rising And $4 A Gallon Gasoline Would Put Enormous Stress On The U.S. Economy
Oil Prices Have Been Rising And $4 A Gallon Gasoline Would Put Enormous Stress On The U.S. Economy Thanks to increasing demand and upcoming U.S. sanctions against Iran, oil prices have been rising and some analysts are forecasting that they will surge even higher in the months ahead. Unfortunately, that would be very bad news […]
The Fed Is on a Collision Course
The Fed Is on a Collision Course Is the Trump economic boom a mirage? The data say yes, but the Fed models say no. The Fed has a long track record of sticking to its model-based approach and missing major turns in the U.S. economy. Current Fed policy will push the U.S. economy to the […]
Irrational Beliefs are Ruling Markets
IRRATIONAL BELIEFS ARE RULING MARKETS To understand the consequences of the credit cycle, we must dismiss pure opinion, and examine the evidence rationally. This article assesses the fate of the dollar on the next credit crisis, a subject of increasing topicality. It concludes that the late stage of the credit cycle has important similarities with […]
Michael Pento: When The Yield Curve Inverts Soon, The Next Recession Will Start
Michael Pento: When The Yield Curve Inverts Soon, The Next Recession Will Start Expected timing: this Fall Collectively, the world’s major central banks have pumped $1.1 trillion into the markets over the past year. The result of all this money printing is now well known: massively inflated real estate, stock and bond asset price bubbles, […]
Legendary Global Investor Warns Of Frightening Recession: “We Don’t Have Any Stabilizers Left”
Legendary Global Investor Warns Of Frightening Recession: “We Don’t Have Any Stabilizers Left” Key asset markets in the United States have reached extremely overbought levels, including everything from stocks to real estate. And while most Americans are feeling positive about economic growth in the near-term, legendary global investor Paul Tudor Jones cautions that the long-term […]
A Made In Canada Recession Story!
A Made In Canada Recession Story! The Canadian economy lost 7,500 jobs last month (May), and unemployment was still at 5.8%. This, despite analyst forecasts that the country would likely add roughly 22,000 jobs to the economy. Rewind to the previous monthly jobs report (April). Analysts had predicted that we would add approximately 20,000 jobs […]
A Hard Rain’s a-Gonna Fall
A Hard Rain’s a-Gonna Fall The prospects for the rest of the year are awful Après moi, le déluge ~ King Louis XV of France A hard rain’s a-gonna fall ~ Bob Dylan (the first) As the Federal Reserve kicked off its second round of quantitative easing in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, hedge fund […]
The Next Recession Will Be Devastatingly Non-Linear
The Next Recession Will Be Devastatingly Non-Linear The acceleration of non-linear consequences will surprise the brainwashed, loving-their-servitude mainstream media. Linear correlations are intuitive: if GDP declines 2% in the next recession, and employment declines 2%, we get it: the scale and size of the decline aligns. In a linear correlation, we’d expect sales to drop […]
Is the US Exporting a Recession?
IS THE US EXPORTING A RECESSION? The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates The ECB and BoJ maintain QE Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US After last week’s ECB meeting, Mario Draghi gave the usual press conference. He confirmed […]
Inflation or Employment
INFLATION OR EMPLOYMENT Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009 Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures Given the official policy response to the Great Financial Recession – a mixture […]
Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead
Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead Fannie Mae forecasts an economic slowdown by 2019 Doug Duncan is not your average beltway economist. The chief economist for Fannie Mae is surprisingly outspoken about the troublesome outlook for the US economy. He’s worried about the rising cost of debt service as outstanding credit continues […]
